DUBAI, 8 February 2003 — Two Western academics explained the possible scenario in the aftermath of an attack on Iraq at a two-day workshop held here recently. While one of them said Iraq might retaliate by attacking Kuwait and some other countries in the region, another academic said that war could lead to the division of Iraq and create a state of chaos throughout the country.
They were among a group of experts from the Gulf Cooperation Council states, Yemen, Egypt, Iran, the United States, Europe, China and Japan who took part in the workshop on the external factors threatening political stability in the Gulf region.
The workshop, entitled “External factors and political stability in the GCC states” discussed the conditions in Iraq, the US policy in the Gulf, Iran, Yemen, the Indian subcontinent, fundamentalist groups, and oil, and the potential effect of these factors on the political stability in the GCC.
The event was organized by the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.
Dr. Charles Tripp of the Department of Political Studies, School of Oriental & African Studies (SOAS) in London, gave a brief presentation on possible future developments in Iraq and their ramifications on the GCC.
“Whether a war is launched against Iraq or not, the situation is not going to be assuring to the GCC. If the war does not break out, the US military presence in the region and the opposition by some groups in the GCC states and Iran to it, as well as the intensified surveillance operation over the no-fly zones in southern and northern Iraq will keep the region highly tense. But in the event of a war, Iraq might retaliate by attacking Kuwait and some other countries in the region, increase popular sympathy with the Iraqi people and intensify Iranian and Syrian opposition to US presence in Iraq,” he said.
The GCC states might be asked to contribute to the cost of war and rebuilding Iraq while thousands of refugees would flee to the neighboring countries. “This will add new security challenges to these states,” he added.
Dr. Gregory Gause, associate professor at the University of Vermont’s Department of Political Science, said war could lead to the division of Iraq and create chaos throughout the country. “Accordingly, the GCC states must prepare for a different Iraq after the war and the security challenge this will pose for them,” he added.
Gause said war on Iraq was inevitable, and if the US managed to change the regime in Iraq Saudi-US relations would never be the same. “Most of the US forces deployed in the Kingdom are there to carry out operations over the no-fly zone in southern Iraq and if the regime is changed there will be no need for those forces to stay,” he said.
Professor Tim Niblock, director of the Institute of Arabic and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter, UK, said the real reason behind the proposed Iraq war was not the Iraqi military forces but the unprecedented vulnerability, which Washington experienced after the events of Sept. 11.
