The ultimate outcome of the assault on Iraq has never been in doubt. What is uncertain is what happens when Saddam Hussein’s regime has been ousted. Mischief always follows in the tracks of battle and it has already made itself known.
Turkey’s military incursion into Northern Iraq is highly alarming. Though the Turkish high command has denied that the move has taken place, the Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul has as good as admitted that the advance has happened. The Turkish ambassador in Washington also appeared to confirm the action when he maintained that his country was motivated by a need to set up a reception area for refugees, apparently to stop them seeking to cross the border into Turkey itself.
The fact of the matter is that there are at present virtually no Kurds seeking to flee to Turkey from their area of northern Iraq, where they have enjoyed safety and virtual autonomy since the last Gulf War under the protection of the US and British no-fly zone. The moment for Turkey to set up reception centers on the Iraqi side of its border would be when there is a clear demand for such facilities.
Ankara’s move is far more sinister. It has to do with the republic’s grudging acceptance in 1926 of a demand by the League of Nations, the failed precursor of the United Nations, that it agree to the border with Iraq stipulated by the Treaty of Lausanne, three years earlier. The Turkish claim to the old Ottoman vilayet of Mosul with its oil riches has never really been abandoned. There have been regular references to the ethnic Turkish population still living there.
During the Iran-Iraq war, the Turkish military is known to have prepared an operational plan to stop Iran from seizing the region if the Iraqi front line in the north were to collapse. It looks as if that plan has been dusted off and made ready.
Ankara’s other concern is that in the new Iraq, the autonomous Kurdish region will acquire international recognition and provide a base for renewed rebellion among Turkey’s own Kurds. Yet that long conflict is supposed to have come to an end. Indeed, the recognition of the ethnic rights of Turkey’s large Kurdish minority has been one of the policies of Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his moderate Islamic government of the Justice and Development Party (AK). There will be as much outrage among Turkish Kurds as there is among those in Iraq, who find Ankara’s soldiers have crossed their doorstep.
This is a major failure of US diplomacy. Washington tried first to buy Turkish acceptance of US troops and the overall US strategy, with a massive economic package. When that was thrown out by Turkish legislators, they bargained until the last minute for overflying rights for US warplanes. The deal stalled because Ankara wanted a free hand in northern Iraq.
The stage is now set for a serious confrontation between two NATO powers. The United States says this time it will honor its promise of protection to all Iraqis who chose to rise up against Saddam. It had better. Turkey cannot be allowed to meddle in Iraq’s future, which is going to be a difficult enough matter as it is.
It looks as if once again Turkey’s powerful generals are dictating the policy of the country’s democratically elected government.
