Could it be that US troops will be out of Iraq by the end of the year? Despite continuing Bush administration assurances about “seeing the job through to the end,” there are many signs that suggest the end of the occupation is in sight and that September is likely to be the crunch month.

In September, the US commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus is due to report to Bush on the success of the current military effort against the insurgents; the effort has resulted in an additional 28,000 US forces in Iraq, bringing the number to 142,000. The signs are that Petraeus’ news will not be music to Bush’s ears. US lawmakers, meanwhile, are seeking to divide into two parts the emergency funding sought by the White House for continuing US operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The House has voted to make the second payment conditional on a satisfactory report midsummer on the military situation. Bush has said he will veto this bill as he did the first Democratic effort to cut off funding for Iraq. In a subtle but significant policy shift, however, he has nevertheless authorized his chief of staff to seek negotiations with the Democratic majority, saying “It makes sense to have benchmarks.” An agreed date on which a final look were taken of the failure of America’s occupation of Iraq would be a benchmark. Congress may very well be asked to provide funds until September with an extraordinary reserve to pay for the massive logistics of a pullout by year’s end. In addition, there is the UN mandate under which the occupation forces operate, and it is due for renewal in July. Nuri Al-Maliki’s government will certainly seek a six-month extension but it too is under increasing pressure from Iraqi legislators to fix a withdrawal date. An extended UN mandate would take Bush up to December.

Underlying this timing is a powerful US political dimension. Neither Republican nor Democratic presidential hopefuls really want the now-deeply unpopular war to be a live issue in the November 2008 election. If Americans are still fighting and dying in Iraq on Inauguration Day, the new president is going to have to disengage from the conflict and begin his or her term with the mammoth task of cleaning up the mess that Bush has made.

The best solution for the US political establishment would be to make Bush pay for his own mistakes — quit denying the appalling and bloody truth in Iraq and sacrifice the final shreds of his political credibility by bringing the troops home. This solution also appeals to US politicians because, with few exceptions, notably Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama, they all backed the Iraq invasion. Once the adventure’s failure became apparent, however, they began to distance themselves from the president’s position and their former enthusiastic support for him. Since virtually no US legislator comes out of the Iraq debacle with much credit, blundering Bush must be sacrificed. It will be no more than rough justice for all the Iraqi lives that he himself has sacrificed due to his arrogance and ignorance.