Kingdom needs oil industry think tank

Kingdom needs oil industry think tank
Updated 23 March 2013

Kingdom needs oil industry think tank

Kingdom needs oil industry think tank

Does anyone remember the words, “we play it by ear?” These were the words of Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the most famous and most influential oil minister in the world from 1962 till 1986. These crucial words were not the words that were circulating in the oil industry. He said these words loud and clear at a symposium about oil industry and production capacity.
The symposium was attended by the top brains in world economy, oil businesses and high-profile political figures. We play it by ear is not something you would say about the most important commodity in the world. Wars can be started because of this commodity. If my memory serves me right, I remember reading about the shock in the audience who were not amused and expected a better analysis from the oil minister of the largest oil-producing country. And I remember reading about the presence of Prince Charles of England among the audience who gave a speech after Sheikh Yamani, which provided relief to the audience after what they had just heard from the former Saudi oil minister.
I have tried to gather as much as information about this symposium as possible, using whatever means I have. In the 1980s, even the word Internet had not made it to the dictionary.
And after I read about the news of the symposium, I realized two things that are very badly needed for our oil industry in Saudi Arabia. The first thing was that we needed a think tank that deals with the oil and gas industry. The second thing was that Sheikh Yamani was famous and known because he was the Saudi oil minister, not because he was Sheikh Ahmed Yamani. In other words, when you are the Saudi oil minister, then you are in the news and you are a celebrity, even if you just show up in a conference or a symposium.
I have heard many speeches and analyses from Sheikh Yamani and I remember his analysis in 1986 when he suggested that the oil prices should increase by $ 1 a year. If his suggestion was followed, then the price of oil now would be about $ 45 a barrel. I am not sure why did he ignore the two most important words in economics — supply and demand?
Being a patriot, I gave the former Saudi oil minister the benefit of the doubt. I understand that people holding official posts normally would follow a general and careful outline. But Sheikh Yamani left his post and he became an oil analyst when he opened a consulting firm outside Saudi Arabia. So, at that time he was an independent consultant. But after the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, the former Saudi oil minister declared on international TV networks that the American invasion of Iraq will improve the oil capacity production in Iraq and the price of oil will fall below $ 10 a barrel. Well, later on, the price of oil increased to reach a historic $ 150 a barrel. Again, what happened to the two most important words in oil production and exploration — security and stability?
To this day, Iraq is neither secure nor stable. So, the question now is: Why Saudi Arabia that is the most important oil producing country in the world doesn’t have an oil industry think tank? Or do we have any?
A few years back, in a television interview Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the deputy minister of petroleum and mineral resources, said that many Saudis lack the knowledge about the oil industry. Even the educated people don’t have a basic knowledge of the most important commodity in the Kingdom. And there is a great need for a think tank.
The relief came in 2008 when (KAPSARC) was established in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, as an independent non-profit institution that would focus on research, policy and technology of the oil industry in the Kingdom. When the research center was established, I saw it as an oil and gas think tank, but it was known that it was established under the umbrella of Saudi Aramco and staffed by former and present Saudi Aramco employees in addition to names from the Saudi Ministry of Petroleum and Minerals who are members of the board of trustees. So, wouldn’t this be like giving a student a test and asking him to grade himself. And to this day, I still haven’t read an analysis produced by this center or even heard any oil and gas report being attributed to this center.
Saudi Arabia needs a genuine independent research center with no ties to any official organization in the Kingdom. And in later years, this research center could be the information center of the world in the oil and gas sector. All the petroleum intelligence reports should come out from a Saudi think tank. And most importantly, the research center must be staffed by capable people to study the impact of oil industry on Saudis, politically, socially or economically.
Oil and gas industry in Saudi Arabia is the main source of income for the Kingdom, and therefore it is imperative to produce and export them according to the Saudi needs. Saudi oil and gas think tanks should be capable to match the oil revenues which run into billions of dollars with the progress and development of the infrastructure in the Kingdom because at this stage we are seeing millions of barrels a day being used to generate electricity and desalinate sea water for the growing populations and it is important to educate people about its value to the future generations.
Saudis pay the lowest at gas stations. Norway has huge oil reserves, but they have one of the world’s highest prices at the gas stations. To this day, we didn’t see serious studies about the importance of oil and gas technologies’ transfer. Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest electricity producing countries in the world and our think tanks should have been the leading authority in electricity consumption analysis. We have the largest water desalination plants in the world, but I never came across a serious study about the long-term solutions or cheaper way to desalinate the salt water. We need think tanks that think, not think tanks that play it by ear.


Celebrated Turkish actor risks jail for Erdogan ‘insult’

Celebrated Turkish actor risks jail for Erdogan ‘insult’
Updated 24 min 34 sec ago

Celebrated Turkish actor risks jail for Erdogan ‘insult’

Celebrated Turkish actor risks jail for Erdogan ‘insult’
  • He is in danger of becoming the latest victim in the Turkish leader’s years-long battle with what he dismissively calls “so-called artists.”

ISTANBUL: Mujdat Gezen’s half-century career as an acclaimed Turkish writer and actor has included awards, a stint as a UN goodwill ambassador and a taste of prison after a 1980 putsch.
Now aged 77, the wry-witted comedian and poet with an easy smile and a bad back risks returning to jail on charges of insulting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
He is in danger of becoming the latest victim in the Turkish leader’s years-long battle with what he dismissively calls “so-called artists.”
“I am even banned from appearing in crossword puzzles,” Gezen quipped.
Gezen landed in court with fellow comedian Metin Akpinar, 79, over comments the pair made during a television show they starred in on opposition Halk TV in 2018.
In the broadcast, Gezen told Erdogan to “know your place.”
“Look Recep Tayyip Erdogan, you cannot test our patriotism. Know your place,” Gezen said on air.
His parter Akpinar went one step further, saying that “if we don’t become a (democracy)... the leader might end up getting strung up by his legs or poisoned in the cellar.”
These are risky comments to make in a country still reeling from a sweeping crackdown Erdogan unleashed after surviving a failed coup in 2016.
Their trial is coming with Erdogan rattled by a burst of student protests that hint at Turks’ impatience with his commanding rule as prime minister and president since 2003.
Prosecutors want to put the two veteran celebrities behind bars for up to four years and eight months. The verdict is expected on Monday.

Jailed over book
Thousands of Turks, from a former Miss Turkey to school children, have been prosecuted for insulting Erdogan on social media and television.
Bristling at the jokes and comments, Erdogan warned in 2018 that his critics “will pay the price.”
“The next day,” Gezen told AFP in an interview by telephone, “police turned up and I was summoned to give a statement to prosecutors.”
The knock on the door reminded Gezen of how he ended up being dragged before the courts after spending 20 days in jail when a military junta overthrew Turkey’s civilian government at the height of the Cold War in 1980.
Gezen’s book about Nazim Hikmet — perhaps Turkey’s most famous 20th century poet, who happened to be a communist who died in exile in Moscow in 1963 — was taken off the shelves after that coup.
“I was chained up while being taken from prison to court with a gang of 50 criminals, including murderers and smugglers,” he recalled.
He was freed by the court in 1980, and may yet be acquitted on Monday.
Still, Gezen is uncomfortable with the similarities, and with Turkey’s trajectory under Erdogan.
“There is a record number of journalists in jail — we have never seen this in the history of the republic. That’s what upsets me,” he said.

Irritable dictator
An author of more than 50 books and founder of his own art center in Istanbul, Gezen says he has “either criticized or parodied politicians to their faces” for decades without going to jail.
His popularity and resolve earned him a role in 2007 as a goodwill ambassador for the UNICEF children’s relief fund.
But he fears that Turkey’s tradition of outspoken artists — “art is by its nature oppositional,” he remarked — is wilting under Erdogan.
“We now have self-censorship. But what is even more painful to me is that (some artists) prefer to be apolitical,” he said.
“The president has said how he expects artists to behave. But it cannot be the president of a country who decides these things. It’s the artists who must decide.”
To be on the safe side, Gezen’s lawyers now read his books before publication to avoid legal problems.
“It is risky in Turkey,” he observed.
Many of the opposition media outlets that once flourished have been either closed or taken over by government allies, leaving independent voices with even fewer options.
But he remains doggedly optimistic, calling democracy in Turkey something tangible but just out of reach, like the shore for a stranded boat.
“And then someone up on the mast will cry: Land ahoy!“


US authorizes Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use

US authorizes Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use
Updated 28 February 2021

US authorizes Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use

US authorizes Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use
  • The J&J vaccine is the third to be greenlighted in the US after Pfizer’s and Moderna’s were provisionally approved in December
  • US President Joe Biden hails 'exciting news' but urge Americans not to let guard down

WASHINGTON: The United States on Saturday authorized Johnson & Johnson’s Covid vaccine for emergency use, giving the nation a third shot to battle the outbreak that has killed more than 500,000 Americans.
The single-shot vaccine is highly effective in preventing severe Covid-19, including against newer variants, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said before giving it a green light.
“This is exciting news for all Americans, and an encouraging development in our efforts to bring an end to the crisis,” US President Joe Biden said in a statement.
But he urged Americans to remain vigilant with anti-virus curbs such as social distancing, warning that new variants of the virus still posed a threat.
“But we cannot let our guard down now or assume that victory is inevitable,” he said.
A third vaccine is seen as a vital means to ramp up the immunization rate in the United States, where more than 500,000 people have lost their lives to the coronavirus.
In large clinical trials, the J&J vaccine’s efficacy against severe disease was 85.9 percent in the United States, 81.7 percent in South Africa, and 87.6 percent in Brazil.
Overall, among 39,321 participants across all regions, the efficacy against severe Covid-19 was 85.4 percent, but it fell to 66.1 percent when including moderate forms of the disease.
Crucially, analyses of various demographic groups revealed no marked differences across age, race, or people with underlying conditions.
The J&J vaccine is the third to be greenlighted in the United States after Pfizer’s and Moderna’s were provisionally approved in December.

Practical advantages
Over 65 million people in America have so far received at least one shot of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines — but unlike those, the J&J vaccine requires just one dose, and is stored at fridge temperatures, offering logistical and practical advantages.
The J&J shot appears less protective than Pfizer and Moderna’s two-shot regimens, which both have an efficacy of around 95 percent against all forms of Covid-19 from the classic coronavirus strain.
All three have been shown to fully protect against hospitalizations and death, however.
Nirav Shah, director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told The Washington Post the two earlier vaccines were tested months before the emergence of “variants of concern” that could affect the efficacy, meaning the Pfizer and Moderna results were not an “apples to apples” comparison with the J&J shot.
There was a hint, based on preliminary data, that the J&J vaccine might be effective against asymptomatic infection — though the company said it needs to do more research.
The company has announced it aims to deliver 20 million doses by the end of March, with 100 million by June — though the US is pushing to expedite that timeline.
The J&J vaccine uses a common-cold causing adenovirus, which has been genetically modified so that it can’t replicate, to carry the gene for a key protein of the coronavirus into human cells.


US Justice Department to appeal judge’s order on eviction moratorium

US Justice Department to appeal judge’s order on eviction moratorium
Updated 28 February 2021

US Justice Department to appeal judge’s order on eviction moratorium

US Justice Department to appeal judge’s order on eviction moratorium
  • The CDC eviction moratorium was signed in September by President Donald Trump
  • President Joe Biden until March 31 to give tenants a breathing spell as the pandemic continues

WASHINGTON: The Justice Department said Saturday it will appeal a judge’s ruling that found the federal government’s eviction moratorium was unconstitutional.
Prosecutors filed a notice in the case on Saturday evening, saying that it was appealing the matter the to the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.
On Thursday, US District Judge J. Campbell Barker ruled that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had overstepped its authority and that the moratorium was unlawful.
“Although the COVID-19 pandemic persists, so does the Constitution,” the judge wrote.
The CDC eviction moratorium was signed in September by President Donald Trump and extended by President Joe Biden until March 31.
Barker, who was nominated by Trump in 2018 to serve in the Eastern District of Texas, stopped short of issuing an injunction in the case. Several property owners had brought the litigation arguing that the federal government didn’t have the legal authority to stop evictions.
“The federal government cannot say that it has ever before invoked its power over interstate commerce to impose a residential eviction moratorium,” Barker wrote. “It did not do so during the deadly Spanish Flu pandemic. Nor did it invoke such a power during the exigencies of the Great Depression. The federal government has not claimed such a power at any point during our Nation’s history until last year.”
State and local governments had approved eviction moratoriums early in the pandemic for many renters, but many of those protections have already expired.
To be eligible for protection, renters must have an income of $198,000 or less for couples filing jointly, or $99,000 for single filers; demonstrate they’ve sought government help to pay rent; declare that they can’t pay because of COVID-19 hardships; and affirm that they are likely to become homeless if evicted.


Armenian President Sarkisian rejects army chief’s dismissal

Armenian President Sarkisian rejects army chief’s dismissal
Updated 28 February 2021

Armenian President Sarkisian rejects army chief’s dismissal

Armenian President Sarkisian rejects army chief’s dismissal
  • Earlier in the day, 5,000 opposition protesters waving Armenian flags and calling for Pashinyan’s resignation gathered for the third day running outside the parliament in Yerevan

YEREVAN: Armenian President Armen Sarkisian said on Saturday he had refused to sign a prime ministerial order to dismiss the army’s chief of staff, deepening a national political crisis.
The ex-Soviet nation has faced turmoil since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a Moscow-brokered peace accord in November, sealing a humiliating defeat to Azerbaijan after six weeks of fighting over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Divisions widened Thursday when Pashinyan defied a call by the military to resign, accused the army of an attempted coup, and ordered the chief of the general staff Onik Gasparyan to be fired.
On Saturday, Armenian President Sarkisian said in a statement that he would not back the sacking.
“The president of the republic, within the framework of his constitutional powers, returned the draft decree with objections,” the presidency said.
It added that the political crisis “cannot be resolved through frequent personnel changes.”
Earlier in the day, 5,000 opposition protesters waving Armenian flags and calling for Pashinyan’s resignation gathered for the third day running outside the parliament in Yerevan.

BACKGROUND

Armenia has faced turmoil since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a Moscow-brokered peace accord in November.

Some protesters have now set up camp there.
“Today Pashinyan has no support. I call on the security services and the police to join the army, to support the army,” said former premier Vazgen Manukyan, who has been named by the opposition to replace Pashinyan.
“I am sure that the situation will be resolved within two to three days,” he told the crowd.
Pashinyan has faced fierce criticism since he signed a peace deal over Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian region that broke from Azerbaijan’s control during a war in the early 1990s.
The agreement was seen as a national humiliation for many in Armenia, but Pashinyan has said he had no choice but to agree or see his country’s forces suffer even bigger losses.


Egypt’s tourism ‘will return to pre-COVID-19 levels by fall 2022’

Egypt’s tourism ‘will return to  pre-COVID-19 levels by fall 2022’
Updated 28 February 2021

Egypt’s tourism ‘will return to pre-COVID-19 levels by fall 2022’

Egypt’s tourism ‘will return to  pre-COVID-19 levels by fall 2022’
  • The tourism sector is one of the Egyptian economy’s main pillars. It made revenues of $4 billion in 2020, compared to $13.03 billion in 2019. The country received about 3.5 million tourists last year, compared to 13 million in 2019

CAIRO: Tourism in Egypt will return to pre-pandemic levels by fall 2022, according to a government minister.
Khaled Al-Anani, who is minister of tourism and antiquities, said the sector’s recovery and restoration to pre-pandemic levels would be because of countries’ COVID-19 vaccination programs as well as Egypt’s efforts in developing archaeological sites in the Red Sea and South Sinai areas.
He said that, in the last three months of 2020, Egypt had received between 270,000 and 290,000 tourists on a monthly basis, equivalent to 10,000 tourists a day.
Al-Anani said the Grand Egyptian Museum would be finished during the third quarter of 2021 provided that, within the next few days, the winning international coalition to manage the museum’s operations was announced.
He added that the ministry had contacted 30 companies that organize concerts and Olympics to participate in the opening ceremony of the Grand Egyptian Museum but, while three had been chosen to organize the event, the pandemic had disrupted these plans.
The tourism sector is one of the Egyptian economy’s main pillars. It made revenues of $4 billion in 2020, compared to $13.03 billion in 2019. The country received about 3.5 million tourists last year, compared to 13 million in 2019.
At the start of 2020 it was expected that Egypt would receive over 14 million tourists.
It received 2 million tourists in the first quarter of last year until the pandemic hit and led to a contraction in tourism, according to the minister’s adviser and ministry spokesperson, Soha Bahgat.
“The tourism sector in the whole world has been affected in an unprecedented way due to the pandemic … and Egypt has taken strict precautionary measures to limit the spread of the virus, and at the same time supportive measures for the economy, including supporting the tourism sector,” she said.
Egypt managed to attract about a million tourists from last July to the start of 2021.
Bahgat added that although the number was small, it had led many establishments to resume operations and slowly maintain the tourism sector.