In the wake of the Winograd Committee’s interim report published Monday, the status of Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has weakened dramatically, and the chances of him remaining in office are not promising. The second Lebanon war that took place in July 2006 exposed tactical and strategic Israeli weaknesses. The Winograd report highlighted many failures at the decision-making level in Israel, pointed to the lack of preparedness in the Israeli Army, and tried to expose those responsible for the lack of preparedness. In addition, the report examined the developments that took place within the Israeli government at the time, which resulted in Olmert’s decision to launch the war.
In order not to appear weaker than his predecessor, and in line with Israel’s usual military responses designed for deterrence, and to satisfy an Israeli public eager to retaliate, the Israeli prime minister took the “hasty” decision to launch a war against Lebanon. Having a previous air force general as his chief of staff, a devastating air campaign against Lebanon was launched. With the strong resistance shown by the Lebanese people and government during the war, and the counterattacks Hezbollah waged on northern Israel, culminating in heavy Israeli losses, both physical and psychological, the war, which lasted for thirty four days, ended with a UN resolution that did not alter Israel’s perceived strategic threat coming from the north.
The ruthless air strikes against mostly civilian targets in Lebanon, and the failure of the air campaign, coupled with ever increasing brutal apartheid Israeli policies against the Palestinian people under occupation, have caused further damage to Israel’s image around the globe.
The failure so far of the United States foreign policy in the Middle East, and the incomprehensible US unwillingness to bring about a meaningful peace process leading to a peaceful conclusion to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, will in all likelihood, inflame the situation in our region further. In the circumstances, the Quartet meeting scheduled for the end of this week in Sharm El-Sheikh on the Palestinian question will end up like all other previous meetings, with no relevant, tangible results to speak of.
If anything can change the situation and bring back some semblance of sanity to our region, it will be a change in the United States foreign policies. As George Tenet said in his latest book entitled, “In the Eye of the Storm” the Palestinian-Israeli peace process has to be resuscitated. The US political, diplomatic, and economic strength is enormous... and can be used.”
Israel’s interest lies in ending its occupation of the Palestinian land that began in June 1967, and an open, clear and committed positive response to the Arab Peace Initiative relaunched by the most recent Arab Summit held in Riyadh last March. The United States has the interest and the leverage to make this happen, and Israel at the end of the day, will have no choice but to comply.
As one Israeli writer put it, “If any American president were to give a small cough and say, in a half-whisper, “hmm, I am considering my steps concerning Israel,” Israel ‘s economic situation would immediately turn topsy-turvy. Israel’s international credit line would instantly freeze, the dollar in Israel would soar, and so would the inflation rate. Israel’s balance of payments surplus would become a deficit and foreign investment would flee Israel any times faster than it came. After all, the world knows that without American backing, tiny Israel would quickly revert to its natural proportions.”
A half-whisper from the American president is all what it takes to make Israel’s prime minister comply. Olmert might have a chance to survive, if in his last minutes he decides to rescue peace and himself in the process.
— Walid M. Awad works for the Central Media Commission in Ramallah, Palestine.
