The election victory won by Canada’s Conservative Party is a remarkable success story and provides one political lesson above all others: Never write off a political party. That is what the pundits did to the Canadian Conservatives 13 years ago. Back in the 1993 general election, the party that had been in and out of government for over 120 years was all but wiped out; from a majority of 169 MPs in the 1988 election, it won just two. It was finished, people said. Canadians had matured politically and had no time for politics of the right, the pundits said.
They were so very wrong. In this election, the defeated Liberals, along with the other two large parties, the left-wing New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois, tried to paint the Conservatives as reactionary extremists. It did not work — not because the Conservatives’ policies are middle of the road; on the contrary, they are very much on the right. Clearly the Canadian public liked the simple, clear message from the man who will now be prime minister, Stephen Harper — less taxes, a clampdown on crime and political reform.
But even more, they liked his promise to clamp down on corruption. The reason why so many Canadians turned against the Liberals is because they were sick of the corruption and arrogance surrounding the party. After 13 years in power, it had fallen prey to the delusion that it had a right to be in power and that it could do what it wanted. It has paid the price for such arrogance.
But Canada is not assured a stable future or the new prime minister a full term in office. The arithmetic is not on his side. He has won a famous victory but it is not enough. He does not have a majority in Parliament and the lesson from Canadian political history is that minority governments have an average lifespan of no more than a year-and-a-half. Harper will have to rely on the support of parties that have diametrically opposed views to his.
The NDP is Socialist-leaning and opposed to his tax cutting, anti-abortion and anti-gay-marriage policies. The Bloc Quebecois is likely to be just as awkward. It needs the Harper’s government to collapse in chaos; it poses the greatest danger to the separatist movement — because Harper wants to reduce federal power and hand it over to the provinces. That weakens the appeal of separatism.
To depend then on the NDP or the Bloc Quebecois is a guarantee of collapse to come. Harper may want to consider the German option of a grand left-right coalition with the Liberals, but that might stir public anger. Having just thrown out the Liberals over corruption, voters would hardly be happy about allowing them back immediately. But, if he can stick to cutting taxes and crime and be seen to make federalism work, Harper would be in a strong position to call a snap election in about 18 months’ time on the grounds that he needs an absolute majority — and probably win. Memories of Liberal corruption are not going to vanish that quickly unless he squanders his victory. Meantime, that should keep the other parties on their toes.
