- Behind-the-scene diplomacy finally seemed to have yielded results — paving way for a contention-free OPEC meeting that opted to formalize its current actual as the new output ceiling.
The overall environment, the mood at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna during the ministerial was evidently in sharp contrast to the 'worst ever' June meeting of the producers' club.
As expected for days, OPEC ministers opted to increase the group's official ceiling to 30 million bpd, bringing it nearer to its current output.
According the OPEC oil report, the11 nations under existing production quotas pumped 27.69 million barrels a day in November and once the figure for Iraq is included, the output rises to 30.37 million barrels a day.
The previous target for 11 OPEC member nations bounded by output quota, and excluding Iraq, was 24.845 million.
And despite agreeing to the new limit, the members refrained from setting individual quotas for each member nation.
"We have an agreement to maintain the market in balance and we're going to adjust the level of production of each country to open space for Libyan production," Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said after the meeting.
Ramirez, however, also hinted that the effort to accommodate Libya's return to the market would be borne mainly by those countries which had boosted supply above previously agreed levels to make up for the shortfall earlier in the year.
"The countries that overproduced have to reduce to make space for Libya," he said.
Gulf OPEC members appeared respectful of the position.
"Obviously, we are catering for Libya," said Qatari Oil Minister Mohammed Al-Sada as he left the meeting.
UAE Oil Minister Mohammed bin Dhaen Al-Hamli said OPEC was ready to make space for Libya, but he also clarified that there would be "no cutback" in the short term.
Signals emanating from OPEC capitals, even prior to the talks, were definitely positive.
If on one hand, the members were producing close to 30 million bpd — higher than the output ceiling — others, the so-called hawks, had already indicated they were ready to follow the OPEC Secretariat's advice on such issues.
And the dice was thus loaded when a day prior to the meeting, the secretariat emphasized that OPEC will need to produce 30.1 million barrels a day next year to balance world supply and demand.
Interestingly at the meeting, the OPEC ministers reportedly also pledged to reduce production voluntarily if required.
"Member countries would, if necessary, take steps (including voluntary downward adjustments of output) to ensure market balance and reasonable price levels," the OPEC underlined in a statement at the end of the meeting.
And the overall cordial tone of the meeting was set by none other the Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi — the OPEC president until the end of the year.
Everyone seemingly realized that OPEC must present a unified face before the world, otherwise the consequences could be disastrous for everyone.
"We are faced with the prospect of a world economy which could swing either way in the coming months," Qasemi said in his opening address.
"It could enter a welcome period of sustainable economic recovery or return to a new downturn or even recession."
The thing to note in his remarks was the non-aggressive posture.
It portrayed a logical, rather than whimsical, analysis to the trends in the industry.
And the OPEC decision was welcomed by the International Energy Agency too.
"We welcome OPEC's expressed commitment to making ample supplies available to the market. This is particularly important given the fragile state of the world economy," IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement.
"We (also) welcome OPEC's statement that it will be flexible looking ahead to ensure that market requirements are met," she said.
Van der Hoeven also underlined that both the IEA and OPEC had forecast in their most recent market reports that the call on OPEC in 2012 would be around 30 million bpd.
The inclusion of Iraq in the ceiling beats Baghdad's own timetable of 2014 for returning to the quota system. Iraq, crippled by years of war and Western sanctions, has brought pumping back up to 2.7 million bpd and is targeting a rise to 4.5 million bpd within three years.
Indeed this cordiality within the OPEC — for a change at least — was not without some background work.
Good sense seemed to have prevailed — at least for the time being — if not longer — within the OPEC ranks.
Moves came amid reports that Saudi Arabia was being asked to fill in and ensure oil market stability, in case the west moves ahead with the proposed embargo on Iranian oil.
Officials in the US, France, Britain and other countries have been lobbying the Saudis in recent weeks to meet the requirements of buyers of Iranian oil, the reports underlined.
A Western official was quoted as saying that the Saudis have become "the great hope" for enabling the West to avoid an oil price spike while pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear development program.
Veteran oil strategist, Guy Caruso, the head of the EIA during Bush era and now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank in Washington, believes that Saudi Arabia had enough reserves to avoid a disruption in supply to Iran's European and Asian customers.
He, however, very rightly cautioned that oil prices could rise because of "psychological factors."
If the Saudis pump enough to satisfy Iran's customers, the world oil production system "may be operating at 98 percent of capacity, and the markets do get spooked when you're operating that close to the margin," Caruso said.
The reported understanding between Riyadh and Tehran also carried significant impact on oil markets. And this was executed in a deft manner in slick diplomatic moves.



