When it comes to Chechnya, President Putin’s government is increasingly two-faced and, the way things are going, is unlikely to save either of them.
Face No. 1 is that everything in Chechnya is pretty well under control, bar the odd terrorist outrage such as the weekend suicide bombing of the government headquarters in Grozny in which more than 50 people were slain. This face also insists that the separatist rebels do not enjoy the support of the majority of Chechens and will, in the end, fade away, providing Russia remains sufficiently resolute in their policing of the rebel republic, which is an indissoluble part of Russia.
Face No. 2 is represented by the Russian Parliament’s decision early this month to tighten citizenship laws. Incredibly, prominent in the discussions was the plan to clamp down on Chechens even though, according the Russia’s other face, these people are just as much Russian citizens as anyone else. The Kremlin is also likely to press ahead with a state of emergency in Chechnya, which will give Russian troops even more latitude than they at present enjoy, in combating the rebels.
According to Face No. 1, there is no real problem. Nevertheless, Russian legislators have been told that since October 1999, just under 5,000 Russian servicemen have been killed and 13,000 wounded. By contrast, over 14,000 Chechen fighters are supposed to have been killed. There is, however, much skepticism about these figures, which, many Russian commentators believe, should be significantly higher, especially as they concern the number of Chechen dead.
Now a conflict that, in three years, can consume the lives of at least 19,000 people and injure many thousands of others would seem anything but minor. The fact that the scale of casualties has tailed off recently says less about a scaling down of the conflict, and more about the massive effort that the Russians have made to blanket the rebel country with their troops. Yet, top officials openly admit that, by night, Chechnya returns to the hands of the rebels. Even the capital Grozny becomes a no-go area for Russian troops.
Unfortunately for the Chechens and for the Russians who have been sent to suppress them, this is Putin’s war, a conflict that he re-ignited, certain that a determined push could finally bring the rebels to heel. Putin’s delusion that he can win has been shared by many men before him, both czars and commissars. None has achieved more than a pause in the Chechens writhing to be free.
As long as Putin will not admit his error, he will refuse to countenance any sort of peace talks. Nevertheless, it is clear from local reports that his officials on the ground in Chechnya are in frequent contact with rebel leaders and negotiations to end the conflict could begin quite quickly. The separatist — and elected — head of Chechnya, Aslan Maskhadov, has already demonstrated flexibility and pragmatism and would welcome any sort of talks that might lead to an end to the bloodletting.
Unfortunately, unless Putin has an extraordinary change of mind, Russians and Chechens will continue to slay each other for a long while to come, in a sterile military standoff.
