The decision by Iran to resume research at one of its nuclear sites is cause for concern, not because Iran should or should not be allowed to develop its own nuclear industry — both sides have valid arguments — but it because it ratchets up the stakes in the nuclear stand-off. Another full-scale international crisis is the last thing the Middle East needs at the moment.
The US and the EU have both condemned the move to resume research on producing enriched uranium, which can be used for both for peaceful and military uses, and it is quite clear that they, along with the UN and the IAEA, are not going to sit back and do nothing about it. There will be consequences. The EU and the US will make sure of it, the EU in particular; it is driving the issue and on this, unlike Iraq, it is united. The French and Germans are just as determined as the British to get the Iranians to back down. Washington appears to be happy to let them take the lead. But it is not just the Europeans and Americans that Iran will have to contend with. It has also the UN and the IAEA against it, and they are not Washington’s and Brussels’ puppets on this issue. It would be a serious mistake to imagine that.
Four months ago, shortly after talks between the EU and Iran broke down and Iran resumed nuclear conversion at Isfahan, the IAEA demanded it cease all nuclear operations and threatened to refer it to the Security Council if it did not. That threat must now be a lot closer, although it is difficult to see what the UN could do in terms of punitive action. Sanctions do not seem particularly realistic; Russia, which has provided Iran with much of its nuclear technology and is trying to present itself as Iran’s ally, would probably veto any such move. Nonetheless, the atmosphere is certain to become more poisonous as the accusations and counteraccusations fly, and all that is going to do is make the Iranians more bitter and more determined, and their detractors likewise. It is going to be a nasty business.
This is a struggle not about international law but about attitudes and intentions. There is no doubt that as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran, like any other signatory, has the right to pursue nuclear research energy for peaceful purposes. But there is the rub. Iran’s detractors are suspicious about its intentions.
The Russians came up with one possible way out, that they carry out Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Teheran’s rejection of the offer, saying that it would undermine its strategic interests, is somewhat spurious since the nuclear program is already dependent on Russian technology. The rejection has more to do with Iranian pride. Russia may be an ally in the making but there is a long Iranian tradition of suspicion of the northern neighbor. On top of that, one suspects that the more Iran is pressured on this, the more intransigent it is likely to be.
One way out might be an offer from India or Pakistan to enrich the uranium. Iran might look at that more favorably. Whatever, something needs to happen very soon lest this crisis escalates, potentially out of control.
