Three years into the war billed as the "liberation" of Iraq, the country teeters on the verge of Lebanonization. Meanwhile, the six-syllable word the invasion was supposed to deliver, "democratization" has offered glimmers of hope but, in its infancy, cannot overcome long-festering sectarian tensions.
It turns out that Washington's neoconservatives were wrong about the dominoes. They expected regional despots to meet the same fate as Saddam. Instead, inadequate postwar planning and a bungled occupation resulted in ordinary Iraqis losing their lives.
An entirely different and devastatingly tragic game of dominoes.
The rationale for the war was to counter a "grave and imminent threat". Of course, that threat never existed. Now, there is no doubt - Iraq is a cauldron of instability that threatens to consume itself, endangers its neighbors, and is a proven training ground for Al-Qaeda.
Last year, shortly before the war's second anniversary, CIA Director Porter Goss told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, "Islamic extremists are exploiting the Iraqi conflict to recruit new anti-US jihadists."
Nothing has changed. In fact, last month's attack on the Shiite Golden Mosque in Samarra has propelled the nation toward all-out civil chaos, if not war. The US responded Thursday with "Operation Swarmer", an air assault outside Samarra targeting insurgent cells and weapons caches. But the actual "swarm" of military forces is only 1,500 men; 3,500 troops took part in last year's Anbar Province campaign.
Like Anbar, "Operation Swarmer" is a joint American-Iraqi exercise; unlike Anbar, now the Bush administration has every reason to showcase Iraqi forces in action, no matter how few or how inexperienced. Why?
US forces are preparing to start coming home this summer.
What a difference a year makes. Last January, Army Lt. Gen. James Lovelace said "the most probable case" was for US troop levels to remain the same through the end of 2006. On Thursday, the head of US Central Command Gen. John Abizaid opined, "I think the downward trend is a trend that, based on what I see right now, is one that will continue."
Why?
In November is the most critical test of President Bush's presidency: The Congressional midterm elections. Though Bush is not on the ballot, his domestic and foreign policy agenda is - and that means his legacy is at stake.
The White House avoids any mention of a specific end date or timetable. Bush's recent upbeat assessment of Iraqi troop preparedness is a euphemism for a gradual drawdown of American forces.
To be certain at least 100,000 troops out of the more than 133,000 currently deployed in Iraq will remain through the elections. But achieving the 100,000 threshold is an important psychological plateau and likely to boost sagging support for the president.
So while the Pentagon plans drawdowns, the White House maintains rhetorical support for the objectives of the war.
On Thursday, in a speech at the National Endowment for Democracy, President Bush said, "Iraqi democracy will succeed - and that success will send forth the news, from Damascus to Teheran - that freedom can be the future of every nation." But it will be Iraqi, not American, blood that secures that future.
Bush is not concerned about the defection of neoconservatives who once backed the war, like William Buckley and Francis Fukuyama. His problem is with millions of Americans who are increasingly disillusioned with his leadership. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll indicates his approval rating is hovering near 37 percent. In 2005 his declining numbers were troubling but not urgent; this year, with the midterm elections hanging in the balance, Bush has no margin for error.
The Dubai Ports World debacle spurred by the Republican revolt in the House of Representatives was a clear indication that Bush's leadership was in jeopardy. In an effort to reassert his authority, the White House issued the National Security Strategy, a rehash of the 2002 document with an added emphasis on Iran. Then Bush went on tour again, promoting the war to shore up flagging American support.
In the end, Bush knows what we all know: The only consolation for voters will be the sight of US troops on US shores.
To secure such a drawdown absent the haunting images of America's withdrawal from Vietnam, Washington is confronted with some very difficult choices. Diplomacy is front and center.
Though Steven Hadley, Bush's national security advisor, may downplay the US-Iran dialogue, war fatigue elevates diplomacy's clout in accomplishing the president's objectives in his second term. It is no accident that one of Bush's most trusted confidantes Condeleezza Rice is secretary of state.
The National Security Strategy maintains the pre-emptive posture that was used to justify the Iraq war, yet also highlights diplomacy as an asset in the ongoing confrontation over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Here, John Bolton's brusque "my way of the highway" may serve the administration well. If the UN Security Council affirms the US and EU's resolution to censure Iran, Bush burnishes his multilateralist credentials while maintaining, courtesy of Bolton's brashness, his tough guy image.
Bush's advisors know that stirring up American angst about Iran is unlikely to win many votes. Even if it were, that might be more of a curse than a sound strategy. Simply put, the White House lacks a credible plan. There remains no unanimity among the administrations advisors, as there was on Iraq. The unraveling war in Iraq, and the need for Bush to extricate himself from it, is limiting viable options and may impact the nuclear negotiations as well.
When Hadley issued his stern warning to Tehran regarding upcoming talks, he was also attempting to reassure the administration's most hawkish supporters at home that dialogue on Iraq (a repugnant idea to most of them) did not signal a detour from Bush's hard-line stance on the nuclear issue.
The upswing in diplomatic initiatives, hurried training of Iraqi forces and push to form a legitimate government in Baghdad has one purpose: To "win" the war in Iraq in time for the November elections.
Laughable, yes. But a savvy public relations team can devise a fig leaf broad enough to cover Bush until December. Undoubtedly, a team is tucked away in some office on Pennsylvania Avenue dreaming up the strategy now. "Mission Accomplished: Again."
