THE UN Security Council’s unanimous decision to send a 20,000-strong peacekeeping force to Darfur has been given a cautious welcome by the government in Khartoum. China’s decision to back Tuesday’s tougher than expected resolution — the UN troops will be able to fight if necessary — undoubtedly persuaded the Sudanese to go along with the plan. China is both the country’s main arms supplier and oil customer and a major economic partner.
This mammoth peacekeeping operation commanded by a Nigerian general is going to cost $2 billion in its first year. Advance units could be on the ground as early as October. Within the next 30 days the necessary funds will have to be raised from UN members, no small matter in itself. The whole exercise is indeed fraught with dangers but at least something is finally being done to end the violence and it seems that Khartoum is on board. American and British threats of sanctions if they change their mind are certainly not helpful.
What will concern the Bashir government now is that if the UN troops can bring peace, protect refugees and allow aid convoys to once again flow freely without risk of attack, the Darfur region could be turned into another UN protectorate, not unlike Kosovo. This would serve to encourage rebels to seek independence or autonomy. This would be in nobody’s interest, not least the communities the rebels claim to represent, because it would inflame the local Arab Sudanese and see an escalation of Janjaweed violence.
By working with the UN forces to restore order that its own police and army had failed to achieve, the Sudanese authorities will be able to maintain some level of active control. However even though the security situation, which has deteriorated into little more than chaotic banditry — with internal fighting among rebels and also the Janjaweed — will probably need to be restored by force, this alone will not end the crisis.
The UN in partnership with the Sudanese government must also look to dialogue and negotiations to end suspicion and confrontation. It cannot be too late to address the discrimination toward non-Arab Sudanese that began the original insurrection. Nor should the interests of the local Arabs be neglected. Communities that once lived in some harmony can do so again, but only with careful and prolonged work to convince them that the rule of law and justice has been restored.
What must not happen is for this multisided conflict to escalate with the UN troops simply another participant. That would be a disaster.
Some 200,000 people have died, two million refugees created and neighboring Chad destabilized. This may indeed, as has been said, be one of the UN’s most important operations ever. It has to be convincing in terms of the force it can mobilize to protect all civilians and restore order. But it must also facilitate the talks without which this disaster cannot be ended — and at all times and at all stages, the Sudanese authorities must be thoroughly involved.
