A revanchist Iran is the greatest menace to the Gulf and the wider Middle East. It is not simply the nuclear threat that it poses to the region. Nor is it simply its increasingly blatant meddling in the affairs of other states, be they Yemen, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria or Lebanon. The greatest threat at this crucial moment in the 5+1 talks on a nuclear deal, is Tehran’s sheer duplicity.
Consider these words: “For years, some have refused to acknowledge that neither military muscle nor economic coercion can push people into giving up their dignity. Unimaginable blood and treasure have been wasted to disprove this unmistakable reality.” Wise words indeed. Yet they come from Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.
In every country in whose affairs it has been interfering, Iran has been spending unimaginable blood and treasure. The clever part of this aggressive policy is that the leaders in Tehran have contrived to spend other people’s blood in defense of Tehran’s interests. Thus duped Houthis have been dying by the score in Yemen to advance Iranian ambitions.
But there can be no doubting that the Iranians have been providing treasure from their own much depleted revenues. Weapons, ammunition, training and cash have been lavished on anyone prepared to dance to Tehran’s siren tunes.
There is a big question here, which the Obama White House does not seem to have asked itself. If Iran can behave so belligerently when it is staggering under economic sanctions, what will it be like when those sanctions are lifted?
Obama may be comparing Iran with Cuba. The rapprochement with the still nominally Communist island off the Florida coast has been greeted with huge relief by both Americans and Cubans. Now, as Secretary of State John Kerry enters what his people are saying, is the final push for an Iranian nuclear deal, Americans and probably many moderate Iranians, are holding their breath for a similar outburst of relief.
They need not bother. If a deal is indeed cut, it will not be worth the paper it is written on. The regime in Tehran has demonstrated, time and again, it is not to be trusted. From one point of view, it is remarkable that Washington ever believed that it could.
The Iranians are in breach of their international commitments to have their nuclear facilities inspected. The sanctions are a result of that breach. There is nothing to negotiate. If the regime honors its promises, the sanctions end. If it refuses, the sanctions continue.
What has the diplomatic dance of the last 22 months really been about? Deadlines have been set and missed so frequently, they have lost any meaning. The very tortuous nature of the negotiations ought to have waved the biggest of red flags in Kerry’s face. Time and again, it seemed to Washington that the deal was almost there. Time and again, it has been snatched away.
It is high time Obama tried looking through the other end of the telescope. The only reason the talks are happening is that Iran is bleeding to death. Run by incompetent and corrupt placemen, large areas of the economy are in a state of collapse. Welfare handouts are being cut back. Prices are rising. The black market flourishing. The top members of the elite want for nothing, of course. But the ordinary man in the street is lacking more and more. Despite state repression, there is a new surge of anger among the poor. This is what the regime fears most. Popular fury could spill over into a new revolution, which will kick the ayatollahs and their henchmen out of politics.
After years of humiliation and taunting, Washington has put together a salvo of crippling economic body punches. Tehran is on the ropes. Now is not the time to step back and shake hands. Now is not the time to believe anything that this slippery regime promises.
Foreign Minister Zarif said airily this week that there were just a few technical details to be ironed out. But the real sticking point has been the pace at which sanctions are removed. If Washington is insisting it wants to see results before a single restriction is lifted, then it is absolutely right. However, the tragedy is that the deal does not also embrace Tehran’s extensive regional interference. An opportunity to reel in a rampant rogue state will have been lost. Instead, the minute sanctions go, Tehran would be financially as well as politically empowered to carry on with its aggression toward its neighbors.
Iran’s meddling in region should not be overlooked
