RAMALLAH, 21 January 2006 — The outcome may be in doubt, but Palestinians agree that Wednesday’s elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) mark a crossroads in their political development.
“These elections can be an important juncture on the road to change,” columnist Talal Oukal noted in the Al-Ayyam daily.
If Palestinians agree the elections are important, they also agree why: The ruling Fatah Party is facing a stiff challenge, in the form of the Islamic Hamas movement, which is contesting the elections for the first time and is expected to do particularly well.
“We want to put an end to the one-party rule and political hegemony and to have pluralism that reflects the different viewpoints in society,” Oukal wrote.
Israel, bloodied by scores of Hamas attacks, is furious that the militant group is participating in the election. Its arguments are however dismissed by the Palestinian leadership, who regard the Israeli demand that Hamas be barred as interference in internal Palestinian affairs.
Palestinians who support Hamas are equally unimpressed by US and European statements that the group’s possible future participation in the Palestinian government could affect aid to the Palestinian Authority, unless the movement lays down its arms and changes its charter to accept the existence of the Jewish state.
For these voters, Hamas represents an alternative to Fatah, a party which has dominated Palestinian politics — in the last elections held in 1996, the movement and its allies won 62 of the 88 seats in the PLC — but which is seen as increasingly corrupt, nepotistic and strife-ridden.
The name under which Hamas is contesting the election — The Movement for Change and Reform — gives an indication if its appeal.
It has acquired a “clean” image which cuts across religious lines — Christian Palestinians have also said they intend voting for it, although for other voters Hamas’ emphasis of Islam remains a powerful magnet.
Hamas scored impressive gains in recent municipal elections, winning control of several large Palestinian cities.
Although it is expected to build on this success, most polls do not show it winning a majority in parliament, and the movement has not yet officially said whether it will join the next government.
But a strong Hamas presence in the PLC will have an effect.
“I think if Hamas is not going to be in the next government, it will certainly be the main opposition force in the PLC and it can influence what kind of government will be formed,” says Basem Barhoum who works at the PLC. The question of what type of government will emerge from the elections is one which is occupying the thoughts of Israel, the US and the European Union.
In particular, they are concerned that a Hamas-dominated PLC will lead to an abandonment of the fragile and troubled peace process.
Palestinian Foreign Minister Nasser al-Kidwa is less troubled. There is a difference, he says, between being a member of the PLC and leading the Palestinian Authority and forming the next government.
“These are two different issues,” he says, adding that he is confident that “the general approach will not change.”
For Hamas to sit in the Palestinian government, it will have to change tack and accept the Israeli-Oslo interim peace accords. As far as Barhoum is concerned, the fact that Hamas is participating in the elections — unlike for example, the equally militant Islamic Jihad — means that it is agreeing to the Oslo process.
And even if Hamas wins the elections, there is no guarantee that President Mahmoud Abbas will ask one of is representatives to form the next government.
Under Palestinian law, the president can call on anyone to form a government, although it is expected he will appoint a prime minister who is able to get his government approved by the legislature.
Which is where a large Hamas presence in parliament — able to veto or approve a government and its decisions — can make a difference.
“Palestinian society is responsible for its choices and its future through these elections,” columnist Oukal said. “We can either go toward positive change, and this is what we hope, or we can go backward.”
