The collapse of the UN-brokered Cyprus peace plan is a disaster — not for the Greek-controlled Republic of Cyprus, but for the northern Turkish-controlled half of the island. The Republic of Cyprus will sign the accession treaty with the EU on April 16, will join in May next year, and will flourish as an EU member. Not the north. The hopes of its people are dashed. It, too, could have joined as part of a Swiss-style federal Cyprus, but Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash refused; the result is that northern Cyprus, isolated and unrecognized by all except Ankara, is condemned to years more of isolation and stagnation.
In walking away from the table, it has handed the whiplash to the Greek Cypriots. Sooner or later, economic paralysis will force the north to swallow its pride and accept a deal so it can come in from the cold and bask in the sunshine of EU growth and development. But in future it will have to do so on Greek Cypriot terms alone.
That is what the Greek Cypriots wanted all along. Denktash has allowed himself to be thoroughly outwitted by them. He was not the only one complaining that the UN deal creating two cantons on the island gave too much to the other side. The new Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos defeated Glafcos Clerides last month using precisely the same argument. Logic, of course, suggests that if both sides moan that the deal gives too much to the other then it is probably fairly balanced. And it was. Both sides were offered a good deal by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan — to the Turks political security and prosperity, to the Greeks the return of much (though not all) of their land. Cunningly, although he won an election opposing it, Papadopoulos suddenly accepted the deal, knowing full well that Denktash was determined to reject it. The Greek leader thus emerges smelling of roses, knowing that when the Turkish Cypriots come to renegotiate, as they must, he can call all the shots.
It is a tragedy for the Turkish Cypriots, more than half of whom have shown in demonstrations that they wanted the UN plan. Denktash has failed them; he is unable to see that the injustices and oppression suffered by the Turkish community in the past would not reoccur in the confederal Cyprus proposed by the UN, let alone one that is part of the EU. Brussels will have the economic power to stop such injustices from happening.
But Turkey is the biggest loser. It too wants to join the EU. The failed deal places a massive block in its path. As far as the EU is concerned, Ankara occupies northern Cyprus. After May 2004, it will regard Turkey as occupying an EU member state. That is unacceptable to Brussels. Turkey will not even be able to negotiate entry while the Cyprus issue remains unresolved. It may even find that any new economic packages with the EU are blocked.
Sometimes it is the little things that shape history. The failure of this deal is one such thing. Denktash has, at one fell swoop, handed not just his own people’s hopes of EU membership over to the Greek Cypriots but Turkey’s as well. The arguments put by some EU members that Turkey is not politically ready or suitable to join will be nothing in comparison. Even if the rest of the Europeans agree that Turkey’s bid can go ahead, Cyprus is now the doorkeeper. The Europeans my propose, but as far as Turkey’s European ambitions go, the Republic of Cyprus will dispose.
