Can Starmer be the bold leader many Britons crave?

It is quite something to see a British prime minister fighting for his political life a mere 16 months into office. Keir Starmer won a robust majority of 174 seats in July 2024 and that should have extinguished all thoughts of a leadership change. Added to that, the main opposition Conservative Party has been suffering its own existential crisis. Yet, as it stands today, nobody knows who will fall first: Starmer or opposition leader Kemi Badenoch.

Discontent within the Labour Party has just been growing and growing. The mood at its annual conference in Liverpool in September was described to me by one Labour Member of Parliament as “sepulchral.” It was hard to disagree.

How has it gone so wrong? Back in July 2024, Starmer led Labour back to power, crushing the ruling Tory party. He seemed untouchable. He may not have been seen as charismatic like Boris Johnson, but many viewed him as dependable and responsible — a model of stability. Last year, as one pollster explained, the public saw him as “boring,” but today the words associated with him are “weak” and “useless.”

Every time Starmer looks for a reset and change of fortune, another calamity hits. Two struck last week

Chris Doyle

Nothing has gone right. The polling situation for Starmer and Labour is dire. One recently showed Labour at just 19 percent, seven points behind the right-wing populist Reform UK. Others are even worse, with one showing the Green Party ahead of Labour and Reform 15 points ahead.

Every time Starmer looks for a reset and change of fortune, another calamity hits. Two struck last week and, as so often has been the case, these were self-inflicted wounds.

First was the phantom leadership challenge that hit the headlines last Wednesday. A briefing from a senior Downing Street source claimed that leadership bids were being organized but that the government was in “full bunker mode” and Starmer would fight any challengers to his leadership. The trouble was that nobody was challenging him — at least not yet. The imagined rivals did not materialize. The coup was nonexistent, making the Labour leader look paranoid. Wes Streeting, the health secretary touted as the prime rival, appeared far stronger, touring the TV studios and blaming the “toxic culture” in Downing Street.

Starmer’s denials that he authorized such a briefing are likely true. He despises such Machiavellian plotting. So, this raises the question: who is running his Downing Street operation? Critics are pointing the finger at a Rasputin-like figure in Downing Street, the prime minister’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney. If so, his time in office may be up.

Can Starmer turn this around? Yes, but the question is whether he has the courage and political nous to do so

Chris Doyle

The second act of political self-destruction was over the forthcoming budget. Labour pledged ahead of last year’s elections that it would not raise income tax. Yet, with the economy struggling, Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepared the ground to do just that. Politically, this would be costly, but the government has to raise revenue somehow.

Yet, in a stunning change, it was last week leaked to the media that the planned income tax rise was being dropped. The indecision was startling. U-turns have become a feature of the Starmer era. This spooked the markets, which were not impressed.

Starmer’s cause is not being helped by his far-from-impressive neighbor in Downing Street. Reeves does not exude confidence and a sure touch. She has arguably been the weakest member of his team, but she is occupying the most significant position, not least at a time of economic malaise.

Can Starmer turn this around? Yes, but the question is whether he has the courage and political nous to do so. In government, he has looked tentative rather than sure-footed at a time when the country craves bold change because people largely see things as broken. This is why the mainstream parties are flailing and insurgent parties are on the rise — namely Reform on the extreme right and the Greens on the left.

Shifting the figures in Downing Street may help. Governing is different from winning elections, yet this administration still feels permanently stuck in campaign mode. McSweeney is a tough, abrasive campaigner, not a strategic chief of staff. The role is far harder than it was 10 years ago.

The government needs a narrative. A valid complaint from Streeting and others is that all these missteps prevent the government from marketing what it is achieving. Who is knitting the story of this government, what it is getting done and, crucially, what it aspires to achieve? The answer is nobody. That has to change.

The prime minister may have to become more domestically focused. Even by his own admission, he has traveled considerably. He has sought trade deals. Time has been spent stiffening the spine of the Trump administration on Ukraine. A reset on European relations has been pretty successful, a far cry from the weekly battles with Brussels overseen by the previous government.

Does Starmer have it in him to be the radical leader many crave? As it is, nobody can really define what Starmerism is or might be. If he shuffles along in the same uninspiring fashion, few would rule out a leadership challenge becoming a reality rather than an illusion.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech