BAGHDAD, 16 February 2005 — Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, a physician who lived in London and is a leading figure in a Shiite party that fought Saddam Hussein, has emerged as the top contender for the prime minister’s job after his main rival dropped out.

Ahmad Chalabi, a former Pentagon favorite, was still in the running, however Al-Jaafari seems all but certain to win the approval of the Shiite political alliance that has provisionally won more than half the seats in the new National Assembly.

Al-Jaafari said that if he is confirmed as prime minister, he would first try to stymie the violence that has crippled the country’s recovery from decades of war and hardship.

“The security situation is at the top, as it is a pressing element,” Al-Jaafari said. He also said he would not push for the US and its allies to withdraw their troops from Iraq any time soon.

“Blood is being spilled and the land is under attack,” he said. “How about if we decided to get these troops out of Iraq?” he said, implying that the situation would be much worse than it is now.

Speaking from his home in the US guarded Green Zone in central Baghdad, he was cautious about claiming the prime minister’s post before the election results are even certified. But he acknowledged that recent deals reached between Iraq’s religious parties pointed toward his victory.

“I hear from here and there, but I can’t tell to what extent it is a consensus,” he said. “I feel like some of our brothers are convinced, but it takes time to reach consensus.”

Al-Jaafari is the leader of the Dawa Party, one of the Shiite parties that formed the United Iraqi Alliance. The alliance’s second main candidate, Adel Abdul Mahdi, withdrew from the contest yesterday to avoid any rancorous debate or division within the alliance before they reached the task of governing the country, a spokesman said.

“He withdrew from the alliance candidacy on condition that all 140 members of the alliance are going to approve it,” said Humam Hamoudi, a spokesman for the alliance. “We have two candidates for the alliance, Ahmad Chalabi and Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, but Al-Jaafari is the most likely to be the alliance candidate.” But others were convinced that Chalabi still had a chance. Ali Faisal, from the Shiite Political Council, an umbrella group for 38 Shiite political groups said Chalabi has been wooing many in the alliance.

He’s promised to cancel contracts the interim government has already signed, form a strong intelligence service, and drop charges against popular radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr, who led two bloody revolts against US forces and is wanted for the murder of a rival cleric, Faisal said.

If the groups couldn’t agree on a candidate within two days, Faisal said, they would have to conduct an internal election.

Current interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s party came in a distant third and any role he would have in the new government was not yet clear.

Alliance representatives traveled to Najaf yesterday to meet with their religious leaders to discuss the choice for premier.

An aide to Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraqi Shiites, said that so far, “official and unofficial delegations arrived in Najaf and left without reaching any agreements.”

They were to return today to continue talks, the aide said on condition of anonymity.

In Sunday’s results, the United Iraqi Alliance scooped 48 percent of the vote for the National Assembly, the Kurdish alliance took 26 percent and Allawi, a secular Shiite, won only 14 percent.

— With input from agencies