Stepping into the presidential shoes of Nelson Mandela was never going to be easy for South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki. Mandela, it seemed, could do no wrong. However, Mbeki quickly ran into trouble when for a while he tried to turn his face against the towering problem of the spread of HIV among South Africans. Nevertheless by the time he stood for his second five-year term in 2004, Mbeki’s reputation had recovered from this extraordinary error of judgment and his initially uncertain start as president.

It was a very different statesman who delivered his state of the nation address Friday at the opening of Parliament. Mbeki has turned out to be an accomplished and decisive leader who, like his predecessor, has not been afraid to make tough decisions.

Just as Mandela fired his former wife over serious impropriety, so too Mbeki last June sacked his deputy and heir apparent, Jacob Zuma, in the wake of serious fraud allegations. Zuma was later also charged with rape. The upheaval caused by Zuma’s fall has highlighted divisions with the ANC. Zuma himself, who has yet to come to trial, has not ruled out continuing in politics and running for the presidency in 2009.

To stop him his opponents have been promoting the idea that Mbeki should stand for a third term. This is not permitted by the constitution but the ANC has the necessary two-thirds parliamentary majority to change it if they wished.

It is to Mbeki’s great credit that he has set his face firmly against such a maneuver. At the weekend he said that by the time his second term ended he would have been at the top of South African politics, first as vice president and then president for 15 years. That was too long anyway, in his view.

Under his leadership, it has remained the ANC’s policy that the constitution agreed at the founding of post-apartheid South Africa should remain unchanged. It seems clear that the president is not about to emulate so many past African leaders who seek to perpetuate their time in office by tearing up the rules.

It may also have crossed the president’s mind that 15 years in power will probably be long enough for the ANC as well. The days of high hopes have long passed. Though its achievements have been very real, the ANC government is now struggling to expand its education, health, welfare and jobs programs. Two waves of black empowerment have not seen the expected redistribution of wealth and the voluntary agricultural land reform has not advanced as quickly as expected.

Mbeki may be hoping that in the next four years a fresh political force will emerge to challenge the increasingly entrenched position of the ANC. Since it seems that his primary concern is for his country rather than his party, such an opinion would not be surprising.

The problem is that probably only a minority of all ANC leaders (now well-used to the perks and trappings of power) would agree with him.