The Russian announcement about pulling out of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and the latest twist to the row between it and the UK over the murder of Alexander Litvinenko — the expulsion of four Russian diplomats from the British capital and expected reprisals from Moscow — have overshadowed another thorny Kremlin policy: its opposition to UN plans for Kosovo’s independence.
That opposition is based on self-interest. Moscow wants to be seen to have clout, both for itself and on behalf of its friends and allies, not that Russia has many in Europe. Serbia is the main exception because of historical and religious links. Moscow feels it has to stand by its little ally that, having lost a genocidal war to keep its grip on Kosovo, is still bitterly opposed to its breaking away. So far the Russians have managed to champion Belgrade’s interests by threatening to veto independence plans proposed by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, charged by the UN to recommend on the territory’s future status. This week, Ahtisaari presented a fourth independence draft to try and meet Russian objections based on the insistence that Kosovo’s future must be negotiated by Belgrade and the authorities in Pristina — in effect allowing Belgrade the veto over what happens. Even before the ink was dry on the latest proposal, the Kremlin again dismissed it. There is clearly no room for compromise. With Serbia implacably opposed to independence, Russia follows suit.
The policy is wrong. The overwhelming majority of Kosovars — who are Albanian and Muslim — are never going to accept a link with Serbia again. They are determined on independence. The Europeans have recognized this inevitability, so has the US. Both support the Ahtisaari plan as the only logical, honest way forward. It is. Moscow’s kow-towing to the Serbs, so similar to Washington’s toward the Israelis, is not only wrong, it is shortsighted. Denying the Kosovars their freedom, trying to force them back into the hands of their oppressors, will not win friends for Moscow, especially not in the Muslim world already alienated over Chechnya. The Russians may take exception to Ahtisaari’s warning that “rather than strengthening its international position, Russia only weakens it”, but he is right.
The danger for the Russians is that if they continue to threaten vetoes, the UN process will be sidestepped and they will be left looking ineffective and inconsequential, their dreams of clout up in smoke. All it will take is for the Kosovars to declare independence, which would then be recognized by the Europeans and Americans, with Arab and Muslim governments following suit. It will be the same as when Germany recognized Croatia declaration on independence in 1991 and the rest of Europe followed its lead. Something along those lines may already be in the works. EU officials are now publicly saying that it will make the decision on Kosovo “if necessary”. That may only be weeks away. The EU will simply quietly tell the Kosovars to make their announcement and that will be that.
For Moscow, it would be a humiliating disaster.
