There is something horrifyingly mesmerize about watching Zimbabwe slip deeper into economic and political chaos. The stewardship of President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party has reduced one of Africa’s potentially strongest economies almost to ruin. Mugabe, as prime minister and then as president, has been in sole charge of this economic disaster. No one else is to blame for the present rampant inflation, massive debt, suspended foreign aid and food shortages.
But Mugabe has consistently failed to appreciate how one economic error compounded another. Forced by donors to abandon the one-party state which he introduced when his ZANU party forced through a merger with its rival ZAPU to form ZANU-PF, he saw opposition forces threatening his power base. His solution was to seek to blame everyone except himself and his ministers for Zimbabwe’s troubles: white farmers had been stealing from the country; white businesses had been cheating blacks, that was why the economy had nose-dived; and political instability was being caused by the actions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by the charismatic Morgan Tsvangirai.
As the lot of ordinary Zimbabweans continued to worsen, Mugabe unleashed thugs who are known as “war veterans” — though most of them were too young to have seen service fighting against the Ian Smith regime 21 years ago. They first launched a campaign of terror and murder against white farmers but last year when it seemed that Mugabe might lose the general elections to the MDC, they also turned their attention to the opposition, killing some 40 political activists. More recently there have been terror campaigns against foreign-owned businesses. This latest act cannot be seen as anything other than foolish. Zimbabwe is already short of foreign investment. Scaring away what little remains is suicidal. Tourism, which had once been a growing source of foreign exchange has also collapsed, with hotel occupancy down to 20 percent. Thousands of Zimbabweans who made their living from foreign visitors are penniless. Meanwhile, Mugabe continues to waste his country’s dwindling wealth by deploying more than 10,000 troops in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, in support of the Kabila presidency.
Having forced the country’s chief justice from office and replaced him with his own man, the president may have imagined that the judicial system was now within his control. This has not proved to be the case. Last week the High Court nullified the election victories of ZANU-PF candidates in two key constituencies last year because of voting irregularities. A further 37 results are now to be challenged. If all 37 are found to have been rigged, ZANU-PF would have only 24 seats in parliament, against the MDC’s 56. That would mean even with the 30 unelected seats, largely held by Mugabe loyalists, the government would no longer have a majority. If the elections were held again, the MDC’s victory would be overwhelming.
Mugabe is fast approaching the point where he must admit defeat, or toss aside any pretense that he is a leader who has the overwhelming support of his people. The moment of truth is almost here.
