It is no news that Europe is divided over Iraq. But while everyone thought the divide was between the UK and the rest, with Tony Blair playing the lonely role of President Bush’s poodle, it is France and Germany with their forceful opposition to Washington’s Iraqi policy who are now out on a limb.
Yesterday’s joint call by the prime ministers of UK, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for a united front against Saddam Hussein is a deliberate snub to the French and Germans. The statement may not be the full backing for war that President Bush would like, but in calling Saddam Hussein a threat to world security and saying that the UN’s credibility is at stake if it does not ensure he complies in full with its resolution on disarmament, the eight governments have sent a clear signal that they side with Washington.
It will be music to Bush’s ears. That five members of the EU and three soon-to-be members should so publicly distance themselves from France and Germany will be seized upon as an endorsement of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s dismissal of the two last week as being “old Europe”. The fact that eight other EU premiers did not sign the statement, although presumably some if not all must have been asked, will be ignored.
Rumsfeld’s remark infuriated the French and Germans but he is clearly not alone in thinking that they are no longer the controlling force in Europe, that with the EU’s expansion other voices have to be heard. This statement was a blunt warning to Paris and Berlin that they must not assume that between them they can dictate Europe’s policies. Indeed, it was as much about cutting President Jacques Chirac and Chancellor Helmut Schroeder down to size as it was support for the US. Even those who did not sign it are resentful of Franco-German dominance.
But support — strong support — it is. The timing was deliberate too, coming just a day before Prime Minister Blair meets with Bush in as already been dubbed a council of war. One question that will be on many people’s lips is whether this was Blair’s doing. The document has his imprint on it — and he has been in close touch with the Spanish and Italians among others in recent days.
As far as the Americans are concerned, they now have, not one, but lots of allies against Iraq — and they are countries that American public opinion is well acquainted with. That is bound to ease the domestic pressure on the Bush administration to think twice about attacking Iraq. American public opinion is not worried about the need for a UN go-ahead to attack Iraq — the UN is not that highly regarded in the US. Its one reservation, however, is that the US must not go it alone, that the invasion force must be multilateral.
Now the Bush administration can claim that Europe backs him. The fact that France and Germany do not can now be dismissed on the grounds that other Europeans regard them as unrepresentative.
They are going to use this to the full.
