On the one hand, at least the violence in Iraq has not dominated the headlines lately. But then again, perhaps tales of the ill-planned occupation of Babylon would not prove as politically damaging as the ongoing ethics investigations which are tainting President Bush’s Republican Party, crippling its congressional leadership, and could lead to electoral disaster come fall.

Since the scandals threaten the Bush administration’s ability to move its agenda, they also could have significant consequences on the international realm — including the Middle East.

The indictments of two top Republicans last fall drew attention to ethics questions. Lewis Libby, chief of staff to Vice President Cheney, stands accused of leaking classified information about Valerie Plame, a covert CIA operative.

Plame’s husband, former Ambassador Joseph Wilson, disputed the White House’s intelligence assessment about the Iraqi WMD program. The orchestrated, illegal unmasking of Plame could result in more indictments, including top Bush strategist Karl Rove. The indictment of Representative Tom DeLay of Texas was perhaps more damaging to Republican fortunes than that of Libby.

As House majority leader, DeLay ruled the House of Representatives with an iron fist, maintaining strict party discipline that enabled the former pest exterminator to push even controversial pieces of legislation through the House.

DeLay not only bullied fellow Republicans in Congress, but pressured lobbyists to support his agenda, contribute to Republican causes, and disassociate from Democrats.

DeLay also worked to undermine the Democratic Party’s fund-raising base by courting key voting blocs, supported partisan gerrymandering, and championed controversial legislation to mobilize the Republican base. DeLay’s agenda also included support for the Israeli right wing. A born-again evangelical Christian, he has been prominent in building an alliance between millennialist Christians and Israel.

This alliance weakens Democrats, who have long relied on Jewish Americans for fund raising. DeLay, a past winner of the Zionist Organization of America’s Defender of Israel Award, repeatedly brought one-sided legislation to the floor of the House of Representatives that endorsed Israeli tactics and condemned Palestinians.

This includes a controversial 2001 resolution that linked America’s war on terrorism with Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians. Last year, the House that DeLay built — the House that endorsed without serious objection key Bush administration plans including Iraq, the Patriot Act, tax cuts, several free trade agreements, and Middle East democracy-building — began to collapse. DeLay was indicted on illegal fund raising and money laundering charges in connection with his grandiose plan to redraw the Texas congressional district lines — which resulted in Republicans gaining five seats in the 2004 election.

He also faces much more serious charges involving Jack Abramoff.

Jack Abramoff, a powerful Republican lobbyist, recently pleaded guilty to a number of charges related to improperly influencing Congress.

Abramoff made a fortune lobbying on behalf of Native American gambling interests, diverting millions into the campaign coffers of DeLay and other top Republicans. He also supported an array of conservative causes, including a group that provided sniper training for Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank.

Abramoff-related casualties are mounting.

DeLay was forced to renounce his position as majority leader, and last week Bob Ney of Ohio was forced to resign as a committee chairman. Some estimate that up to twelve more Republican members of Congress may be implicated in the scandal.

Many more will face backlash from their constituents for receiving campaign donations from Abramoff. For example, Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana, once considered a lock for re-election, now trails potential challengers in large part due to his dealings with Abramoff.

While Republicans wait for the other shoe — or shoes — to drop, they must pick a replacement for DeLay. Roy Blunt of Missouri, the current majority whip, is the front-runner. He is a protégé of DeLay, and like the former majority leader, a self-proclaimed Christian conservative with strong ties to Israel. He helped author the 2003 Syrian Accountability Act, which placed a number of sanctions on Damascus. Blunt’s own questionable ties to the lobbying community have bogged down his bid to replace DeLay, and his victory is not yet assured.

Regardless, it is unlikely the new majority leader will command the power of DeLay.

This will certainly hurt the Bush administration, which relied on DeLay’s iron fist to minimize debate, at least within Republican ranks, over its policies. The White House is already under pressure from fiscal conservatives to balance the budget, and from moderates over Iraq. Meanwhile, social conservatives worry their agenda will be sacrificed to appease discontented factions.

Republican ethical lapses are seriously undercutting President Bush, and have given the Democrats a great opportunity to gain the upper hand.

Bush must broaden his base of support in Congress by offering fig leafs to conservative and pragmatic Democrats. Democrats, meanwhile, need to offer a fresh agenda that resonates with voters.

With the scandals and Bush’s weak standings in the polls, voters are willing to listen to an alternative.

— David Dumke is principal of the MidAmr Group. E-mail: [email protected].