WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Russian crude disruption fails to lift oil market

It was surprising that the supply outage of Russian Urals crude oil flows to Germany and Poland didn’t cause an upward momentum in oil prices, says Faisal Mrza. (AFP)
Updated 27 April 2019

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Russian crude disruption fails to lift oil market

RIYADH: Last week started with a major bullish sentiment in the oil market, after the US said it was halting sanctions waivers on Iranian crude exports. This drove Brent prices to a five-month high, touching $75 per barrel, although they dropped by the end of the week to $72.15.
Though oil prices didn’t change much on a weekly closing basis, a steep price fluctuation took place during the week.
Prices fell sharply at the end of the week on speculation that some Iran crude oil exports may be able to find customers regardless of the end to sanctions waivers. Also, global refining margins fell across the board last week, mostly driven by weak middle distillates margins (diesel and jet fuel), though gasoline margins have remained relatively firm ahead of the high demand season in summer.
Most of the supply distributions have been attributed lately to geopolitical factors; however, some other technical factors have emerged after Europe refineries stopped processing Urals crude from Russia after they found contamination in oil delivered via the Druzhba pipeline.
It was surprising that the supply outage of Russian Urals crude oil flows to Germany and Poland didn’t cause an upward momentum in oil prices, especially given that the global market is already short of supplies of similar crude grades.
Urals crude oil is close in quality to the sour crude produced in the Arabian Gulf. It accounts for most of the Russian crude exports in eastern and central Europe, and almost half of Russia’s total crude oil exports globally.
The contamination came at a time when European refiners are already questioning Urals quality, especially the sulfur levels.
Its unclear whether the concerns will affect Russia’s future market share, and hence the global supply and demand balance. Likewise, it is not yet clear how long the issue will last, given that Reuters reported it could have legal effects, as buyers in Europe could open lawsuits against Russian suppliers.

  •  Faisal Mrza is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter: @faisalmrza


Aramco chief sees demand for oil staying above 100m barrels

Updated 23 January 2020

Aramco chief sees demand for oil staying above 100m barrels

  • A panel on the global energy outlook at the WEF in Davos heard that renewable energy alone would not be able to meet rising demand for power as more people moved into the middle class
  • The panel also heard that coal, not oil, remained the biggest source of carbon emissions

DAVOS: Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said he expected global oil demand to stay above the 100 million barrels threshold as the rise of the global middle class spurred demand for energy.
A panel on the global energy outlook at the World Economic Forum in Davos heard that renewable energy alone would not be able to meet rising demand for power as more people moved into the middle class.
“There will be additional demand and the only way to meet it is if you continue to provide affordable, reliable and viable energy to the rest of the world,” said the Aramco CEO.
“There is good penetration from renewables and electric cars are picking up however you need to consider what is happening in the world. There are still an additional 2 billion people coming. There are currently 3 billion people using biomass, animal dung, kerosene for cooking and there are 1 billion people today without electricity and almost 50 percent of people have never flown in an aeroplane.”
The panel heard that coal, not oil, remained the biggest source of carbon emissions but that the location of many coal-fired power plants in developing Asian economies meant that reducing its impact was a major challenge.
“The number one source of emissions by far is the coal fire power plants – they alone are responsible for one third of emissions,” said International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. “But they are in many cases the number one source of electricity generation in low income countries - so this is not a black and white issue.”