What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?

Analysis What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?
Syrian Kurdish families in Afrin region return to their villages on Dec. 5, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 11 December 2024
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What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?

What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?
  • Jubilant after the fall of Assad, many displaced Syrians are eager to return home, despite destruction and political instability
  • UN refugee chief calls for ‘patience and vigilance’ as governments suspend Syrian asylum claims and consider deportations

LONDON: Although Syria remains in a precarious state just days after the fall of the regime of Bashar Assad, hundreds of displaced Syrians have flocked to border crossings in Lebanon and Turkiye, eager to return to their homeland after more than 13 grueling years of civil war.

At daybreak on Monday, scores of people gathered at the Cilvegozu and Oncupinar border gates in southern Turkiye and the Masnaa crossing in Lebanon, confident for the first time in years that they would not face arrest or conscription when they reached the other side.

On Sunday, in a historic moment for the Middle East, a coalition of armed opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham seized Damascus. Now a refugee himself, Assad fled the country and sought asylum in Russia, marking an inglorious end of his family’s brutal 54-year rule.

Syrians displaced across the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and further afield by the years of fighting and persecution in their home country poured into the streets in celebration, jubilant that the uprising that began in 2011 had finally succeeded in dislodging Assad.




An aerial view shows long vehicle queues have formed on the roads leading to and from Damascus on December 8, 2024. (Getty Images)

Syria remains the world’s largest refugee crisis. Since the outbreak of civil war in 2011 following the regime’s brutal suppression of anti-government protests, the UN says more than 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes.

While the majority sought refuge in other parts of Syria, including areas outside the regime’s control, others fled to neighboring countries — primarily Turkiye and Lebanon, but also Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq. Many more risked the perilous Mediterranean crossing to Europe.

Some 7.2 million Syrians remain internally displaced, where 70 percent of the population is deemed to require humanitarian assistance and where 90 percent live below the poverty line, according to the UN refugee agency, UNHCR.

More than 5 million Syrian refugees live in the five neighboring countries — Turkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt. Turkiye alone hosts around 3.2 million registered with the UNHCR, while Lebanon hosts at least 830,000.

Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a nonpartisan Washington think tank, believes the first Syrians to return are likely “the most vulnerable,” such as those in Lebanon and in Turkiye, who have endured poverty and mounting hostility.

“In general, because of the situation in Lebanon and Turkiye being so bad, I think these people would be the most likely to come back,” Shaar told Arab News. “Many of them would be willing to go back to the rubble of their houses as long as Assad is not there because it just can’t get any worse.”

In Lebanon, anti-Syrian sentiment has grown significantly since the country was plunged into a debilitating economic crisis in 2019. There have even been cases of violence against members of the community and their property.

In April, Syrians were attacked and publicly humiliated in the streets of Byblos after a senior Lebanese Forces official, Pascal Suleiman, was reportedly killed by a Syrian gang during a botched carjacking.




On Monday, scores of people gathered at the Masnaa crossing in Lebanon. (AFP)

Compounding the plight of Syrians, the recent Israeli assault on Lebanon has displaced many families already struggling to survive, forcing them to live on the streets amid reports they have been denied access to municipal shelters.

Even before the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, displaced Syrians were subjected to restrictions on work and access to public services. Some 90 percent of them lived in extreme poverty, according to the UN.

Returning to Syria while Assad remained in power was out of the question for many. Before the regime’s downfall on Sunday, Human Rights Watch warned that Syrians fleeing Lebanon risked repression and persecution upon their return, including “enforced disappearance, torture, and death in detention.”

Indeed, the Syrian Network for Human Rights documented at least nine arrests of returnees prior to Oct. 2, most of which were reportedly linked to “mandatory and reserve” military conscription.




Syrian and Lebanese people celebrate the fall of the Syrian regime on December 8, 2024, in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli. (AFP)

In Turkiye, Syrians have frequently been scapegoated by politicians. In July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused opposition parties of fueling xenophobia and racism. His remarks came a day after anti-Syrian riots broke out in the Kayseri province after a Syrian refugee there was alleged to have sexually assaulted a 7-year-old Syrian girl.

A similar wave of violence erupted in an Ankara neighborhood in 2021 after a Turkish teenager was stabbed to death by a group of young Syrians. Hundreds of people took to the streets, vandalizing Syrian owned businesses.

Erdogan announced on Monday that Turkiye was opening its Yayladagi border gate with Syria to facilitate the safe and voluntary return of refugees, Reuters reported. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said his country would support the return of Syrians to contribute to the reconstruction of the conflict-ravaged country.

“Those with families in Syria are eager to at least pay them a visit,” Marwah Morhly, a Turkiye-based media professional, told Arab News.

“Many are making plans to visit their hometowns with their children, who were born in Turkiye and have never been to Syria or met their relatives in person.”




Children walk in a camp for Syrian refugee in Turkiye set up by Turkish relief agency AFAD in the Islahiye district of Gaziantep on February 15, 2023. (AFP)

However, given the ongoing insecurity and political uncertainty in Syria, and the fact that many Syrians have built lives in Turkiye, the decision to return is not an easy one to make.

Morhly herself is hesitant about visiting, despite longing for her hometown of Damascus. “I can’t take a risk with a young child,” she said, referring to her son. Such a decision would depend on a Syrian-Turkish agreement on the refugee issue, she added.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said “there is a remarkable opportunity” for Syrians “to begin returning home.”

“But with the situation still uncertain, millions of refugees are carefully assessing how safe it is to do so. Some are eager, while others are hesitant,” he added in a statement on Monday.




Syrians in Turkiye celebrate the fall of Assad in Gaziantep, on December 8, 2024. (AFP)

Urging “patience and vigilance,” he expressed hope that refugees would be able to “make informed decisions” based on developments on the ground. Those decisions, he added, would depend on “whether the parties in Syria prioritize law and order.”

He stressed that “a transition that respects the rights, lives, and aspirations of all Syrians — regardless of ethnicity, religion, or political beliefs — is crucial for people to feel safe.”

UNHCR “will monitor developments, engage with refugee communities, and support states in any organized voluntary returns,” he added, pledging to “support Syrians wherever they are.”

Grandi also highlighted that “the needs within Syria remain immense,” as more than 13 years of war and economic sanctions had “shattered infrastructure.”




A photo taken from the Lebanese side of the northern border crossing of Al-Arida shows Syrian fighters assisting with the passage of Syrians back into their country on December 10, 2024. (AFP)

In Europe, home to at least 4.5 million Syrian refugees, several countries — including Austria, France, The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Greece, and the UK — announced they had halted Syrian asylum applications just hours after Assad’s fall.

Germany, which is home to the continent’s largest Syrian diaspora, was one of the first European countries to respond.

Nancy Faeser, Germany’s interior minister, said in a statement on Monday that the current “volatile situation” in Syria is the reason her country’s migration authority has paused asylum decisions, leaving thousands of Syrian applicants in limbo.

Austria has gone a step further, announcing plans to deport Syrian migrants. Interior Minister Gerhard Karner told Austrian media he has “instructed the ministry to prepare an orderly return and deportation program to Syria.

In The Netherlands, the government said it would stop assessing applications for six months. However, many are concerned it may also begin deportations.




Members of the Syrian community wave Syrian flags as celebrate on December 8, 2024 in Berlin, Germany. (AFP)

Discussions about sending refugees back to Syria amid such uncertainty have left many Syrians anxious about their future. This is particularly concerning for those who have built lives and established roots in their host countries.

Anti-refugee discourse has become increasingly common since the height of the European refugee crisis in 2015, when around 5.2 million people from conflict zones across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East arrived on European shores.

For many governments in Europe, the fall of the Assad regime could offer just the opportunity they were waiting for to show they are addressing public concerns about migration by removing thousands of Syrians.

But until Syria’s security situation stabilizes and its political future under its new de facto leadership becomes clearer, forced returns may be premature — or could even break international laws against refoulement should returnees come to harm.

Indeed, with the country still divided among rival factions, extremist groups like Daesh still at large, infrastructure in ruins, an economy crippled by sanctions, and uncertainty over the political agenda of the victorious HTS, Syria is by no means guaranteed peace and security.

 


Israel rallies global support to win release of a woman believed kidnapped in Iraq

Israel rallies global support to win release of a woman believed kidnapped in Iraq
Updated 11 sec ago
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Israel rallies global support to win release of a woman believed kidnapped in Iraq

Israel rallies global support to win release of a woman believed kidnapped in Iraq
The official said Thursday that the matter was raised in a meeting of special envoys for hostage affairs in Jerusalem this week
Israel and Iraq do not have diplomatic relations

JERUSALEM: A senior Israeli official says the government is working with allies in a renewed push to win the freedom of an Israeli-Russian researcher who is believed to have been kidnapped in Iraq nearly two years ago.
The official said Thursday that the matter was raised in a meeting of special envoys for hostage affairs in Jerusalem this week.
He said the envoys met the family of Elizabeth Tsurkov and that Israel asked the representatives – from the US, UK, Germany, Austria and Canada – to have their embassies in Baghdad lobby the Iraqi government and search for a way to start negotiations. Israel and Iraq do not have diplomatic relations. He said he hopes other countries will help.
“We are counting on our allies,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing closed-door discussions. “And I hope that other nations will suggest assistance in helping us release Elizabeth. Many nations have embassies and contacts with the Iraqi government.”
Tsurkov, a 38-year-old student at Princeton University, disappeared in Baghdad in March 2023 while doing research for her doctorate. She had entered the country on her Russian passport. The only sign she was alive has been a video broadcast in November 2023 on an Iraqi television station and circulated on pro-Iranian social media purporting to show her.
No group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping. But Israel believes she is being held by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia that it says also has ties to the Iraqi government.
The Israeli official said that after months of covert efforts, Israel believes the “changes in the region” have created an opportunity to work publicly for her release.
During 15 months of war, Israel has struck Iran and its allies, and Iran’s regional influence has diminished. Iraq also appears to have pressured militia groups into halting their aerial attacks against Israel.

Gaza war deaths pass 46,000

Gaza war deaths pass 46,000
Updated 55 min 53 sec ago
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Gaza war deaths pass 46,000

Gaza war deaths pass 46,000
  • The ministry said a total of 46,006 Palestinians have been killed and 109,378 wounded
  • The Israeli military says it has killed over 17,000 militants

GAZA: Gaza’s Health Ministry said Thursday that more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war, with no end in sight to the 15-month conflict.
The ministry said a total of 46,006 Palestinians have been killed and 109,378 wounded. It has said women and children make up more than half the fatalities, but does not say how many of the dead were fighters or civilians.
The Israeli military says it has killed over 17,000 militants, without providing evidence. It blames Hamas for their deaths because it says the militants operate in residential areas.
Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are now packed into sprawling tent camps along the coast with limited access to food and other essentials. Israel has also repeatedly struck what it claims are militants hiding in shelters and hospitals, often killing women and children.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and abducting around 250. A third of the 100 hostages still held in Gaza are believed to be dead.


All Jordanians living in Los Angeles are fine, Foreign Ministry says

All Jordanians living in Los Angeles are fine, Foreign Ministry says
Updated 09 January 2025
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All Jordanians living in Los Angeles are fine, Foreign Ministry says

All Jordanians living in Los Angeles are fine, Foreign Ministry says
  • At least 5 people have been killed by wildfires raging in and around the US city; more than 100,000 forced to flee homes

LONDON: The Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates said on Thursday that all Jordanian nationals living in Los Angeles, California, are “fine” as deadly wildfires continue to rage through neighborhoods in several areas in and around the US city.

The fires have claimed at least five lives, more than 100,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes, and hundreds of buildings have burned down.

The ministry sent its sincere condolences to the victims, the American people and the US government, the Jordan News Agency reported.


Japan grants Sudan about $1 million in food aid

Japan grants Sudan about $1 million in food aid
Updated 09 January 2025
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Japan grants Sudan about $1 million in food aid

Japan grants Sudan about $1 million in food aid
  • The statement underscored the urgency of the situation in Sudan
  • The humanitarian situation has significantly worsened as the fighting areas have expanded

TOKYO: Japan, in cooperation with the World Food Programme (WFP), decided to grant Sudan 150 million yen (nearly $1 million) as ‘food aid’ to improve the situation in that country, the Foreign Ministry in Tokyo stated.
Suzuki Satoshi, Japan’s Ambassador to International Organizations in Rome, and Ms. Rania Dagash-Kamara, Assistant Executive Director of the Partnerships and Innovation Department, World Food Programme, signed and exchanged notes regarding the grant aid in Rome on January 8th.
The statement underscored the urgency of the situation in Sudan, where armed conflict between the national army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted in April 2023.
The humanitarian situation has significantly worsened as the fighting areas have expanded and become protracted.
According to the WFP, several regions in Sudan are at risk of famine, approximately half of the population is facing acute food insecurity, and hunger-related deaths have been recorded.
At the Eighth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 8) held in August 2022, Japan announced its commitment to “responding to the food crisis and supporting sustainable agricultural production.” This cooperation is a concrete step in realizing this commitment.
The Republic of Sudan has an area of approximately 1.88 million square kilometers (about five times the size of Japan), a population of approximately 50.04 million, and a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $880, according to the 2023 World Bank data.


Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun, respected army chief

A billboard celebrating the election of army chief Joseph Aoun, as the Lebanon’s president, is seen in Beirut on January 9, 2025
A billboard celebrating the election of army chief Joseph Aoun, as the Lebanon’s president, is seen in Beirut on January 9, 2025
Updated 09 January 2025
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Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun, respected army chief

A billboard celebrating the election of army chief Joseph Aoun, as the Lebanon’s president, is seen in Beirut on January 9, 2025
  • Aoun has since 2017 headed the army, an institution that serves as a rare source of unity in Lebanon
  • The man of few words was able to count on his good relations across the divided Lebanese political class to see him elected

BEIRUT: Joseph Aoun, Lebanon’s army chief who was elected president on Thursday, is a political neophyte whose position as head of one of the country’s most respected institutions helped end a two-year deadlock.
Widely seen as the preferred pick of army backer the United States, he is perceived as being best placed to maintain a fragile ceasefire and pull the country out of financial collapse.
After being sworn in at parliament, Aoun said “a new phase in Lebanon’s history” was beginning.
Analysts said Aoun, who turns 61 on Friday and is considered a man of “personal integrity,” was the right candidate to finally replace Michel Aoun — no relation — whose term as president ended in October 2022, without a successor until now.
A dozen previous attempts to choose a president failed amid tensions between Hezbollah and its opponents, who have accused the Shiite group of seeking to impose its preferred candidate.
Aoun has since 2017 headed the army, an institution that serves as a rare source of unity in a country riven by sectarian and political divides.
He has navigated it through a blistering financial crisis that has drastically slashed the salaries of its 80,000 soldiers, forcing him to accept international aid.
Since late November, he oversaw the gradual mobilization of the armed forces in south Lebanon after a ceasefire ended more than a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.
Under the truce, the Lebanese army has been deploying progressively alongside UN peacekeepers in the south as Israeli forces withdraw, a process they have to finish by January 26.
Speaking on Thursday, Aoun said the state would have “a monopoly” on arms.
The general with broad shoulders and a shaved head has stepped up talks with visiting foreign dignitaries since becoming army chief.
The man of few words was able to count on his good relations across the divided Lebanese political class to see him elected.
Aoun “has a reputation of personal integrity,” said Karim Bitar, an international relations expert at Beirut’s Saint-Joseph University.
He came to prominence after leading the army in a battle to drive out Daesh from a mountainous area along the Syrian border.
“Within the Lebanese army, he is perceived as someone who is dedicated... who has the national interest at heart, and who has been trying to consolidate this institution, which is the last non-sectarian institution still on its feet in the country,” Bitar told AFP.
Aoun was set to retire in January last year, but has had his mandate extended twice — most recently in November.
Mohanad Hage Ali, from the Carnegie Middle East Center, noted that “being the head of US-backed Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun has ties to the United States.”
“While he maintained relations with everyone, Hezbollah-affiliated media often criticized him” for those US ties, he told AFP.
Washington is the main financial backer of Lebanon’s army, which also receives support from other countries including Qatar.
An international conference in Paris last month raised $200 million to support the armed forces.
The military has been hit hard by Lebanon’s economic crisis, and at one point in 2020 it said it had cut out meat from the meals offered to on-duty soldiers due to rising food prices.
Aoun, who speaks Arabic, English and French, hails from Lebanon’s Christian community and has two children.
By convention, the presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, the premiership is reserved for a Sunni Muslim and the post of parliament speaker goes to a Shiite Muslim.
Aoun is Lebanon’s fifth army commander to become president, and the fourth in a row.
Military chiefs, by convention, are also Maronites.