WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices move up despite bearish outlook

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices move up despite bearish outlook
An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. (REUTERS)
Updated 14 July 2019

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices move up despite bearish outlook

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices move up despite bearish outlook
  • It forecast US oil production to average 12.36 million bpd in 2019, up about 40,000 bpd from last month’s forecast, and 13.26 million bpd in 2020

OPEC kept its modest global oil demand growth forecast at 1.14 million bpd for 2020, suggesting that the world would need 29.27 million bpd of crude from its 14 members in 2020, down 1.34 million bpd this year.
After holding stable below $65 and $60 for nearly two months respectively, Brent crude’s price jumped to $66.72 and WTI’s to $60.21 per barrel. Oil prices are higher over sharpening US crude inventories and concerns over US Gulf of Mexico production ahead of Tropical Storm Barry, as well as tensions in the Arabian Gulf after Iran’s alleged attempt to block a British-owned tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Atlantic hurricane season threatened offshore oil production and began soaking Louisiana with heavy rains, leading to 15 production platforms and four rigs being evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico. So far, oil companies operating in the area have halted about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of offshore oil output, or 53 percent of the region’s total production.
The Gulf of Mexico and the Texas coast produce about 5 percent of US natural gas and 17 percent of crude oil. Onshore facilities account for about 45 percent of US refining capacity and 51 percent of its gas processing. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port will be closely monitoring Atlantic storm activity.
The weather has added to the headaches caused by the increasing demand for refined products while US inventories continued to recede more than expected for the fourth consecutive week. As US oil producers in the gulf cut more than half their output, commercial crude stocks fell 9.5 million barrels to 459 million barrels, a 12-week low.
Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) monthly oil market report MOMR concluded that OPEC+ output cuts will not change the fundamental outlook of an already oversupplied market. OPEC kept its modest global oil demand growth forecast at 1.14 million bpd for 2020, suggesting that the world would need 29.27 million bpd of crude from its 14 members in 2020, down 1.34 million bpd this year.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) also suggested an oversupply forecast for 2020, with a 2.1 million bpd expansion from non-OPEC supply led by US shale producers. The IEA still sees weak oil demand growth and surging US shale oil output, estimating 2019 oil demand growth at 1.2 million bpd and 1.4 million bpd for 2020.
The EIA, in its short-term energy outlook, sees crude oil demand growing more slowly than previously expected. It forecast US oil production to average 12.36 million bpd in 2019, up about 40,000 bpd from last month’s forecast, and 13.26 million bpd in 2020.

Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter:@faisalfaeq


Global chip shortage offers silver lining to KSA’s local industry

Global chip shortage offers silver lining to KSA’s local industry
Updated 01 March 2021

Global chip shortage offers silver lining to KSA’s local industry

Global chip shortage offers silver lining to KSA’s local industry
  • The shortage has pushed chip stocks to record highs, and analysts expect that chips will continue to be in short supply at least through the end of 2021

RIYADH: A global semiconductor chip shortage as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has increased the need for the Kingdom to boost its local production so it is less dependent on foreign manufacturers, a Kingdom-based IT expert said.

The shortage has pushed chip stocks to record highs, and analysts expect that chips will continue to be in short supply at least through the end of 2021.

Maribel Lopez, principal analyst at San Francisco-based Lopez Research, told MarketWatch the chip industry is facing “a perfect storm” of demand and supply issues that is unlikely to resolve soon.

“Unless we have a major economic meltdown, which is obviously possible, one of the things that’s happening right now is that almost anything you buy is going to have a chip in it,” Lopez said.

Reuters reported that chip prices could increase by up to 6 percent this year, but the delay has also seen production cut short. Carmaker Ford said it could see production cut by 20 percent as a result of the shortage of supply. Last week, US President Joe Biden announced $37 billion in funding to address the situation.

“The importance of semiconductors cannot be ignored due to their massive need in the Internet of Things, computers, smartphones, and consumer electronics devices. However, the global semiconductor scarcity and its unprecedented demand amid the pandemic have aggravated the situation for a wide array of industries. It has forced automotive, defense, industrial and other manufacturers to cut production and even shut down assembly lines,” Dr. Muhammad Khurram Khan, professor of cybersecurity at King Saud University and founder and CEO of the Global Foundation for Cyber Studies and Research in Washington, told Arab News.

He added: “If the current situation persists for the next few months, there are higher chances that the Kingdom may also observe a price hike for electronic items. So, it is better for local importers, businesses, and consumers to plan accordingly.”

The professor said that the current global supply shortage could be the catalyst for Saudi Arabia to invest more in this sector and develop its local capabilities.

“This would reduce dependence on imports, meet the local manufacturing demands, boost the economy, and create job opportunities in the Kingdom as per Saudi Vision 2030,” he added.


Saudi Arabia to allow Boeing 737 MAX to return to service

Saudi Arabia to allow Boeing 737 MAX to return to service
Updated 28 February 2021

Saudi Arabia to allow Boeing 737 MAX to return to service

Saudi Arabia to allow Boeing 737 MAX to return to service
  • Boeing 737 MAX aircraft was grounded globally in March 2019
  • National carriers do not operate the Max model

LONDON: Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority announced on Sunday that the Boeing 737 MAX plane would be allowed to return to service in the Kingdom.
The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) said the decision came after completing a review, taking the necessary measures, and completing all required tests by the US Federal Aviation Administration, the European Aviation Safety Agency and other civil aviation authorities around the world.
Boeing’s top-selling MAX was grounded globally in March 2019 after two fatal crashes involving the same model in five months.
The authority said that national carriers do not operate the Max model, but several foreign airlines operate flights to and from Saudi airports, and several flights cross their airspace with the same model.
GACA said the temporary suspension was lifted after “close coordination with the international civil aviation community, regarding changes, licensing and training, to ensure the highest level of safety.”
The civil authority also published a navigational notice permitting the MAX model to return to service. 
(With Reuters)


KPMG: 98% of Saudi CEOs set to invest in cloud technology in 2021  

KPMG: 98% of Saudi CEOs set to invest in cloud technology in 2021  
Updated 28 February 2021

KPMG: 98% of Saudi CEOs set to invest in cloud technology in 2021  

KPMG: 98% of Saudi CEOs set to invest in cloud technology in 2021  
  • Artificial intelligence, robotic process automation and 5G also set for more investment, according to survey
  • 88% of Saudi-based CEOs see technological transformation as an opportunity rather than a threat

JEDDAH: Senior company executives in Saudi Arabia are embracing the digital revolution, with 98 percent planning to raise their investments in cloud computing this year, according to a new survey.
Cloud computing is at the top of the technology agendas for CEOs in the Kingdom, with investments in artificial intelligence, robotic process automation and 5G also popular, according to the global consultancy firm KPMG’s 2020 CEO Outlook survey.
While technological advances can bring security challenges, 88 percent of Saudi-based CEOs see technological transformation as an opportunity rather than a threat.
“The pace of technological adoption has quickened this year as organizations react to the new working reality. Most of the CEOs believe the pandemic has accelerated the creation of a seamless digital customer experience and [that the] creation of new digital revenue streams has advanced during the pandemic,” said Mazhar Hussain, chief disruption officer at KPMG in Saudi Arabia.
“Nonetheless, the pandemic has seen an uptick of cyberattacks, which has increased awareness and investment into cybersecurity. The number of vulnerabilities in most organizations’ operations has increased with remote work. Hence, companies must resist the urge to direct budget cuts toward preventative cyber measures and [view] the sharp increase in global cybercrime as a reason to keep advancing their cyber defenses,” he added.
At the same time, the pandemic has shaken CEO confidence in global economic growth, according to the KPMG survey. Almost 32 percent said they are less confident about global growth prospects in the next three years than they were at the beginning of the year.
While cloud computing investment is a priority, a survey in January by German business software company SAP found that while more than four-fifths (89 percent) of Saudi senior public sector executives agreed that data sharing helped them to improve on how they connected with citizens, many had not invested in training to implement this.
SAP found that while 83 percent of respondents said data sharing improved their innovation in current goods or services, only 22 percent did this with partners. And when it came to training, only 33 percent of respondents had retrained employees on how best to analyze data. This skills shortage was cited by 61 percent of respondents as being a barrier to meeting strategic change initiatives.


Saudi fast-food chain Herfy expands in Bangladesh

Saudi fast-food chain Herfy expands in Bangladesh
Updated 28 February 2021

Saudi fast-food chain Herfy expands in Bangladesh

Saudi fast-food chain Herfy expands in Bangladesh
  • Herfy inaugurated its first branch outside the Middle East under a franchise system in Bangladesh in December 2017
  • Herfy Food Services Company was established in 1981, and the first Herfy restaurant opened in Riyadh that same year

JEDDAH: Herfy Food Services Company, Saudi Arabia’s largest fast-food chain, has opened its fifth restaurant in Bangladesh, following the success of previous branches in the capital city.
The financial impact from the opening will reflect in the first quarter of 2021, the company said in a Tadawul statement.
Herfy inaugurated its first branch outside the Middle East under a franchise system in Bangladesh in December 2017. 
According to an agreement signed with Bangladeshi private-sector company Greenland Services Ltd. in 2016, Herfy aims to open 30 outlets within “a few years.”
In 2020, Herfy reported an estimated annual net profit after zakat and tax of SR 53.6 million ($14.29 million), a drop of 73 percent year-on-year, as revenue for the year fell 16.6 percent to SR 1.074 billion.
Herfy was hit by the closure of its restaurants in malls and shopping centers. Moreover, working hours at stores had been reduced while administrative and general expenses had increased.
At its Bangladesh branches, Herfy offers training for employees and provides its franchisees with its own products, including meat, chicken and sauces — all made in its Saudi-based factories.
Herfy Food Services Company was established in 1981, and the first Herfy restaurant opened in Riyadh that same year. As of September 2020, the company owns a total of 40 restaurants and leases 345.


Huge surge in GCC demand for Ivy League university coaches

Huge surge in GCC demand for Ivy League university coaches
Updated 28 February 2021

Huge surge in GCC demand for Ivy League university coaches

Huge surge in GCC demand for Ivy League university coaches
  • Companies like Crimson Education coach students on how to improve their chances of being one of the few who receive an offer letter
  • Demand can differ from country to country, with those in the UAE preferring British institutions

DUBAI: Getting into a prestigious Ivy League university is no easy task. 
According to the latest figures, California’s Stanford University was especially picky, with a 2019 acceptance rate of just 4 percent. Columbia and Harvard followed with 5 percent, while Princeton and Yale were slightly easier with 6 percent of applicants getting offers.
The race to get these coveted places is also getting harder as the number of applicants has gone up and universities have become even stricter. Dubai-based Crimson Education has reported a surge in clients looking for help to gain access to institutions in the US, as well as into Oxford and Cambridge.
“The number of students who joined Crimson Education in the region over the past six months was 200 percent up from the same period the previous year,” Soraya Behesti, regional director for the Middle East and Africa at Crimson Education, told Arab News. “The company had a big push to hire new strategists in order to meet the surging demand. Crimson grew 250 percent from 2019 to 2020 and is projected to grow more than 150 percent this year.” 
The demand makes sense. 
A 2015 report from the US Department of Education found that the average salary of Ivy League graduates a decade after they finished university was $70,000 a year, compared to the average salary for non-Ivy League graduates of $34,000.
Companies like Crimson Education coach students on how to improve their chances of being one of the few who receive an offer letter, and Behesti said the acceptance rate among their clients was three times the global average.
There are also a number of trends which has seen demand for such services skyrocket in recent years.
“The number of students who applied early to Ivy League colleges skyrocketed in 2020, although the acceptance rate reached record lows,” Behesti added. “Applications to Columbia and Harvard’s early rounds increased from the previous year by 49 percent and 57 percent, respectively. Applying early to their top-choice university usually gives students an advantage but last year, the early round acceptance rate was closer to that of the regular round, with Harvard admitting just 7.4 percent of early applicants, from 13.9 percent in the previous year.”
Students have started enrolling for help earlier because of the increased competition, and Behesti said Crimson had seen a rise in demand from clients as young as nine.
“When we work with students from a young age, our sessions and objectives are not focused on universities per se, but building really strong foundations, developing a growth mindset, cultivating good study habits, learning entrepreneurial thinking and even developing core skills such as coding, debate or languages.”
Demand can differ from country to country, with those in the UAE preferring British institutions, while Saudi students show a preference for US ones, especially Columbia, Harvard and Yale. 
Having the right aptitude is good, but money also really counts. Crimson said that studying at an Ivy League university cost between $30,000 and $45,000 per year, although between 40 and 60 percent of students received some form of financial aid.
“For GCC students, governments offer attractive scholarships — but usually only for students who gain admission to the top 100 universities. We have worked with Emirati and Saudi students of all abilities, from A-grade academics to students struggling at school, to ensure their admission to the top 100 schools through academic tutoring, admissions support and extra-curricular coaching, thereby allowing them to receive government scholarships,” Behesti said.