Despite the gloomy political situation in the whole region, one of the areas that may provide a window for a breakthrough is to give more attention to economic issues through a comprehensive pragmatic regional plan with a time frame and measurable targets to make a real shift. Such a move will have its impact politically and enable the region to take its economic/political destiny into its own hands.
It is becoming a pressing issue following the threat by both the US and the European Union (EU) to suspend aid, but that option was clearly brushed aside thanks basically to the diplomatic and financial support provided by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. The real politics and business considerations back in both Washington and Brussels also played a role in pushing shelving the option of suspending economic aid.
The US is providing on average $1.5 billion in military and economic aid, with the military receiving the bulk of it, namely $1.3 billion.
With such an amount, Egypt occupies the fifth place after Israel, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.
In fact it used to be second after Israel and for strategic and political considerations related to the US war on terror. The other three came along.
Pakistan is a good case to mention, where US aid was suspended by the Clinton administration following the 1999 military coup of General Musharraf, but in less than three years George Bush resumed that aid as part of luring Pakistan to join the war on terror.
The same applies to Egypt, where the military aid is not subjected to review because it involves a strategic goal of keeping the peace treaty with Israel. So in a nutshell all the talk about aid is fueled basically by these considerations.
Moreover, any review of such aid that may lead to a suspension or reduction in the flow will result in problems for the US administration in terms of un-honored contracts with heavyweight companies with strong connections like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raython, Deloitte and others. They have contracts worth millions of dollars to supply some military equipment and accessories.
Any suspension of such contracts will result in laying off some workers and add to the politically sensitive issue of unemployment.
The EU on the other hand had a 5 billion euro aid program for Egypt in addition to smaller amounts from individual countries and another one billion euros in what is called European Neighborhood Partnership Instrument (ENPI).
The importance of the EU aid program is that if it was agreed upon it will unlock aid from various financial institutions like the World Bank and the African Development Bank that are estimated to top more than $14 billion.
Besides, Egypt represents one of important trading partners for the EU located directly on its southern borders and where bilateral trade between the two amounted to 23.8 billion euros subject to increase.
However, because of the political paralysis that had engulfed the country for the past three years very little has been achieved on the economic side that can make use of the allotted budget.
According to EU figures, of the 892 million euros ENPI allocated for Egypt only 16 million euros were utilized.
Even that amount will not trickle all of it to the Egyptians, but the bulk of it usually go to the donors in terms of paying for consultants or contractors, use of logistics, services or commodities provided by the donor. In some calculations may be 20 percent at best actually benefit those targeted by these aid programs and are basically intended for them.
Still Western aid has its significance in terms of use of modern technology, organization and modern management methods, which add real value.
But all that could be bought out given the availability of funding, which is the case so far given the $12 billion pledged by the three main Gulf countries, of which already $5 billion is reported to have landed in Cairo.
With the political strife within and about the region taking such tough turn, it is high time to turn this emerging political will to support Egypt into a more concrete workable program to have solid economic infrastructure to base the new Arab order on it.
The Arab League had managed in the past to convene a number of summits specialized mainly in economic issues and Riyadh had hosted the last of these summits.
The next step to take is to start by reviewing the outcome of these summits and see what is achievable, but more important than that is to see the move on this area as part of building a new Arab order.
The turmoil in the region reflects these changes and focusing on the economic base could help in building the much needed alternative.
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