VIENNA, 6 February 2006 — The UN atomic agency’s referral of Iran to the UN Security Council came after a show of East-West unity that surprised Tehran but may not deter it from a nuclear program feared to be weapons-related.

“The key question is whether Iran is going to back down or harden its position,” non-proliferation analyst David Albright told AFP Sunday from his Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security think tank.

French expert Francois Heisbourg said the resolution passed Saturday by the UN watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna was “a great diplomatic success.”

“But it does not change by itself the givens of the situation,” said Heisbourg, who has worked in France’s foreign and defense ministries. Iran says its nuclear program is a peaceful effort to generate electricity but the United States says this hides secret development of atomic weapons.

The IAEA resolution calling on Iran to take measures showing that it does not seek nuclear weapons opens the door to punitive action since the Security Council, unlike the IAEA, has enforcement powers.

Iran immediately defied the resolution despite the fact that it put off any council action until at least March in order to leave time for last-chance diplomacy.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered an end to short-notice IAEA inspections of his country’s nuclear program as of yesterday, and called for “preparations” to kick-start uranium enrichment work, which makes what can be nuclear reactor fuel or atom bomb material.

Heisbourg said: “If the Iranians carry out their threats, the Security Council won’t have a chance. It will be forced to take measures” since Iran will be viewed as hostile.

Three years into a so far inconclusive IAEA investigaton of Iran, the five permanent Security Council members (P-5) — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — and Germany closed ranks over the resolution, which could lead to UN sanctions.

A senior European diplomat told AFP that Iran was taken aback by this show of unity, as it has counted in the past on its allies and trading partners Russia and China to protect it against international crackdowns.

When the five permanent council members had in early January first issued a joint statement warning Iran against resuming uranium enrichment, the Iranian ambassador in Vienna “told me he was totally surprised,” the diplomat said.

“I suppose this also was a shock in Tehran. The shock came from Iran’s miscalculation. They did not believe the international reaction would be so strong,” said the diplomat.

But the diplomat said, “one can not assume that because the Iranians were misguided, that they will fold” and give up their nuclear ambitions.

Heisbourg said however that Iran must now know there is a price to pay.

The Iranians are “in a delicate situation since if they carry out their threats of cutting cooperation with the IAEA, then they are defying the entire international community, and Iran can not come out a winner,” Heisbourg said.

Albright said Iran may be seeking “a major confrontation in which they can hurt the West with oil,” using their role as a major producer of crude to cut supply and force prices higher on the already strained world oil market.

Albright said the key would be for the Security Council to apply pressure gradually, holding off on sanctions, in order to prevent a major crisis.

This seems to be the P-5’s approach.

US ambassador to the IAEA Gregory Schulte said in Vienna Saturday that the goal was to get Iran to “choose a course of cooperation and negotiation over a course of confrontation,” and not to punish Tehran.

Moscow hopes the crisis can be defused without the Security Council imposing sanctions and is sponsoring a compromise proposal for Iran to carry out uranium enrichment in Russia so that the Iranians do not master this technology which is considered a “breakout capacity” for making atomic weapons.

But Iran may reject this also.