IT has taken him nearly six years to make his first trip to the Indian Subcontinent, but it is clear that President George W. Bush is being made no less welcome for the delay. His three-day visit to India, which began last night, is important for two reasons. New Delhi wants to end its isolation because of its refusal to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The Bush trip may finish the standoff with a formal agreement to open up India’s civilian reactors to international inspection. In return, India would be in line for the transfer of non-military nuclear know-how from America.
Though it is still not absolutely clear if an agreement will be reached by the time Bush moves on to Pakistan, the Indian government knows that the deal actually matters more to the Americans than to Indians. US investors are committing ever-greater amounts of capital to India, both through the booming Bombay Stock Exchange and through foreign direct investment. Meanwhile, US companies are searching to maintain the momentum in their fast-growing Indian markets. If the Indians cannot be persuaded to sign up to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, pressure could come from the US Congress for the imposition of some sort of economic sanctions that might harm the wider interest of US business.
Bush will also be using his visit to urge further progress on the settlement of India’s differences with Pakistan over the future of Kashmir. Here it is in India’s interests to end a confrontation that is now damaging its political-risk rating by brokerage firms abroad. It must be hoped that when the US leader moves on to Islamabad he will take with him further encouragement for President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to keep up progress in the ground-breaking talks.
Bush’s arrival in India was marked by largely protest rallies, largely by Muslim demonstrators. With his approval ratings plunging back home, the president will now have seen at first hand the wider anger at US Middle East policy. His brief morale-boosting stopover in Afghanistan was notable for its steely and optimistic rhetoric. However at virtually the same moment, far more sober, almost pessimistic testimony on the upsurge of Taleban and Al-Qaeda activity in the country was being given to the US Congress by Defense Intelligence Agency chief Lt. Gen. Michael Maples and National Intelligence Director John Negroponte.
George Bush may not yet be a lame-duck president, though, like his vice-president’s unfortunate hunting partner Harry Whittington, he is already peppered with shot. Nine months from now, after the mid-term elections, Bush’s reputation is likely to be seriously damaged and his impact during any important foreign trip such as this, much reduced. By the same token, had he found time to visit India in his first term, the strength of the Indian economy and the extent of economic and financial opportunities that rival and, in some sectors, such as service and IT, surpass those in China, would have been far less clear. Therefore on balance the trip’s timing is fortunate. It must be hoped that the outcome will be equally happy.
