There are clear signs that South Africa is running out of patience with neighboring Zimbabwe as that country’s currency goes into free fall and the flow of refugees escaping to South Africa, already estimated at some three million, threatens to grow. These exiles are fleeing not only the virtually impossible task of surviving in a wrecked economy but also the increasing violence with which the administration of President Robert Mugabe is handling popular protests and those who lead it. Two respected Africans have recently spoken out, one in support of Mugabe and one against him. Kenneth Kaunda, the former president of Zambia launched a defense of the Zimbabwean president saying that he should not be demonized and that his critics did not understand the long guerrilla struggle he and his Zanu-PF party had lead against colonial oppression. By contrast this week, a leading Zimbabwean prelate, the Roman Catholic Bishop Pius Ncube has called for foreign powers to intervene to overthrow Mugabe.
Both men are profoundly wrong. Kaunda’s apologist argument is specious. Many former freedom fighters have turned into competent peacetime politicians. Robert Mugabe is however not one of them. In the 27 years since independence he has run the country and through a mix of incompetence and corruption has indeed run it into the ground and had done so even before the outside world began to apply sanctions, in protest at fixed elections and crushing of political opponents. His refusal to acknowledge his failure is worsened by his intolerance of dissent. Bishop Ncube’s call for outside intervention is arguably more dangerous, since many will listen to him too. South Africa could probably send in troops and bring about regime change within hours. But it rightly rejects this option.
It is for the Zimbabweans to solve their crisis. Since peaceful public protest has been ruthlessly suppressed, other methods must be used, including strikes and noncooperation, which may well have the effect of sabotaging the last feeble legs on which the economy totters. Even the mass of Mugabe’s supporters is suffering the effects of his incompetence. It is only the top-level cronies with dollars to spend on the smuggled necessities of life who are surviving the economic melt down. Zanu-PF’s once unquestioning and largely tribal support for the administration will not survive when its members realize their once privileged economic position has collapsed.
Outsiders, particularly South Africa, should only be intervening in two ways. The first is to continue to pressure the Mugabe regime to quit and hold proper elections for a government that can start the massive task of economic recovery. The second is to give whatever humanitarian support and aid is possible, without in any way bolstering the government in Harare. South Africa is clearly feeling the burden of supporting Zimbabweans who have fled to its soil. The rich West can ease that load by helping feed and shelter these unfortunate people. But this must be all. Just as there are no excuses for the economically illiterate Mugabe regime, so there is also no excuse for outside intervention to overthrow it.
