There is a depressing familiarity to Somalia’s apparent descent into chaos, which yesterday saw a further wave of civilians flee growing violence in the capital Mogadishu. The parallels with Iraq are far from exact, but certain factors are similar. The first is that the present crisis arises directly as the result of foreign intervention. The second is that that intervention was made on the grounds that the country was a base for international terror. It is now clear that until the US-led invasion, Saddam’s Iraq was no such thing.
Washington’s proxy intervention in Somalia was also made on the assumption that the victorious Islamic Courts movement, simply because it proposed Shariah law, would harbor Al-Qaeda terrorists. The case was never proven because the Islamists were quickly driven from power by the interim government, largely supported by the Ethiopian Army and Air Force. In the 16 years of anarchy, with no functioning central government, parts of Somalia have certainly become havens for some international terrorists. Further, as the rout of the Islamic Courts fighters began, Al-Qaeda elements called for foreign fighters to come and support them. These facts do not themselves prove that the Islamic Courts authorities, which had finally brought peace and order to parts of the country, would have allowed their country to be used by Osama Bin Laden’s followers.
The initial assumption, certainly in Washington, was that the interim coalition government of President Abdullahi Yusuf, backed by nearly all of the warlords, would be able to restore peace and order once it entered the capital. But once again White House thinking proved muddled and ill-informed. The fact that it was the Ethiopians, Somalia’s long-time foe, who brought the Yusuf administration in triumph to Mogadishu immediately undermined its legitimacy. The exercise might still have worked if Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi had stuck to his promise to pull his troops out within a fortnight. That may indeed have been his original intention. But because the Islamic Courts continued to resist and the Somalia government forces, such as they are, showed little ability to take over responsibility for security, Washington clearly insisted the Ethiopians stay.
Most moderate Somalis only accepted the warlord-backed interim government because it seemed the sole way to progress toward longed-for peace and stability. They hoped it spelled the end to the factionalism and warfare that had wrecked and pauperized their country. Now, however, one warlord has broken away to operate alongside Islamic Courts fighters.
As in Iraq, Washington’s response to its initial error is to compound it with more of the same. The Somali president was in Addis Ababa yesterday for talks with Zenawi and US advisers will have been hovering close, urging the two men on. America it seems, not only wants to fight its war on terror to the last Iraqi but to the last Somali as well.
