WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Russian crude disruption fails to lift oil market

It was surprising that the supply outage of Russian Urals crude oil flows to Germany and Poland didn’t cause an upward momentum in oil prices, says Faisal Mrza. (AFP)
Updated 27 April 2019

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Russian crude disruption fails to lift oil market

RIYADH: Last week started with a major bullish sentiment in the oil market, after the US said it was halting sanctions waivers on Iranian crude exports. This drove Brent prices to a five-month high, touching $75 per barrel, although they dropped by the end of the week to $72.15.
Though oil prices didn’t change much on a weekly closing basis, a steep price fluctuation took place during the week.
Prices fell sharply at the end of the week on speculation that some Iran crude oil exports may be able to find customers regardless of the end to sanctions waivers. Also, global refining margins fell across the board last week, mostly driven by weak middle distillates margins (diesel and jet fuel), though gasoline margins have remained relatively firm ahead of the high demand season in summer.
Most of the supply distributions have been attributed lately to geopolitical factors; however, some other technical factors have emerged after Europe refineries stopped processing Urals crude from Russia after they found contamination in oil delivered via the Druzhba pipeline.
It was surprising that the supply outage of Russian Urals crude oil flows to Germany and Poland didn’t cause an upward momentum in oil prices, especially given that the global market is already short of supplies of similar crude grades.
Urals crude oil is close in quality to the sour crude produced in the Arabian Gulf. It accounts for most of the Russian crude exports in eastern and central Europe, and almost half of Russia’s total crude oil exports globally.
The contamination came at a time when European refiners are already questioning Urals quality, especially the sulfur levels.
Its unclear whether the concerns will affect Russia’s future market share, and hence the global supply and demand balance. Likewise, it is not yet clear how long the issue will last, given that Reuters reported it could have legal effects, as buyers in Europe could open lawsuits against Russian suppliers.

  •  Faisal Mrza is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter: @faisalmrza


Indonesia hails ‘historic’ $22.9bn mega-investment deal with UAE

Updated 17 January 2020

Indonesia hails ‘historic’ $22.9bn mega-investment deal with UAE

  • Leaders agree initial $6.8bn projects plan, including initiative to build a replica of Abu Dhabi grand mosque in Java

JAKARTA: Indonesia’s business community on Thursday welcomed the UAE’s pledge to pump tens of billions of dollars into a wide range of key sector projects.

President Joko Widodo and his entourage secured an overall $22.9 billion deal during an official two-day visit to Abu Dhabi earlier this week covering the fields of energy, logistics, port construction, mining, and agriculture.

It was also revealed that the delegation brokered a UAE commitment to assist in establishing an Indonesian sovereign wealth fund.

At a bilateral meeting, the Indonesian leader and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan witnessed the signing of 11 business accords between the two countries. Indonesia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Retno Marsudi said the UAE had committed to investing $6.8 billion out of the total agreed spending package into the initiatives.

Luhut Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s chief minister for maritime affairs and investment, described the UAE’s pledges as possibly being “the biggest deals in Indonesia’s history, secured with the UAE within only six months,” referring to the crown prince’s visit to Indonesia last July.

While most lauded the deal, some Indonesian business leaders remained cautious over the long-term prospects for the projects.

Fachry Thaib, head of the Middle East Committee and OIC at the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, said the schemes could trigger a wide-ranging domino effect through job creation and other business ventures.

“The government needs to have a strong lobbying team that can follow up these deals and push them into investment realizations. We have had such commitments from other Gulf countries, but there was no further lobbying and the pledges were hardly realized,” he told Arab News.

Zaini Alawi, a businessman who exports and imports between Indonesia and the Middle East, said: “It would set a good precedent to attract other Gulf countries to invest here if Indonesia shows it could aptly manage these investment deals.”

Director for Middle East affairs at Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, Achmad Rizal Purnama, told Arab News that the $6.8 billion commitment from the UAE was only the first phase of a long-term program.

Widodo and the crown prince also witnessed the signing of five government cooperation agreements in health, agriculture, Islamic affairs, and counterterrorism.

Indonesian Minister of Religious Affairs Fachrul Razi said one of the main aspects of the cooperation agreement would be the promotion of religious moderation and raising awareness of the dangers of extremism.

FASTFACT

The UAE has pledged to assist in establishing an Indonesian sovereign wealth fund.

Noting that the UAE had pledged to fund the construction of a replica of the Abu Dhabi grand mosque in Solo, the president’s hometown in Java, the minister pointed out that the grant was part of a commitment by the two countries to establish a mosque that welcomed all people and served a pivotal role in promoting the middle path of Islam.

Riza Widyarsa, a Middle East expert at the University of Indonesia, told Arab News that the cooperation deal could help more Indonesians to understand that not all countries in the Middle East observed conservative Islam. “They are also very active in countering religious extremism and radicalism,” he said.

In addition to the multi-billion-dollar projects, Purnama said Indonesia had also secured the UAE’s commitment to assist in establishing an Indonesian sovereign wealth fund into which the UAE, the US International Development Finance Corporation, and Japan’s SoftBank would inject funding.

And according to Pandjaitan, the UAE had pledged to be “the biggest contributor” to the fund.

The fund would be used to finance Indonesia’s ambitious infrastructure development projects and the construction of its proposed new capital in East Kalimantan, a relocation that has been estimated to cost $33 billion and of which Indonesia could only afford 19 percent.

He said all parties involved would meet in Tokyo soon to set up the structure of the fund and to finalize the plan, which the government expected to launch by mid-2020, a year after the crown prince proposed the idea to Widodo.

“This could be the first time that big capitalists work together in a single project,” Pandjaitan added.