The first direct talks between the Americans and Iranians in 28 years have been held, not in a time of amity but of crisis. When the two countries’ ambassadors to Iraq, Ryan Crocker and Hassan Kazemi Qumi met yesterday for four hours in Baghdad’s Green Zone, the focus was purely on the worsening security situation and what each side could do to stop the barbaric chaos.
Had both parties stuck to rhetoric, nothing would have been achieved. But afterward, there was general agreement the discussion had been “businesslike” and according to the Iraqi government, which chaired the meeting, “positive.” It was unclear if future meetings had been scheduled. The Bush White House will want to ponder the Iranian responses in detail, hopefully with more subtle analysis than they have used to date for their blundering Iraqi policies. The Iranians, for their part, still have to sell the usefulness of the talks to an influential cadre in Tehran who don’t believe they should have taken place in the first place. It is the view of these radicals that doing anything to help get Washington off the hook in Iraq is wrong. Other counsels, however, seem to be currently in the ascendant. It is not seen as being in Iranian interests for Iraq to disintegrate. The Iranians share with Turkey the horror of an independent Kurdish state in the present northern Iraq. They fear it would be a fulcrum for Kurdish separatists within their own borders.
The Americans know of course that there is no single leadership in Iran. The Revolutionary Guards who have been supplying Shiite radicals in Iraq with sophisticated weaponry are a law unto themselves and consider themselves answerable only to the religious establishment led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Nor is it even clear how supportive President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, himself a former Revolutionary Guard, is of the talks with the Americans.
The irony, of course, is that the greatest carnage of both Iraqis and American troops is being caused by Al-Qaeda and their Sunni insurgent consorts. Talking to Tehran will do nothing to stem the movement of weapons to these people, unless the Iranians can persuade their Syrian allies to clamp down on flows of arms and men across their borders. As long as the American occupation forces remain in Iraq, Al-Qaeda will have the excuse to be there too. What must be engaging minds in Iran is how strong Bin Laden’s people will have become by the time the Americans leave. Will even their erstwhile Sunni allies be able to push them out and will Iran find itself having to cope with the destabilizing effects of a bitter civil war in its neighbor?
The harsh truth is that neither Washington nor Tehran has any business intervening in the affairs of a sovereign Iraq. They are pursuing their disagreements and enmities on Iraqi soil and stirring up ever greater anarchy. Both should get out. If, by talking to each other, however hesitantly, the day when they will pull out of Iraqi affairs is advanced, then yesterday’s meeting is good news.
