LONDON, 15 April 2003 — The United States says it does not know if Saddam Hussein, targeted in two airstrikes on Baghdad and hunted by US and British forces, is dead or alive.

Britain believes Saddam and the top officials of his toppled government remain in Iraq and are not being sheltered by neighboring countries, Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon said yesterday.

Henner Fuertig, Iraq specialist at the German Institute for Middle Eastern Studies on Saddam Hussein:

“It’s really the million dollar question. He could be dead, in the rubble of one of the palaces. He could be fleeing to another country. He could be in Tikrit.”

“I doubt that the Syrian government would take him in. There are connections between the two Baath parties, they have a common history of foundation directly after the World War II, but they have fought bitterly over the years. Syria was the closest ally to Iran during the war with Iraq in 1980-88.”

“You also have to say that the Syrians know that they would lead themselves into danger with the Americans. ... I wouldn’t rule out that a few leaders of the former regime try to cross into Syria. We’ve seen it in the past. Saddam Hussein himself went there in 1959 after a failed coup. But there’s a difference between some of them trying and Syria itself offering asylum to the head of state.... There’s no safe place anywhere in the world for Saddam Hussein. He has too much blood on his hands, committed too many crimes.”

“It would be a problem (if Saddam Hussein is not found). There’s an echo of Afghanistan. It seemed as if the success there was dependent on finding Bin Laden. It’s also the case that in Iraq, Saddam Hussein must be presented. It’s particularly so as the other ground for war, the discovery of weapons of mass destruction, does not seem to be going so well. If you can’t show either, it’s not very good.”

Gustav Lindstrom, research fellow at the Paris-based EU Institute for Security:

“I think it is more likely that he is under the ground than above ground, but I’m not really sure exactly where he is. However, there’s part of me that says he’s probably not in Syria. I think his tendency is to plan far out. This man knows that he’s been on the hit list for a long time, he’s very, very careful about his security. I think he has had it planned for a long time about where to go if something like this happened.”

Toby Dodge, Iraq expert at Britain’s Warwick University:

“I’d be amazed if he was there (in Syria). I think it’d be an act of suicidal stupidity if they let him in. They’d take in mid-ranking people but not top level guys because that would give the US the leverage they need either to launch destabilization or to isolate Syria in the international system.

“I think he’s still in Baghdad. If you read carefully between the lines I would have thought the US control maybe 20 percent of urban Baghdad, if that. He could be having a comfortable time in Baghdad at the moment.”