One has to wonder if the Arab world is set on a course of self-destruction. The fratricidal violence between Palestinians, between Iraqis, conflict in Sudan, violence in Algeria, Al-Qaeda militants trying to murder their way to power throughout the region and, with the latest assassination of a senior politician, Lebanon back to the brink of the abyss; all bloodily proclaim that suicidal politics have taken root in the minds of too many in the Middle East — minds that see no further than their own agendas. It is reaching the point where it becomes beyond the ability of saner Arab heads or even the international community to deal with it all. The Arab world is staring catastrophe in the face, a catastrophe potentially worse even than 1948 should the flames spread further.
Inevitably, Syria will get the blame for the assassination of Lebanese MP Walid Ido. He was the sixth anti-Syrian politician to be murdered in the past two years, starting with former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, ex-communist leader George Hawi in June the same year, Gebran Tueni, MP, the following December and Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel last November. Syria, of course, protests its innocence in this as in all the other murders. But very few believe it. That is Syria’s greatest problem. Ever since the murder of Hariri, all that Syria’s enemies have to do is kill off an anti-Syrian politician and Damascus inevitably gets the blame.
The question “Cui Bono?” (Who benefits?) cannot be avoided. But in answer to those Arab voices that wallow in victimhood, insisting that Lebanon — and Gaza, Iraq, and Al-Qaeda — is the doing of the Israelis or the CIA or MI6 or someone else, the painful fact is that too many Arabs are willing to participate in the insane dance of death. They can refuse to join in. If they did, there would be no crises. In the case of Lebanon, whether it is Syria, Israel or someone else that is responsible for the assassinations, whether that operator plans chaos in the country or simply do not care what happens there, one thing is certain: Lebanon will slide back into civil war if the killings do not stop.
With Ido’s killing, the anti-Syrian majority in Parliament is down to just three members. If that majority is wiped out by more murders and the government falls as a result, it will unleash an explosion. Those who support the present government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora will not accept it being murdered out of office. Blood will flow. If civil war flames up again, what will Arab moderates be able to do? We are reaching a point where there are just too many fires to put out. There is one answer that could solve Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and so many of the other problems facing the Middle East — a comprehensive, multilayered peace deal between the Arabs and the Israelis. But what chance is there of that? Certainly none before President Bush goes. Another year-and-a-half of stagnation could see much more of the Middle East ablaze. Is that what the world wants?
