As Middle East conflict rages, India confronts security challenges

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel late last month, just when US-Iran talks were taking place in Geneva. Over the previous days, the US had mobilized a formidable armada in the Gulf, while President Donald Trump was issuing daily threats of assault on Iran if an agreement did not emerge from Geneva that met his full expectations. Given the military preparations and Trump’s maximalist demands on Iran, the likelihood of a war initiated by the Israeli-US coalition was very high.
Modi’s visit was clearly timed to enable the prime minister to affirm India’s affiliation with Israel and backing for it in the coming war, while distancing itself from Iran. New Delhi has neither regretted the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei nor the US attack on the Iranian naval vessel IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka, which killed at least 87 sailors. Three days after Khamenei’s death, the Indian foreign secretary signed the condolence book at the Iranian Embassy in New Delhi, a token gesture given the stature of the assassinated leader.
Modi’s sojourn in Israel was high-profile and yielded substantial results for both sides. The prime minister delivered a resounding address at the Knesset and concluded far-reaching agreements with Israel that will solidify bilateral ties.
At the Knesset, Modi offered Israel his “deepest condolences” for the victims of the Hamas attacks in October 2023, consoled Israel for the “pain of terrorism” it had endured, applauded Israel’s “resolve, courage and achievements,” assured the Knesset that India stood with Israel “firmly with full conviction,” and affirmed that the “shared ideals” of the two countries contribute to “global stability and prosperity.”
Given Israel’s pervasive global isolation after a UN committee described its war on Gaza as “genocide,” Modi’s words resonated powerfully in the Knesset. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was “deeply, deeply moved” and declared that the two countries would build an “iron alliance” against extremism. The grateful assembly conferred its highest award, the Medal of the Knesset, on the prime minister.
The rhetoric was backed up by 16 agreements. Defense and security are at the heart of Israeli-Indian cooperation, aimed at upgrading India’s military capabilities and promoting the indigenization of its defense production. Unconfirmed reports have suggested that Israel could provide India with the “Iron Dome” missile defense technology and even the highly restricted “Iron Beam,” a 100-kilowatt high-energy laser weapon.
This year, India is expected to import Israeli weaponry worth $8.6 billion, covering precision-guided munitions, air-to-surface missiles and ballistic missile systems. The two leaders have also finalized an agreement to upgrade their ties to “special strategic relations” — a level that Israel only currently has with the US and Germany. 

India has opted to be part of the Israel-backed hexagon of regional allies.

Talmiz Ahmad

Despite the military and political uncertainty in the regional scenario, India has clearly opted to back the Israeli-US coalition in the ongoing conflict. This is in response to the security challenges that have emerged for India.
On the eve of Modi’s visit, Netanyahu had spoken of a “Shiite axis” and a “Sunni axis.” The Israeli prime minister then referred to a “hexagon of alliances” consisting of Israel itself, Greece and Cyprus, along with unnamed countries in the Arab world, Africa and Asia that, he asserted, would unite against their “radical” enemies in the region.
Israel’s unnamed partners are Ethiopia and Somaliland in Africa and India in Asia, with others expected to be named later. According to Netanyahu, there is a “strategic convergence” among the countries forming the hexagon in terms of their shared understanding of regional realities and challenges and their long-term interests covering economic, diplomatic and security matters. With Modi’s visit, India has opted to be part of this Israel-backed hexagon of regional allies.
The principal reason for this decision is the emergence of the coalition of Turkiye and Pakistan, which dates back to the Cold War era, and was strengthened during the India-Pakistan conflict in May last year, referred to in India as “Operation Sindoor.” Besides their substantial military and economic ties, both Turkiye and Pakistan are also close — politically, militarily and economically — to China, thus forming a triumvirate that is of serious security concern to India. The three countries are particularly bonded by their shared support for the China-sponsored Belt and Road Initiative, which several commentators in India view as Beijing encroaching into India’s strategic space and even attempting to encircle India in the terrestrial and oceanic domains.
The coming together of this trio has perhaps convinced Indian policymakers that, to safeguard its long-term security interests, the country needs to make a clear strategic choice in favor of Israel.

• Talmiz Ahmad is a former Indian diplomat.