The unfortunate truth about the Iraq crisis is that those who say they are acting on behalf of peace may actually be making war more likely.
As Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal has pointed out, the mixed messages emerging from the United Nations are making it more likely that Iraq will stonewall to the end. The only hope that Saddam and his regime have of staying in power is for the very future of the UN to be brought into serious question.
The calculation in Baghdad has to be that even at this late hour, Washington will be obliged to pull back and let the weapons inspectors get on with their work. Saddam’s henchmen have learned how to spin out the inspection process. As long as the orders to attack are not given, the Iraqi regime still has the opportunity to wriggle away from the sword pointed at its heart.
It did not have to be this way. France, Russia and China were right to want the inspection process to continue. But President Chirac in particular has misplayed his hand. His biggest error was to announce that he would veto any new resolution that made war inevitable. This was megaphone diplomacy, which may have boosted his standing at home but has done absolutely nothing for the cause he claims to represent, the cause of peace. The result is the damaging disarray of the international community, a disarray which threatens the whole intricate network of alliances and understandings upon which the future of a stable political world is based.
The war that has already broken out — in the Security Council — will have consequences every bit as awful and long-lasting as the looming conflict in the Gulf. Every instinct in George W. Bush’s Texan soul is telling him to strike out because might is right, while every fiber in Jacques Chirac’s body is telling him that at last the French have a golden opportunity to teach the arrogant Americans a lesson.
These motives are absurd, and they are going to have tragic consequences. Bush believes that America can go it alone against Iraq. However, wiser heads in the State Department will already be pointing out that the UN could be crucial to Washington’s moves post-Iraq, in its war against international terror. America will not want to find itself standing alone against North Korea, an arguably far more potent threat than Iraq.
There are only two ways to stop war in Iraq and preserve the unity of the international community. The first is for Saddam to roll over and quit, which is unlikely. The second is for the bickering permanent members to stop posturing and start talking.
In this Russia and China must play a key role. Their opposition to a headlong rush to war carries none of the cultural baggage of President Chirac’s self-interested campaign. The Russian administration, more established and experienced than its Chinese counterpart, should play the lead. With UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan beside him, President Putin needs to raise the soft voice of reason, bring the arm-twisting and ballyhoo to an end and get Security Council members back around the table.
It’s not horse-trading that’s needed at this critical moment in world affairs, but common sense. President Putin must remind his fellow leaders that Saddam is easily destroyed, but so too is the delicate fabric of trust and peace that has succeeded the Cold War.
