By choosing a Cabinet in which all key posts have gone to its own members, Hamas has formed a government which could mean tougher times ahead for it and the people who voted for it. With Hamas not having succeeded in bringing in moderate parties, it looks likely that its chances for international isolation will only increase. There could be crippling economic sanctions imposed by the EU and the US who are talking of cutting crucial flow of aid funding if a Hamas-led government refuses to lay down its arms and seek peace with Israel. Such an embargo would devastate the poverty-stricken Palestinian territories.
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah Party has no representation in the new government. If it had, it might have taken on responsibilities for dealing with Israel and the West. As such, it appears that Hamas will have to go it alone. It will hardly relish the thought of a one-on-one showdown with a new Israeli government which will be announced on March 28, most likely led by Ehud Olmert, who rejects as artificial any division between a Fatah presidency and a Hamas Parliament. Initially Olmert will give pause for the Hamas government to meet his “threshold conditions” for resuming PA-Israeli contacts: recognition of Israel as a Jewish state; disarmament of all the Palestinian resistance factions; and adherence to all previous PLO-Israeli agreements, including the 1993 Oslo Accords and the 2003 road map for peace. But in the likely failure of Hamas in meeting those conditions, Olmert will also go it alone, taking unilateral decisions on the ground that will surely benefit only Israel.
Hamas would have liked the participation of other parties to deal with its agenda of improving the daily lives of Palestinians and keeping money flowing for salaries, infrastructure, maintenance and economic development. That support from the outside and even from within will be reduced makes such ambitions more difficult to meet. Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader designated to become Palestinian Authority prime minister, has put on a brave face, saying he had no doubt that the new government could shoulder the responsibility for running Palestinian affairs. The truth, however, is that the Palestinian Authority is highly dependent on foreign aid to prop up its economy which has suffered near fatal blows during five years of fighting with Israel. It is to Abbas’ credit that he has followed the policy he used before with Hamas. He has sought to co-opt them instead of forcing them to lay down arms.
The election of Hamas brings some symmetry to the conflict — often a necessary condition for parties to finally engage in a meaningful process of negotiation. Yet it has also produced a government that is, from the outset, being isolated from within and from without which in turn will prevent it from doing its job properly.
Continuing to provide much needed aid to the Palestinian people and diplomatically engaging Hamas will have a more constructive outcome than shunning Hamas and collectively punishing the Palestinian people for their democratic choice.
