Yesterday's report from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) that the conflict in Afghanistan is spreading and that life for ordinary people is much worse than a year ago comes as no surprise. The official line from Afghanistan is that NATO-led international and Afghan forces are winning battles against the Taleban and their insurgent allies, killing more and more of them. Yet the incontestable fact is that the insurgency is spreading — and sadly with the upsurge in fighting there has been an upsurge in the number of civilians caught in the firing line; so far this year, more than 2,300 people have been killed in the violence. At last someone is telling it as it is.
Needless to say, although most civilians have died at the hands of the Taleban and their allies in roadside bombs and suicide attacks — their aim being to destabilize the country — it is the behavior of the NATO forces that attracts the most attention and does most harm in the struggle to win over hearts and minds. During the past two months in aerial bombing raids, 2,000 civilians have been displaced, dozens more killed and scores of homes destroyed. NATO forces’ seemingly indiscriminate attitude to Afghans, either unable to distinguish between who is friend and foe or, in the heat of battle, unwilling to do so, is again in the spotlight with yesterday’s news that seven Afghan police had been killed in “friendly” fire by US and Afghan troops. The ICRC report, if not surprising, should nonetheless be a clarion call to action. There are two recruiting sergeants for the Taleban: poverty and the presence of foreign, non-Muslim, troops. Afghans, particularly the Pashtuns, are very conservative, very tribal, very proud and sensitive about their faith, traditions and culture and easily convinced that foreigners, especially non-Muslim foreigners, are there for nefarious reasons. That view can become convincing if those foreigners are seen killing fellow Afghans.
The underlying message in the report — that it is increasingly difficult to carry out humanitarian work outside major cities and that in the south of the country, where the conflict is worst, thousands have fled their homes and more continue to flee — does nothing to stir up optimism about ending poverty. Similarly, the growing boldness of the Taleban and their allies, although disastrous for them in their individual battle, pushes back the day when the NATO-led forces can leave.
Coming on the same day as the deaths of the seven policemen and the day after another NATO soldier was killed (the total this year is now 78), the ICRC report will inevitably reinforce a growing sense of frustration, pessimism and foreboding about Afghanistan. Drowning in civil war, Iraq is enough of a catastrophe. The world can ill afford for Afghanistan to go the same way. But that is the fear. The conclusion from that could easily be that this is a war that cannot be won and that the best thing is to get out as soon as possible — precisely the message the Taleban want to convey.
