An announcement from the political leader of the Palestinian activist group Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, has raised some serious concerns about the future of the peace process. The disturbing announcement is that Hamas will not renew its cease-fire with Israel which expires at the end of the year. The announcement has raised the specter of a renewed cycle of violence. And such violence could, at the very least, undo the relatively good work done in opening the Rafah crossing that gave the Palestinians a new economic window. Adding to the anxiety was the announcement from the leader of the smaller, yet influential, Palestinian activist group Islamic Jihad that it also would not renew its truce with Israel when it expires at the end of the year.
Both Ramadan Shallah and Meshaal cited the same reason for ending the truce agreed upon in February this year: That Israel had not kept its side of the informal cease-fire which called for, among other things, the release of Palestinian prisoners and a halt to Israeli attacks on Palestinians blamed for suicide bombings.
Both leaders have strong evidence to back their claims.
As for the release of prisoners, the number of Palestinian detainees has in fact increased to 9,000. When it comes to attacks on Palestinians, over the past months, 15 Palestinians — two of them children — have been killed by Israeli troops. Their deaths were perhaps not linked to the five Israelis killed last week in a suicide bombing in Netanya but the children are nonetheless dead.
After the Netanya bombing, Shaul Mofaz, the Israeli defense minister, put back on the Israeli agenda the targeted killings of Palestinian “extremists” and the blowing up of suicide bombers’ houses. Surely both he and Sharon understand that such reprisals can only beget the same old tit-for-tat cycle which is constantly pushing Israelis and Palestinians away from peace. Any progress made toward peace is sooner or later stopped by a violent incident; the act of revenge which inevitably follows buries any good will for a period in which no progress is made, especially for the Palestinians. And the situation simply encourages even more violence and even more reprisals.
Meshaal might have enough clout to allow Hamas to break the truce. But Hamas’ politburo, which Meshaal heads, is more hard-line and ideological than the group’s leadership in Gaza — meaning it is possible that his view will not necessarily be accepted. At least the Palestinian Authority does not condone it, its criticism of Meshaal’s statement as being “irresponsible” and a violation of the multiparty accord forged in Cairo early this year giving hope that the cease-fire might still hold.
President Mahmoud Abbas is calling on all Palestinian activist groups to maintain the cease-fire, no matter how shaky, repeating what all know — attacks on Israelis are counterproductive. Having invited all Palestinian groups to Cairo for talks on extending the cease-fire for another year, the Egyptian government is also doing its part to save 2006 from becoming a year of chaos.
