Oil prices rise on gains prompted by tensions between US and Iran

The tanker Kokuka Courageous, which the US Navy says was damaged by a limpet mine, anchored off Fujairah. (AP)
Updated 25 June 2019

Oil prices rise on gains prompted by tensions between US and Iran

  • Russian energy minister praises international cooperation to stabilize oil markets

LONDON: Oil prices rose on Monday, extending large gains last week that were prompted by tensions between Iran and the US, as Washington was set to announce new sanctions on Tehran.

West Texas Intermediate crude was up 50 cents, or 0.87 percent, at $57.93 a barrel.

Brent futures were up 9 cents, or 0.14 percent at $65.29 a barrel by 1040 GMT.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday he called off a military strike in retaliation for the shooting down of a US drone by Iran, saying the potential death toll would be disproportionate, adding on Sunday that he was not seeking war.

Oil prices surged after Iran shot down the aircraft on Thursday that the US claimed was in international airspace and Tehran said was over its territory.

Brent racked up a gain of about 5 percent last week, its first weekly gain in five weeks, and WTI jumped about 10 percent, its biggest weekly percentage gain since December 2016.

But US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said “significant” sanctions on Iran would be announced on Monday aimed at further choking off resources that Tehran uses to fund its activities in the region.

British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said the UK believed neither the US nor Iran wanted a conflict but warned tensions could lead to an “accidental war.”

Also boosting prices, global supply may remain tight as OPEC and its allies including Russia appear likely to extend their oil cut pact at their meeting July 1-2 in Vienna, analysts said.

“An extension of OPEC+ production cuts through the end of the year seems highly likely given recent price action,” US investment bank Jefferies said in a note.

“The market expects an extension though, and any failure could see oil price gap down. The probabilities favor restraint however,” it added.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Monday said international cooperation on crude production had helped stabilize oil markets and is more important than ever.

“There is a good example of successful cooperation in balancing the oil market between the OPEC countries and non-OPEC. Thanks to joint efforts, we today see a stabilization of world oil markets,” Novak said.

Boosting oil demand, prospects of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve aimed at bolstering the US economy have weakened the dollar.

Oil is usually priced in dollars, and a slide in the value of the weaker greenback makes it cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Separately, Iranian crude exports have dropped so far in June to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) or less after the US tightened the screws on Tehran’s main source of income, industry sources said and tanker data showed, deepening global supply losses.

The US reimposed sanctions on Iran in November after pulling out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Tehran and six world powers. Aiming to cut Iran’s sales to zero, Washington in May ended sanctions waivers to importers of Iranian oil.

Iran has nonetheless sent abroad about 300,000 bpd of crude in the first three weeks of June, according to two industry sources who track the flows. Data from Refinitiv Eikon put crude shipments at about 240,000 bpd.

“It’s a very low level of real crude exports,” said one of the sources.

The squeeze on exports from Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is a key factor for the producer group and its allies, which meet on July 1-2 to decide whether to pump more oil in the rest of 2019.

Iran’s June exports are down from about 400,000-500,000 bpd in May as estimated by the industry sources and Refinitiv and a fraction of the more than 2.5 million bpd that Iran shipped in April 2018, the month before President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal.

Iranian exports have become more opaque since US sanctions returned in November, making it harder to assess volumes.

Tehran no longer reports its production figures to OPEC and there is no definitive information on exports since it can be difficult to tell if a vessel has sailed to a specific end-user.

Refinitiv Eikon data showed Iran has exported 5.7 million barrels of crude in the first 24 days of June to the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Singapore and Syria, although these may not be the final destinations.

Kpler, another company which tracks oil flows, estimates that Iran loaded 645,000 bpd of crude and condensate, a light oil, onto tankers in the first half of June, of which 82 percent are floating in Gulf waters.

That would put actual crude exports in the first half of the month even lower than 300,000 bpd.

“American restrictions are having a clear effect on Iran’s ability to sell into global markets,” Kpler said.


Saudi central bank ready for any Aramco-related liquidity squeeze

Updated 22 min 46 sec ago

Saudi central bank ready for any Aramco-related liquidity squeeze

  • Aramco’s long-awaited listing on the Saudi Arabian stock exchange is due on Wednesday
  • The central bank has set up a team to closely monitor all indicators in the banking system during the IPO

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s central bank is ready for any liquidity squeeze from Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO) and is closely monitoring local banks, its governor said, after heavy demand for loans to buy the stock.
Aramco’s long-awaited listing on the Saudi Arabian stock exchange is due on Wednesday, completing the largest IPO on record and raising $25.6 billion from retail and institutional buyers who took on debt to back their orders.
“We don’t rule out that there might be squeeze of liquidity later on, that’s why I am ready and stand ready to intervene,” Ahmed Al-Kholifey told Reuters.
Saudis had clamoured to own part of the “crown jewel” of the world’s top oil exporter in the lead up to its IPO, with Aramco’s institutional tranche 6.2 times oversubscribed, while more than 5 million individuals subscribed to a retail tranche.
The Aramco IPO is the centerpiece of the Saudi crown prince’s plans to diversify the economy away from a reliance on oil, as the money will be reinvested by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) to promote growth in other sectors.
During the IPO process, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) at some banks had exceeded a 90% “soft guideline” set by the regulator, but the ratio improved after the allocation process ended, Kholifey said in an interview.
“So far no bank has come to ask for liquidity from the central bank. We are ready to intervene in case there is a squeeze of liquidity but most of the indicators right now are not worrying,” Kholifey added.
MONITORING TEAM
The central bank has set up a team specifically to closely monitor all indicators in the banking system during the IPO process, and it held meetings on a daily basis.
“I don’t think in the near future they will settle, we have to keep monitoring the situation until we see things are normal, especially the LDR,” he said.
Saudi corporates snapped up the biggest percentage of allocations to the Aramco IPO at 37.5% and Saudi government institutions were allocated 13.2% of the institutional tranche, the latest figures issued by the deal’s lead bank showed.
Kholifey said that less than 2% of retail subscriptions were leveraged, and most of the bank financing went to high-net-worth individuals and institutional buyers.
He expects most of the IPO proceeds to be invested locally by the PIF, given that most of subscription were internal.
Riyadh scaled back its original IPO plans, scrapping an international roadshow to focus on marketing Aramco to Saudi investors and Gulf Arab allies. It has remained silent on when or where it might list Aramco stock abroad.