WASHINGTON, 13 February 2003 — Tuesday’s audio address by Osama Bin Laden, broadcast by the Arabic satellite television network Al-Jazeera, was an unsettling new element in the volatile American standoff with Iraq.

And the Bush administration lost no time in countering that the Bin Laden tape “was proof” of Iraq’s “ties to terrorism.”

But all experts interviewed by Arab News disagreed with the Bush administration’s assessment of the speech.

Bill Christianson, former CIA national intelligence officer and director of the CIA’s office of regional and political analysis, condemned the idea of a US-led war against Iraq, saying Bin Laden’s statement: “Is exactly what we should have expected. He encouraged all Muslims to fight and die, if necessary, in this larger war that the US wants to wage against Iraq.”

Christianson said the statement “makes it clear that Bin Laden is no friend of Saddam Hussein and the ‘socialists’ who control Iraq today.”

He called Secretary of State Powell’s statement that Bin Laden is ‘in partnership with’ Saddam “a gross distortion.”

“It’s a shame that the US government is so eager to exaggerate the closeness of ties between Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden and distort the facts,” said Christianson.

“I don’t feel this is a reason to attack Iraq; I believe a war against Iraq is totally unjustified,” said the former CIA intelligence officer.

Dr. Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Washington-based CATO Institute, said Bin Laden is using the war against Iraq as a “recruiting poster.”

“There was nothing surprising in the speech. Those of us who oppose the war have warned all along that Osama Bin Laden would seek to exploit a US attack on Iraq, and to gain grater support for Al-Qaeda fight against America.

Carpenter said if the US attacks Iraq, “thousands of young Muslims are going to be receptive to that argument.”

He called Secretary of State Colin Powell’s counter statement “utterly ridiculous.”

“All the tape proved is that Bin Laden is seeking to exploit the situation for his own advantage, but in no way does it prove that Baghdad is assisting Al-Qaeda, which is the real issue,” he said.

Jillian Schwendler, professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, is a specialist in Islamic movements.

“This was typical Osama Bin Laden opportunism. Bin Laden is trying to convince Muslims this is a war against Islam, then he can mobilize them,” said Schwendler. “I don’t think this is a war against Islam as much as a war to promote Judeo-Christianity.”

“If there’s a war on Iraq, it will be about US global power, and the control of resources — and not only oil resources,” she said. “I think it is going to be a war about the US seeking to establish greater direct influence in the politics of this Middle East.” This is “a poor strategy that is designed to backfire, but the US administration sees the post 9/11 era as an historic opportunity to try to reshape the region in a more Western friendly environment.”

She slammed the Bush administration’s claims that the Bin Laden tape was proof of Iraq’s ties to terrorism.

“I read the transcript in Arabic, and I don’t think there is any evidence that shows ongoing formal cooperation,” she added although there are surely Al-Qaeda people in Iraq, “that’s a far cry from saying there’s a formal cooperative agreement.”

Former US Ambassador David Mack, vice president of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said the speech was an effort by Osama Bin Laden to reassert leadership for anti-establishment forces in the region.