All politics is local

On Sunday, the French voters will cast their votes in the run-off election to decide who will be the president of France. All opinion polls conducted recently suggest the Socialist candidate François Hollande has a seven-point lead. Barring any last minute surprise, Hollande will be the next president.
This time, foreign policy does not interest the public. Whenever the candidates brought up the issue of foreign policy, it was talked about within an economic context. During the campaign, Hollande made it perfectly clear that he would introduce changes in France’s foreign policy with regard to the euro zone to encourage growth. Implicit in his statements is that foreign policy should be designed to serve domestic needs.
Sarkozy is known to the world as a president who is deeply involved in foreign policy. His frequent appearances on the international scene and his initiatives have given him a profile more linked to foreign policy rather than domestic politics.
Hollande is no match to Sarkozy in this particular domain. And yet, both candidates do not condone military action against the Syrian regime. They both back the Annan plan, which has indeed failed to produce the desired outcome. While both would seek to pull out the French forces from Afghanistan, they differ on timing. Obviously, Hollande wants to bring the French troops home faster.
Foreign policy issues are in fact subordinated to the real problems that face the public. Obviously what interest people most is talking about economic and euro problems. Sarkozy played up the fact that he participated in managing the crisis that hit the euro zone. But he soon realized that people were more interested in national and local issues.
The televised debate was the last chance for Sarkozy to sway the public. As the French audience and viewers were glued to their seats during the debate, neither emerges as a winner in the debate. The tone of the debate was set early during the debate. Clash of personality and ambitions dominated the debate. Hollande focused on his plan to create 60,000 teaching jobs over the coming five years. He pledged to end tax exemptions enjoyed by the rich people and to cap petrol prices. Contrary to Hollande, Sarkozy spoke of competitiveness. However, under Sarkozy, the French economy has suffered from serious problems. Just in last January, France was stripped of its triple-A rating according to Standard and Poor’s agency. This rating indicates that France is no longer a place for safe investment.
Although foreign policy issues were kept on the backburner by both candidates, still it is difficult to ignore the impact of inter-European relations on the French economy. Sarkozy has been known for his close cooperation with Germany to lead Europe. He seems in line with Germany’s austerity drive. Hollande, on the other hand is skeptical of Germany’s role in the euro zone. “It’s not for Germany to decide for the rest of Europe,” said François Hollande. “If I am elected president, there will be a change in Europe’s construction. We’re not just any country: We can change the situation,” he added. During the euro crisis, Germany emerged as the key player in driving the austerity plan that only burdens the weaker state. Germany got its way thanks to Sarkozy hesitance to deploy France’s swing power in the EU. Perhaps, Sarkozy went along with Germany under the illusion of Franco-Germany parity.
If Hollande make it on Sunday, he will most likely change course and adopt a firmer position toward Germany. He sets to renegotiate the fiscal pact that was signed by 25 out of the 27 EU members. Although Berlin is not in a mood to compromise on this issue, Hollande will find himself in a better position given the expected support he may get from other European countries. A former US Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill once said, “all politics is local.” This phrase cannot be more striking when we try to make sense of the French presidential elections.