Every new year seems to offer a clean sheet of paper but in fact it is largely a palimpsest; we will be writing over what happened in the old year and hopefully finding some new space to squeeze in something totally fresh and encouraging.
What almost everyone in the Middle East passionately desires is peace in the region and an end to terror. Considering the complex knot into which the shortsighted Bush administration has tied America and its coalition allies, to say nothing of the Iraqis and the rest of the region, only an optimist would imagine that, a year from now, the political and security situation will have markedly improved.
Yet the darkest hour is always before the dawn. With a new Parliament, and hopefully very soon a new National Unity government, Iraqis can once again take control of their destiny.
Even two months ago there was credible evidence that some of the Sunni insurgents were considering abandoning violence and working within the new political system. The increasing involvement of the Sunnis in the democratic process ought to give added momentum to this. Hard-line Baathists will still hold out but if the cracks in the insurgency widen, their survival will become increasingly precarious. More importantly, a Sunni community that is engaged in Iraq’s new politics will rob the forces of Al-Qaeda of support and concealment. The sooner Iraqis can take control of their security, the sooner the US-led coalition forces can pack up and leave, taking with them the only possible excuse for Al-Qaeda’s continued presence in the country.
The moderate Shiite majority has so far kept the worst excesses of the radicals and their militias in check. They must now ensure the new government works quickly to bring jobs and hope to the mass of poor Shiites from whom the radicals draw strong support. This year ends with tanker drivers intimidated from their work of delivering fuel. Let us hope that 12 months hence, Iraqi law-enforcement officials, working without foreign backup and on behalf of all Iraqis, not just one section of the community, can crush such threats to the peaceful life of ordinary citizens.
The new year may not see the defeat of international terrorism but events such as the Organization of the Islamic Conference summit in the Kingdom in November united the Muslim world as never before in the campaign to end this repugnant perversion of the name of Islam. It is now recognized that the solution lies in the hands of Muslims themselves who must root out the teachers of evil in their communities. It is unrealistic to hope that there will not be more murderous attacks, but gradually Al-Qaeda’s leaders are being tracked down, captured or killed. The year has passed without a word from Osama Bin Laden. Perhaps 2006 will see him finally run to ground and a large part of the cancer of terrorism excised.
There are many dangers ahead but valuable lessons have been learned, perhaps even by President Bush. We can therefore, with caution, all wish each other a very Happy New Year.
