What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?

Analysis What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?
Syrian Kurdish families in Afrin region return to their villages on Dec. 5, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 11 December 2024
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What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?

What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?
  • Jubilant after the fall of Assad, many displaced Syrians are eager to return home, despite destruction and political instability
  • UN refugee chief calls for ‘patience and vigilance’ as governments suspend Syrian asylum claims and consider deportations

LONDON: Although Syria remains in a precarious state just days after the fall of the regime of Bashar Assad, hundreds of displaced Syrians have flocked to border crossings in Lebanon and Turkiye, eager to return to their homeland after more than 13 grueling years of civil war.

At daybreak on Monday, scores of people gathered at the Cilvegozu and Oncupinar border gates in southern Turkiye and the Masnaa crossing in Lebanon, confident for the first time in years that they would not face arrest or conscription when they reached the other side.

On Sunday, in a historic moment for the Middle East, a coalition of armed opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham seized Damascus. Now a refugee himself, Assad fled the country and sought asylum in Russia, marking an inglorious end of his family’s brutal 54-year rule.

Syrians displaced across the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and further afield by the years of fighting and persecution in their home country poured into the streets in celebration, jubilant that the uprising that began in 2011 had finally succeeded in dislodging Assad.




An aerial view shows long vehicle queues have formed on the roads leading to and from Damascus on December 8, 2024. (Getty Images)

Syria remains the world’s largest refugee crisis. Since the outbreak of civil war in 2011 following the regime’s brutal suppression of anti-government protests, the UN says more than 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes.

While the majority sought refuge in other parts of Syria, including areas outside the regime’s control, others fled to neighboring countries — primarily Turkiye and Lebanon, but also Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq. Many more risked the perilous Mediterranean crossing to Europe.

Some 7.2 million Syrians remain internally displaced, where 70 percent of the population is deemed to require humanitarian assistance and where 90 percent live below the poverty line, according to the UN refugee agency, UNHCR.

More than 5 million Syrian refugees live in the five neighboring countries — Turkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt. Turkiye alone hosts around 3.2 million registered with the UNHCR, while Lebanon hosts at least 830,000.

Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a nonpartisan Washington think tank, believes the first Syrians to return are likely “the most vulnerable,” such as those in Lebanon and in Turkiye, who have endured poverty and mounting hostility.

“In general, because of the situation in Lebanon and Turkiye being so bad, I think these people would be the most likely to come back,” Shaar told Arab News. “Many of them would be willing to go back to the rubble of their houses as long as Assad is not there because it just can’t get any worse.”

In Lebanon, anti-Syrian sentiment has grown significantly since the country was plunged into a debilitating economic crisis in 2019. There have even been cases of violence against members of the community and their property.

In April, Syrians were attacked and publicly humiliated in the streets of Byblos after a senior Lebanese Forces official, Pascal Suleiman, was reportedly killed by a Syrian gang during a botched carjacking.




On Monday, scores of people gathered at the Masnaa crossing in Lebanon. (AFP)

Compounding the plight of Syrians, the recent Israeli assault on Lebanon has displaced many families already struggling to survive, forcing them to live on the streets amid reports they have been denied access to municipal shelters.

Even before the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, displaced Syrians were subjected to restrictions on work and access to public services. Some 90 percent of them lived in extreme poverty, according to the UN.

Returning to Syria while Assad remained in power was out of the question for many. Before the regime’s downfall on Sunday, Human Rights Watch warned that Syrians fleeing Lebanon risked repression and persecution upon their return, including “enforced disappearance, torture, and death in detention.”

Indeed, the Syrian Network for Human Rights documented at least nine arrests of returnees prior to Oct. 2, most of which were reportedly linked to “mandatory and reserve” military conscription.




Syrian and Lebanese people celebrate the fall of the Syrian regime on December 8, 2024, in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli. (AFP)

In Turkiye, Syrians have frequently been scapegoated by politicians. In July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused opposition parties of fueling xenophobia and racism. His remarks came a day after anti-Syrian riots broke out in the Kayseri province after a Syrian refugee there was alleged to have sexually assaulted a 7-year-old Syrian girl.

A similar wave of violence erupted in an Ankara neighborhood in 2021 after a Turkish teenager was stabbed to death by a group of young Syrians. Hundreds of people took to the streets, vandalizing Syrian owned businesses.

Erdogan announced on Monday that Turkiye was opening its Yayladagi border gate with Syria to facilitate the safe and voluntary return of refugees, Reuters reported. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said his country would support the return of Syrians to contribute to the reconstruction of the conflict-ravaged country.

“Those with families in Syria are eager to at least pay them a visit,” Marwah Morhly, a Turkiye-based media professional, told Arab News.

“Many are making plans to visit their hometowns with their children, who were born in Turkiye and have never been to Syria or met their relatives in person.”




Children walk in a camp for Syrian refugee in Turkiye set up by Turkish relief agency AFAD in the Islahiye district of Gaziantep on February 15, 2023. (AFP)

However, given the ongoing insecurity and political uncertainty in Syria, and the fact that many Syrians have built lives in Turkiye, the decision to return is not an easy one to make.

Morhly herself is hesitant about visiting, despite longing for her hometown of Damascus. “I can’t take a risk with a young child,” she said, referring to her son. Such a decision would depend on a Syrian-Turkish agreement on the refugee issue, she added.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said “there is a remarkable opportunity” for Syrians “to begin returning home.”

“But with the situation still uncertain, millions of refugees are carefully assessing how safe it is to do so. Some are eager, while others are hesitant,” he added in a statement on Monday.




Syrians in Turkiye celebrate the fall of Assad in Gaziantep, on December 8, 2024. (AFP)

Urging “patience and vigilance,” he expressed hope that refugees would be able to “make informed decisions” based on developments on the ground. Those decisions, he added, would depend on “whether the parties in Syria prioritize law and order.”

He stressed that “a transition that respects the rights, lives, and aspirations of all Syrians — regardless of ethnicity, religion, or political beliefs — is crucial for people to feel safe.”

UNHCR “will monitor developments, engage with refugee communities, and support states in any organized voluntary returns,” he added, pledging to “support Syrians wherever they are.”

Grandi also highlighted that “the needs within Syria remain immense,” as more than 13 years of war and economic sanctions had “shattered infrastructure.”




A photo taken from the Lebanese side of the northern border crossing of Al-Arida shows Syrian fighters assisting with the passage of Syrians back into their country on December 10, 2024. (AFP)

In Europe, home to at least 4.5 million Syrian refugees, several countries — including Austria, France, The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Greece, and the UK — announced they had halted Syrian asylum applications just hours after Assad’s fall.

Germany, which is home to the continent’s largest Syrian diaspora, was one of the first European countries to respond.

Nancy Faeser, Germany’s interior minister, said in a statement on Monday that the current “volatile situation” in Syria is the reason her country’s migration authority has paused asylum decisions, leaving thousands of Syrian applicants in limbo.

Austria has gone a step further, announcing plans to deport Syrian migrants. Interior Minister Gerhard Karner told Austrian media he has “instructed the ministry to prepare an orderly return and deportation program to Syria.

In The Netherlands, the government said it would stop assessing applications for six months. However, many are concerned it may also begin deportations.




Members of the Syrian community wave Syrian flags as celebrate on December 8, 2024 in Berlin, Germany. (AFP)

Discussions about sending refugees back to Syria amid such uncertainty have left many Syrians anxious about their future. This is particularly concerning for those who have built lives and established roots in their host countries.

Anti-refugee discourse has become increasingly common since the height of the European refugee crisis in 2015, when around 5.2 million people from conflict zones across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East arrived on European shores.

For many governments in Europe, the fall of the Assad regime could offer just the opportunity they were waiting for to show they are addressing public concerns about migration by removing thousands of Syrians.

But until Syria’s security situation stabilizes and its political future under its new de facto leadership becomes clearer, forced returns may be premature — or could even break international laws against refoulement should returnees come to harm.

Indeed, with the country still divided among rival factions, extremist groups like Daesh still at large, infrastructure in ruins, an economy crippled by sanctions, and uncertainty over the political agenda of the victorious HTS, Syria is by no means guaranteed peace and security.

 


Fighting in Sudan’s war sets ablaze the country’s largest oil refinery, satellite photos show

Fighting in Sudan’s war sets ablaze the country’s largest oil refinery, satellite photos show
Updated 11 sec ago
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Fighting in Sudan’s war sets ablaze the country’s largest oil refinery, satellite photos show

Fighting in Sudan’s war sets ablaze the country’s largest oil refinery, satellite photos show

DUBAI: Fighting around Sudan ‘s largest oil refinery set the sprawling complex ablaze, satellite data analyzed by The Associated Press on Saturday shows, sending thick, black polluted smoke over the country’s capital.
The attacks around the refinery, owned by Sudan’s government and the state-run China National Petroleum Corp., represent the latest woe in a war between the rebel Rapid Support Force and Sudan’s military, who blamed each other for the blaze.
International mediation attempts and pressure tactics, including a US assessment that the RSF and its proxies are committing genocide, have not halted the fighting.
The Al-Jaili refinery sits some 60 kilometers (40 miles) north of Khartoum, the capital. The refinery has been subject to previous attacks as the RSF has claimed control of the facility since April 2023, as their forces had been guarding it. Local Sudanese media report the RSF also surrounded the refinery with fields of land mines to slow any advance.
But the facility, capable of handling 100,000 barrels of oil a day, remained broadly intact until Thursday.
An attack on Thursday at the oil field set fires across the complex, according to satellite data from NASA satellites that track wildfires worldwide.
Satellite images taken by Planet Labs PBC on Friday for the AP showed vast areas of the refinery ablaze. The images, shot just after 1200 GMT, showed flames shooting up into the sky in several spots. Oil tanks at the facility stood burned, covered in soot.
Thick plumes of black smoke towered over the site, carried south toward Khartoum by the wind. Exposure to that smoke can exacerbate respiratory problems and raise cancer risks.
In a statement released Thursday, the Sudanese military alleged the RSF was responsible for the fire at the refinery.
The RSF “deliberately set fire to the Khartoum refinery in Al-Jaili this morning in a desperate attempt to destroy the infrastructures of this country,” the statement read.
“This hateful behavior reveals the extent of the criminality and decadence of this militia ... (and) increases our determination to pursue it everywhere until we liberate every inch from their filth.”
The RSF for its part alleged Thursday night that Sudanese military aircraft dropped “barrel bombs” on the facility, “completely destroying it.” The RSF has claimed the Sudanese military uses old commercial cargo aircraft to drop barrel bombs, such as one that crashed under mysterious circumstances in October.
Neither the Sudanese military nor the RSF offered evidence to support their dueling allegations.
China, Sudan’s largest trading partner before the war, has not acknowledged the blaze at the refinery. The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
China moved into Sudan’s oil industry after Chevron Corp. left in 1992 amid violence targeting oil workers in another civil war. South Sudan broke away to become its own country in 2011, taking 75 percent of what had been Sudan’s oil reserves with it.
Sudan has been unstable since a popular uprising forced the removal of longtime dictator Omar Al-Bashir in 2019. A short-lived transition to democracy was derailed when army chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF joined forces to lead a military coup in October 2021.
Al-Bashir faces charges at the International Criminal Court over carrying out a genocidal campaign in the early 2000s in the western Darfur region with the Janjaweed, the precursor to the RSF. Rights groups and the UN say the RSF and allied Arab militias are again attacking ethnic African groups in this war.
The RSF and Sudan’s military began fighting each other in April 2023. Their conflict has killed more than 28,000 people, forced millions to flee their homes and left some families eating grass in a desperate attempt to survive as famine sweeps parts of the country.
Other estimates suggest a far higher death toll in the civil war.


UN chief urges release of staff held by Yemen’s Houthi rebels

UN chief urges release of staff held by Yemen’s Houthi rebels
Updated 25 January 2025
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UN chief urges release of staff held by Yemen’s Houthi rebels

UN chief urges release of staff held by Yemen’s Houthi rebels
  • “The United Nations will continue to work through all possible channels to secure the safe and immediate release of those arbitrarily detained,” the secretary-general said

UNITED NATIONS, United States: UN chief Antonio Guterres called Friday for the “immediate and unconditional” release of all humanitarian staff held by Yemen’s Houthis, saying the rebel group had detained seven United Nations workers.
The Iran-backed Houthis have held dozens of workers from the United Nations and other aid groups since the middle of last year, including 13 UN staff since last June.
“Their continued arbitrary detention is unacceptable,” Guterres said in a statement, adding that the “continued targeting of UN personnel and its partners negatively impacts our ability to assist millions of people in need in Yemen.”
“The United Nations will continue to work through all possible channels to secure the safe and immediate release of those arbitrarily detained,” the secretary-general said.
Reeling from a decade of war, Yemen is mired in a humanitarian catastrophe with more than 18 million people needing assistance and protection, according to the United Nations.
The latest detentions of UN staff come after United States President Donald Trump ordered the Houthis placed back on the US list of foreign terrorist organizations.
Re-listing the Houthis will trigger a review of UN agencies and other NGOs working in Yemen that receive US funding, according to the executive order signed on Wednesday.

 


Large drop in number of aid trucks entering Gaza on Friday

Large drop in number of aid trucks entering Gaza on Friday
Updated 25 January 2025
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Large drop in number of aid trucks entering Gaza on Friday

Large drop in number of aid trucks entering Gaza on Friday
  • The influx of aid this week compares with just 2,892 aid trucks entering Gaza for the whole of December, according to data from the UN Palestinian relief agency UNRWA

UNITED NATIONS: More than 4,200 aid trucks have entered the Gaza Strip in the six days since a ceasefire began between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas, the United Nations said, although there was a large drop in the number of loads delivered on Friday.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said 339 aid trucks crossed into Gaza on Friday, citing information from Israeli authorities and the guarantors for the ceasefire agreement — the United States, Egypt and Qatar.
This compares with 630 on Sunday, 915 on Monday, 897 on Tuesday, 808 on Wednesday, and 653 on Thursday.
The truce deal requires at least 600 truckloads of aid to enter Gaza each day of the initial six-week ceasefire, including 50 carrying fuel. Half of those trucks are supposed to go to Gaza’s north, where experts have warned famine is imminent.
When asked why there was a large drop in the number of aid trucks on Friday, OCHA spokesperson Eri Kaneko said the UN and humanitarian partners “have been working as quickly as possible to dispatch and distribute this large volume of assistance” to some 2.1 million people across the devastated enclave.
The influx of aid this week compares with just 2,892 aid trucks entering Gaza for the whole of December, according to data from the UN Palestinian relief agency UNRWA.
Aid is dropped off on the Gaza side of the border, where it is picked up by the UN and distributed. Data from OCHA shows 2,230 aid truckloads — an average of 72 a day — were then picked up in December.
Throughout the 15-month war, the UN has described its humanitarian operation as opportunistic — facing problems with Israel’s military operation, access restrictions by Israel, and more recently looting by armed gangs.
The UN has said that there has been no apparent major law-and-order issues since the ceasefire came into effect.
“We are also scaling up the broader response, including by providing protection assistance, education activities and other essential support,” Kaneko said.
 

 


Gaza aid surge having an impact but challenges remain

Gaza aid surge having an impact but challenges remain
Updated 25 January 2025
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Gaza aid surge having an impact but challenges remain

Gaza aid surge having an impact but challenges remain
  • In the final months before the ceasefire, the few aid convoys that managed to reach central and northern Gaza were routinely looted
  • Over the past week, UN officials have reported "minor incidents of looting"

JERUSALEM: Hundreds of truckloads of aid have entered Gaza since the Israel-Hamas ceasefire began last weekend, but its distribution inside the devastated territory remains an enormous challenge.
The destruction of the infrastructure that previously processed deliveries and the collapse of the structures that used to maintain law and order make the safe delivery of aid to the territory's 2.4 million people a logistical and security nightmare.
In the final months before the ceasefire, the few aid convoys that managed to reach central and northern Gaza were routinely looted, either by desperate civilians or by criminal gangs.
Over the past week, UN officials have reported "minor incidents of looting" but they say they are hopeful that these will cease once the aid surge has worked its way through.
In Rafah, in the far south of Gaza, an AFP cameraman filmed two aid trucks passing down a dirt road lined with bombed out buildings.
At the first sight of the dust cloud kicked up by the convoy, residents began running after it.
Some jumped onto the truck's rear platforms and cut through the packaging to reach the food parcels inside.
UN humanitarian coordinator for the Middle East Muhannad Hadi said: "It's not organised crime. Some kids jump on some trucks trying to take food baskets.
"Hopefully, within a few days, this will all disappear, once the people of Gaza realise that we will have aid enough for everybody."
central Gaza, residents said the aid surge was beginning to have an effect.
"Prices are affordable now," said Hani Abu al-Qambaz, a shopkeeper in Deir el-Balah. For 10 shekels ($2.80), "I can buy a bag of food for my son and I'm happy."
The Gaza spokesperson of the Fatah movement of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas said that while the humanitarian situation remained "alarming", some food items had become available again.
The needs are enormous, though, particularly in the north, and it may take longer for the aid surge to have an impact in all parts of the territory.
In the hunger-stricken makeshift shelters set up in former schools, bombed-out houses and cemeteries, hundreds of thousands lack even plastic sheeting to protect themselves from winter rains and biting winds, aid workers say.
In northern Gaza, where Israel kept up a major operation right up to the eve of the ceasefire, tens of thousands had had no access to deliveries of food or drinking water for weeks before the ceasefire.
With Hamas's leadership largely eliminated by Israel during the war, Gaza also lacks any political authority for aid agencies to work with.
In recent days, Hamas fighters have begun to resurface on Gaza's streets. But the authority of the Islamist group which ruled the territory for nearly two decades has been severely dented, and no alternative administration is waiting in the wings.
That problem is likely to get worse over the coming week, as Israeli legislation targeting the lead UN aid agency in Gaza takes effect.
Despite repeated pleas from the international community for a rethink, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which has been coordinating aid deliveries into Gaza for decades, will be effectively barred from operating from Tuesday.
UNRWA spokesman Jonathan Fowler warned the effect would be "catastrophic" as other UN agencies lacked the staff and experience on the ground to replace it.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned last week that the Israeli legislation risked undermining the fledgling ceasefire.
Brussels-based think tank the International Crisis Group said the Israeli legislation amounted to "robbing Gaza's residents of their most capable aid provider, with no clear alternative".
Israel claims that a dozen UNRWA employees were involved in the October 2023 attack by Hamas gunmen, which started the Gaza war.
A series of probes, including one led by France's former foreign minister Catherine Colonna, found some "neutrality related issues" at UNRWA but stressed Israel had not provided evidence for its chief allegations.


Israel UN envoy formally calls on UNRWA to vacate Jerusalem premises

Israel UN envoy formally calls on UNRWA to vacate Jerusalem premises
Updated 25 January 2025
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Israel UN envoy formally calls on UNRWA to vacate Jerusalem premises

Israel UN envoy formally calls on UNRWA to vacate Jerusalem premises
  • Israel UN envoy formally calls on UNRWA to vacate Jerusalem premises
  • UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini warns against ‘blatant disregard of international humanitarian law’

NEW YORK: Israel’s Permanent Representative to the UN Danny Danon on Friday called on the UN relief agency for Palestine refugees to halt its operations in Jerusalem, and evacuate its premises in the city “no later than Jan. 30,” the day an Israeli ban on the organization is due to take effect.

Legislation blocking UNRWA from operating within Israel was approved overwhelmingly by the Knesset in October. The ban also prevents the country’s authorities from maintaining any contact with the relief agency.

Delivery of aid to Gaza and the West Bank requires close coordination between UNRWA and Israeli authorities. If the legislation is implemented as planned, Israel will no longer issue agency staff with work or entry permits, and coordination with the Israeli military that is essential for ensuring safe passage for aid deliveries will no longer be possible.

Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israel has relentlessly condemned and attacked the aid agency. More than 260 of its staff have been killed, while its schools — used by displaced Palestinians for shelter — have been bombed. A coordinated Israeli media campaign has attempted to discredit the agency by portraying it as a tool of Hamas.

As the date for enforcement of the Israeli ban approaches, Danon told UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that UNRWA’s premises in Jerusalem must be vacated as stipulated by law.

The Israeli envoy said that the legislation came “as a direct response to the acute national security risks posed by the widespread infiltration of UNRWA’s ranks by Hamas and other terrorist organizations, and the agency’s persistent refusal to address the very grave and material concerns raised by Israel, and to remedy this intolerable situation.”

He added: “Months of good-faith engagement with the United Nations, and years of related grievances conveyed to UNRWA, have been met with blatant disregard, compromising its fundamental obligation to impartiality and neutrality beyond repair.”

Most UN member states consider UNRWA, the largest aid agency for Palestinians, to be the irreplaceable backbone of humanitarian operations. However, few levers have been pulled to try to ensure the agency’s existence.

Asked by Arab News about this discrepancy between public statements of support and meaningful action, and whether it means Western countries are undermining the same multilateral values on which they were founded, UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini said: “The same question could be asked about the importance of international humanitarian law and the blatant and constant disregard of that law.

“You can ask the same question about the disrespect for the resolutions of the Security Council and the General Assembly. And you can ask the same question about the International Court of Justice’s ruling that Israel’s presence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is illegal, and the court’s call for its withdrawal.

“And so, it’s obviously frustrating,” Lazzarini added. “What we have witnessed is an extraordinary ‘crisis of impunity,’ to the extent that international humanitarian law is almost becoming irrelevant if no mechanism is put in place to address this impunity.”