PRISTINA, Serbia-Montenegro, 22 January 2006 — The death of Ibrahim Rugova yesterday could not have come at a worse time for independence-seeking Kosovo Albanians ahead of key talks on the province’s status, observers said.

The leadership of the charismatic Kosovo president was considered crucial for the UN-mediated negotiations which are set to kick off in earnest with direct talks next Wednesday in Vienna.

“Rugova is an icon. He established in Albanian heads the idea of independence, and no one else can have his influence,” says Sabri Hamiti, a deputy in Rugova’s Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) party.

After more than 15 years at the forefront of the ethnic Albanian majority’s push to separate Kosovo from Serbia, Rugova is seen as a unique figure without an obvious successor.

Even before Rugova lost his battle with lung cancer -— he revealed he was ill in September last year -— some Kosovo authorities were worried the death of the head of the negotiating team representing Albanians in the talks could jeopardize their cause.

“We are in crisis and we have to admit that the crisis exists in Kosovo,” said Veton Surroi, the head of the ORA party who is seen as one of the few politicians capable of taking over from Rugova as president.

“We will be in a difficult internal political situation in the coming months,” Surroi said in December, adding that “this has to be managed wisely and with maturity”.

The two most senior international officials in Kosovo — UN mission chief Soren Jessen-Petersen and US representative Philip Goldberg — have also voiced their concerns about Rugova’s absence.

The pair said they had “started talks on finding a consensus personality who can be elected quickly as president due to the importance of this position in the process of the status talks,” a local report said at the start of the year.

The UN mission, or UNMIK, has administered Kosovo since NATO intervention brought an end to a crackdown by Belgrade-controlled forces against separatist Albanian rebels in 1999.

Ethnic Albanians, who outnumber Serbs and other minorities in Kosovo by more than nine to one, are demanding independence from Serbia, although Belgrade insists that Kosovo should remain a part of the former Yugoslav Republic.

The negotiations on Kosovo’s future status began tentatively in November when the United Nations’ newly appointed mediator, former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, visited leaders in the region.

Face-to-face talks between the Kosovo Albanian and Serbian negotiating teams are due to start in the Austrian capital next Wednesday.

“Rugova’s absence will create a vacuum, particularly from a psychological point of view, because a very large part of the voters’ confidence was deposited in his personality,” says analyst Milazim Krasniqi.

“But I don’t believe the talks on Kosovo’s final status will suffer significantly,” Krasniqi says.

“The dynamics and conclusion of the talks depend on the international decision-makers who manage the process.

“Despite the fate of the individual protagonist, the process will go on thanks to the international resoluteness to find Kosovo’s final status,” says Krasniqi.

But local media speculation has been rife in recent months that Rugova’s death will spark a power struggle, and not only within his own party.

“More and more names are being added to the list of those who directly participate in this fight for power. A part of them seems to have started planning possible alliances to take over or to keep a part of the power,” the influential Koha Ditore newspaper said recently.

Many analysts say they believe none of Rugova’s likely successors has enough of the political acumen that he showed on the international stage during his push for independence.

Naser Rugova, a relative of the late president and adviser to Kosovo Prime Minister Bajram Kosumi, recently warned of “plots” by “hyenas” both from within and outside of the LDK over deciding on a replacement.

The analysts say the main contenders for the presidency are Kosumi, ORA’s Surroi, the LDK’s parliamentary speaker Nexhat Daci and former separatist guerrilla chief Hashim Thaci.