There were two significant results in the first round of the French presidential election. First, voter turnout was almost 85 percent, the highest in 40 years. The second was the consignment of the 78 year-old National Front candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen to what must surely be the dustbin of political history. Four years ago Le Pen went into the runoff against Jacques Chirac in a result which surprised his supporters and shocked his opponents deeply.
This time the voters have returned to the normal centrist left-right battle. Nicolas Sarkozy will face off socialist leader Segolene Royal in two weeks’ time. Commentators, however, are still trying to work out why voter turnout was so high, since the main message emerging from the campaign was that the electorate were fed up with untrustworthy politicians. This had seemed to bode well for the third main candidate, the relatively fresh political face of Francois Bayrou with his pledge to bridge what he called “prehistoric divisions between left and right”.
In the event, though he came third, Bayrou’s share of the vote was well behind that of his two main rivals. It may be significant that his approach to the struggling French economy was much milder than that of Sarkozy or Royal. He was, for instance, committed to keeping the 35-hour week which economists believe has contributed substantially to high unemployment. Sarkozy wants to abolish it and Royal, conscious of her union backers, most of whom still treasure the shorter working week, promised only to “consolidate” the law. Sarkozy received just over 32 percent of Sunday’s vote, with Royal getting nearly 26 percent. Le Pen supporters will probably switch to Sarkozy and those who voted for Bayrou, regardless of which candidate he chooses to endorse in the coming days, are unlikely to move one way or the other en bloc. Indeed, given the contempt with which the Bayrou campaign treated established politicians, many may well choose to abstain.
The French, nonetheless, are nervous and confused about challenges to their way of life. French influence within Europe has shrunk and with it, the enthusiasm for the juggernaut Brussels vision of ever-closer union. The No vote to the EU Constitution was clear evidence of this disenchantment. But equally, the domestic economy is struggling because the French can no longer afford to treat themselves and their state-owned industries so generously, while they lose international competitiveness. Yet, root-and-branch economic reform, as promised by Sarkozy, may win the intellectual argument with Frenchmen. But emotionally, it smacks of Anglo-Saxon economics, of America and the UK, for whom France has so long maintained a mild — and sometimes a not so mild — contempt.
As a member of the government, Sarkozy has a track record as a tough man. The emollient Royal, unfortunately given to foolish gaffes, does not. On May 6 the French will have to decide if they will eat the whole crepe or just nibble the edges.
