ROME, 26 April 2005 — Silvio Berlusconi is back in power as Italy’s prime minister, but the media tycoon has a mountain to climb if he wants to restore his flagging popularity and win a general election slated for spring 2006.
After being forced to resign last week by his own allies demanding a “fresh start” following a rout at recent regional elections, Berlusconi returned to the saddle after just three days with a new Cabinet that looks very much like the last one.
His new administration leaves the balance of power in the center-right coalition broadly intact and the key roles of economy, interior and foreign minister are all unchanged.
The fact so little has altered means the old internal feuding is bound to resurface and commentators from across the political spectrum say the crisis has dented the credibility of both Berlusconi and his coalition.
“We face a year of pain for the center-right. I don’t think they can recover from this,” said Vittorio Feltri, editor of the right-wing daily Libero.
“The economy is weak, there is no money to spend and the four (main) ruling parties are only thinking about their own interests, not those of the coalition.”
Il Foglio newspaper, part-owned by Berlusconi’s wife, also thought the crisis spelt trouble. It said the prime minister should have risked a snap election rather than try to rebuild “a deeply and radically damaged coalition lacking any basic political common ground.” Given Italy’s notoriously slow parliamentary procedures, the government lacks the time to pass major reforms before the 2006 election, even if it could find the cohesion to do so.
Parliament has a long summer recess, a break at Christmas and will then be dissolved up to two months before the vote. “We only have 60-70 days of actual parliamentary activity left; the legislature is practically over,” said Feltri.
The main task awaiting the government is the 2006 budget, to be presented in September amid widespread concerns that Berlusconi will disregard Italy’s creaking public finances and try to spend his way back into popularity.
But even if he did have in mind a giveaway budget, it remains to be seen if he could override Economy Minister Domenico Siniscalco, a respected independent economist, and some coalition partners who continue to preach fiscal discipline.
Furthermore the effects of any budget moves would not be felt until well after the next election and they may not sway an electorate that has grown wary of Berlusconi’s promises.
The billionaire businessman’s grandiose pledges and eternal optimism are seen as no longer in touch with a somber national mood weighed down by months of economic decline.
After coming to power in 2001 promising an economic “miracle,” Berlusconi has presided over four years of weak growth, stagnant industrial output and shrinking exports.
“I think it would have been better for the economy to hold a snap election,” said Deutsche Bank economist Susana Garcia, who expects economic growth of less than one percent this year, well below the euro zone average for the fourth year running.
“It’s hard to see how the new government can turn things around, and it will probably just be seen as a faded version of the first one, with further damage to already weak consumer and business confidence,” she added.
Opinion polls put the government around five points behind the center-left led by former European Commission President Romano Prodi. But a recent poll asking voters who they thought would win the election rather than how they would vote showed only 17 percent expected a center-right victory.
Plenty of seemingly hopeless electoral causes have been turned around by governments, and Berlusconi has the advantage of the formidable media resources at his disposal and an accident prone opposition which has its own divisions.
But 11 years after taking the political stage, Berlusconi’s star seems clearly on the wane and if he is to retain power next year something unforeseen will have to come to his rescue.
