TRIUMPHANT Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be contemplating a Cabinet reshuffle following the re-election of his Justice and Development (AK) Party in Sunday’s snap election. But the nature of his landslide victory could herald a watershed for Turkish democracy.
Political pundits are indeed having a field day trying to come to terms with what has essentially been the equivalent of an earthquake measuring in excess of 9 on the political Richter scale. Is the result a slap to the military for sending that infamous midnight E-memorandum to Premier Erdogan implicitly threatening action in the crisis resulting from Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul’s nomination as the next president of the republic?
Is it because of the weakness of the Turkish opposition especially the Republican People’s Party (CHP), who disastrously chose to play the fear card and the so-called threat to secularism, instead of concentrating on economic and social issues facing a vibrant Turkey in the 21st century? Or is it that the voters have matured and trust AK Party to handle the economy and Turkey’s accession talks with the European Union more competently?
It is clear that both the military and the opposition have misjudged the voters’ mood and underestimated the brilliant political wiles of Erdogan, who showed signs of this mastery years ago when he was mayor of Istanbul.
Perhaps what the AK Party’s victory has now “legitimized” is the emergence of Muslim democracy in Europe on the same lines as the Christian Democrats and Christian Socialists in Germany. In other words, Turkey remains a secular state infused with universal, humanitarian and moderate values, which are also Islamic. Well, that at least is the ideal to strive for. The nearest example to such a state in the Muslim world is Malaysia, which perhaps has fewer hang-ups about what some women wear on their head or whether some men in public office prefer to sport a beard.
It is telling that the United States was the first to congratulate Erdogan even before the full extent of the landslide victory was confirmed. The US Embassy in Ankara commended “Turkey on its vibrant democracy and commitment to free and open elections. Turkey’s voters have once again demonstrated their confidence in democracy and the rule of law.” Britain too welcomed Erdogan’s victory as one for stability and continuity, and new Foreign Secretary David Miliband warned the EU to “reach out” to the Turkish government over accession talks.
So, in which aspects are these polls a watershed election? For a start, the number of female deputies have more than doubled from 24 in the 2002 Parliament to 50 in the 2007 general election. According to Gülseren Onanç, president of the Women Entrepreneurs Association of Turkey (KAG_DER), of this more than half belong to the ruling AK Party. These deputies, she wrote, are far from token appointees, for some of them have served in the Cabinet.
“The AKP has acted very wisely. It has traditionally positioned women inside the family. However, as a party that has slid to the center and that now targets a much larger crowd, it should change this conservative point of view and develop a more liberal and modern view of women. If it gets over this (conservative point of view) it will also be answering to this criticism (that it is anti-secular),” she added.
Nursuna Memecan, AK Party’s deputy from Istanbul confirmed that the women’s branch of the party is one of its strongest. “The party has a well-educated army of women. It is marvelous that women are better represented in the Parliament. Anywhere they are, they assure that there is more tolerance and common sense,” she said. But she tempered her optimism with caution — noting that the lot of Turkish women is not going to change dramatically over the next year or so just because there are 50 or so female deputies. It will take some time to further improve gender equality and empowerment in Turkey.
This election may also force the military to review their seemingly blatant interference in the democratic process. Here, Erdogan can count on US and EU support, because he has turned out to be pragmatic and moderate leader, which is not that common to find in the Muslim world today.
When Erdogan was banned by the military a few years ago for reciting a political poem, it was Washington that put behind-the-scene pressure on the generals in Ankara to rescind the ban, which allowed him to stand in a by-election and enter Parliament straight to the premiership. Before the 2002 election Erdogan had already put out feelers in Washington, and was determined not to repeat the mistakes of the nationalist pro-Islamist prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan, who had scant regard for realpolitik and preferred to hob nob with the likes of Qaddafi (before his rehabilitation) and Gen. Sani Abacha of Nigeria.
Erdogan cleverly also extricated himself from the wrath of White House for not sending Turkish peacekeeping troops to Iraq, because he put the request to a parliamentary vote, which was duly defeated.
The prime minister has the credibility and the mandate to unite the country and steer Ankara’s path one step nearer to eventual EU membership. He has already achieved more in pushing human rights and other reforms through in one Parliament than his predecessors have managed to achieve in the last four decades or so. There is no reason to assume that this process of reform will be slowed down in this Parliament, especially as he has vowed to forge ahead with a new “civilian constitution” with the highest human rights standards to replace the outmoded constitution installed by the military in the aftermath of the Sept. 12, 1980 coup.
But he must not get bogged down in contentious issues such as his friend’s Abdullah Gul’s nomination to the presidency. If he is serious about consensus politics, then he should nominate a consensus candidate to succeed President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. There is no value in confronting the military again. It is time to move on in this issue, especially now that he is in a position of strength. In any case, he would have to rely on the Independents if he wishes to get the two-thirds parliamentary majority to force through his presidential choice.
The biggest challenge will come in social issues, especially relating to the hijab. Here perhaps he should learn from the Malaysian experience, where wearing or not wearing the hijab is a personal choice and a right. Turkish society in general should also move on and not see such things as simplistic religious encroachments and a threat to secularism. Having said that, it is the duty of the government to curb the excesses of all extremists — religious or otherwise — and not to use AK Party’s resounding victory as a platform to push an ideology.
Erdogan has the potential to become a great prime minister and to put Muslim democracy firmly on the political map of the world.
