If things go the way the UN, the EU and the new Turkish government want, the 28-year-old division of Cyprus could be over in a matter of weeks. That may seem incredible after so many failed attempts in the past, but deadlines are fast approaching: the two sides have until Feb. 28 to accept the UN’s peace plan; a referendum endorsing it has to be held throughout the island on March 30; and on April 16 an agreement will be signed paving the way for all of Cyprus to join the EU. If Turkish northern Cyprus fails to accept the UN deal, only the southern Republic of Cyprus will join.
It is the prospect of joining the EU that has given the UN deal its momentum. The realization that membership is there for the taking has clarified Turkish Cypriot minds to a remarkable degree. Either they can be part of an EU state and enjoy growth and prosperity or they can remain in isolation and poverty — which they will if they stay separate. The choice is theirs. Many have already made that choice. The pro-unification demonstration a fortnight ago attracted a quarter of the Turkish Cypriot population; the anti-unification demonstration in response last week was pathetic in comparison. It is hardly surprising. Turkish Cypriots are sick of living in a wreck of an economy where it is a struggle to buy even bare essentials while their Greek neighbors enjoy the good life. Among the younger generation, the desire for change is almost universal. The pro-peace demonstration two weeks ago was swamped by them; only old women were noticeable in the opposing demonstration last week.
The other major factor fueling the momentum is the new Turkish government. It firmly backs the UN plan, again because of the EU. It too wants to join and it knows that unless the Cyprus issue is resolved — and resolved now so that both north and south enter the EU together — its own bid will be seriously complicated. Not only will it be seen in EU eyes as occupying part of an EU state, the Cypriot government will in future have a veto on it being let in.
It would be good to say that the momentum for a settlement is unstoppable and that one of the world’s great intractable problems is on its way to being resolved. That is, however, not quite true. Rauf Denktash, the north’s veteran leader, is as opposed to this deal as he has been to all previous attempts at a settlement. But time is running out for him. He is dismissed as yesterday’s man by the bulk of Turkish Cypriot public opinion. What was once viewed as determination is now seen as stubbornness, his dream of an internationally recognized sovereign state of Turkish Cyprus, with himself as president, as an impossible fantasy that needs to be consigned to history.
He is a wily operator and last week’s condemnation of the UN reunification plan by a leading member of the Turkish military will have given him heart. Even so, when this week he attacked the head of Turkey’s ruling party, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had called on him to be more flexible over the UN plan, there was more than a hint of resignation. If Turkey accepts the plan, he said, it should tell him openly. "Then someone else who would accept this is found and this job is finished."
He seems to know that the writing is on the wall.
