What PM Khan’s upcoming activism stands for

Prime Minister Imran Khan has scheduled initially four public gatherings, three in the Punjab and one in Sindh, saying more are to be held in other parts of the country. Is it a reaction to the announcement of the opposition parties to unseat the Prime Minister by a vote of no-confidence or does he think its time to go back to the basics to mobilize his constituency for upcoming local government and then national elections?

The challenges the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf faces after three years in power are real, but they have been with it from the very beginning. It doesn’t have its own majority, and in order to form governments in the Punjab and at the center, it had to make political deals with smaller, regional parties with a history of changing sides, ditching allies and pursuing their own agendas when sharing power with any larger, national party. While in opposition, Khan had used very harsh language against such elements for being turncoats and doing politics without any principles. But with the top public position in sight, he welcomed different factions into the coalition government. Following the script of conventional politics more than his manifesto of change, he gave them important positions in the federal and provincial governments. They know their value in keeping a government in power or causing its downfall by jumping the fence and joining the other side. Whenever any coalition partner wants more for its faction, it goes public against the government with ‘grievances’ and complaints that ‘promises’ made were not ‘fulfilled.’ This type of crude messaging goes to both sides of the political polarization that, for a price, they are available.

From the very beginning, three major opposition parties— the Pakistan Peoples Party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), and the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam— have been making moves to destabilize Imran Khan. First they convened all parties conference to question the legitimacy of the elections, but contradicted themselves by their members taking oath of office for the assemblies. The Jamiat went alone and staged an Azadi (liberation) March in March 2019 just after six months of the formation of the new government. It failed. Next, these parties formed the Pakistan Democratic Movement to stage countrywide demonstrations that were planned to culminate into a ‘long march’ on the capital to cripple the government. Nothing of this sort happened. The gravest setback to the opposition parties was when they were not able to pass a vote of no confidence motion against the Chairman of the Senate where they had the majority. Their efforts have been relentless, but like in the past, the power of the incumbency has prevailed.

The latest move is to bring a no-confidence motion against Imran Khan by winning support of the political allies of the PTI government. In the past, the PMLN and the PPP were divided on the issue of ‘in-house-change’, but they appear be on the same page, at least for now. They need 172 members of the National Assembly to vote against the prime minister. They will remain short of this number as long as the smaller parties with roughly 22 members stay with the government. The moment a significant portion of them cross the floor to the opposition benches, the government will fall, generating a political crisis— a new government or call for fresh elections.

As airing of ‘grievances’ by the coalition partners have become louder and political maneuvering of the opposition parties has accelerated pace, Khan has decided to beat the move by going to grass-root politics. With the media covering his rallies, the opposition figures will lose the public limelight, and if he pulls big crowds, like in the past, his ‘popular image’ will also send a strong message to the smaller parties thinking of rocking his boat.

There is another challenge, perhaps greater than the opposition closing the ranks: inflation, rising prices, perceptions of corruption and poor governance. These are enduring problems of the country, but the PTI rose to power with the manifesto of changing all this. The steps the government has taken to stabilize the economy, effective dealing with the COVID-19 situation or many of the successful welfare programs under the banner of Ehsas haven’t received the publicity that they deserved. On the other hand, the narrative of the opposition of ‘incompetence’ against the government and everyday headlines of ‘rising prices’ gets more coverage, thanks to the media. It is not without reason then that the party trailed second to the JUI in the local government elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

With new activism, Khan wants to take his case to the public, highlighting what he has done, and why he has failed, particularly in holding the corrupt accountable. Much will depend on whether he has retained the trust of the people and if his charisma shines, as it did in the past.

- Rasul Bakhsh Rais is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity” (Oxford University Press, 2017). Twitter: @RasulRais