Turkey is walking a tightrope. Nothing has challenged the country’s policies and future more than the looming war with Iraq.

The vote by the Turkish Parliament last Saturday defeating the measure to support US troops in return for a $6 billion aid package was shocking to the United States and to the Turkish government. Yet there are a number of issues that deserve examining, both economic and political. Attacked in the press for “holding up the US for aid in return for support”, Turkey has good reason to be cautious regarding a second Gulf war.

Turkish Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel states that the 1991 Gulf War cost his country $100 billion. Although some experts believe this figure is exaggerated, the Turkish economy is just now recovering from a recession that was tied not only to the war but to the embargo that followed. Turkey lost its investments in Iraq, a valuable trading partner, and numerous dollars in tourism.

Turks believe that the United States “short-changed” them in that war and they have no intention of repeating that error. The aid they are demanding from the United States is prudent and fair.

What becomes more complex upon examination are the political aspects. Some 98 percent of the people of Turkey are against a war with Iraq. The question is: Is Turkey in direct violation of Article 5 of the NATO charter? This is a debate that may not be addressed today, but it will have to be at a later date as this country is denying a NATO ally, the United States, the use of its military bases.

To further complicate matters, there is the Turkish fear that a war with Iraq will unleash the fourth largest ethnic group in the Middle East, the Kurds. When Turkey was negotiating with the United States, part of that process was an assurance from the US that they would preserve the integrity of Iraq and not allow a separate Kurdish state to emerge. The Turks were prepared to send their own troops into northern Iraq to ensure the Kurds in that region did not spill over their borders into southern Turkey and begin a process that could encompass the 30 million Kurds who live in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. When the discussion turns to a “major upset in the Middle East”, it is this idea that frightens the Turkish government and gives the world pause.

The Kurds in northern Iraq have stated that they only desire to preserve the freedom they currently have, but at the same time the sale of guns to individuals is booming as they arm themselves, not against the Americans or against the Republican Guard of Saddam Hussein but against the Turks. Whether Turkey chooses to abstain from a war on Iraq or chooses to support the United States, they will have to face the consequences either way.

The US military is already moving toward a contingency plan that does not include Turkey. Once that plan is set in motion, Turkey will have to watch from the sidelines. As for the United States, in the words of Morton Abramowitz, former US ambassador to Turkey, “The US has to balance the problem. They have stood for the unity of Iraq and no Kurdish state, yet they are sympathetic to Kurdish needs.” The search for ways in which the Kurds can get a fair deal in a new Iraq is under way.

Arab News Opinion 8 March 2003