Experts see rupture in Russia’s ties with Turkey after cancellation of talks

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (2nd L) and Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan (L) enter a hall during a meeting in Sochi, Russia November 13, 2017. (REUTERS)
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Updated 16 June 2020

Experts see rupture in Russia’s ties with Turkey after cancellation of talks

  • Sezer said the situation of Syrian mercenaries fighting in Libya is a “red line” for the Kremlin and another point of contention between Moscow and Ankara

ANKARA: As Russia’s foreign and defense ministers postponed at the last minute a planned visit to Turkey on Sunday to discuss the Libya and Syria conflicts, the reasons for the decision have become a topic of speculation.
On the same day, French President Emmanuel Macron harshly criticized Turkey’s “aggressive” intervention in Libya, and accused Ankara of violating a UN arms embargo and dispatching several ships to the war-torn country.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were set to visit Istanbul with a high-level delegation, a few days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone call with his US counterpart Donald Trump.
Ankara “wants to use Libya as leverage in its overall bilateral relations with the US, and most likely intends to coordinate some aspects of the cease-fire agreement with Washington, and possibly to harmonize them with US interests in the area,” Madalina Vicari, an expert on geopolitics and Turkey, told Arab News, adding that the US wants to prevent increased Russian influence in Libya.
Aydin Sezer, an Ankara-based expert on Turkey-Russia relations, said disagreements between the two countries about the roadmap to follow after the cease-fire were behind the decision to put off the talks.
“Russia wants to negotiate the Libya issue along with issues related to Syria and especially rebel-held Idlib province,” he told Arab News.
“Therefore Russia wants to increase pressure on Turkey by bringing Iran to the negotiation table because Moscow and Tehran follow similar policies in Idlib, contrary to Turkish priorities.”
Sezer said the situation of Syrian mercenaries fighting in Libya is a “red line” for the Kremlin and another point of contention between Moscow and Ankara.
“Russia accuses Turkey of not eradicating these terrorists in Idlib and exporting them to Libya,” he added.
Sezer said Ankara and Moscow are negotiating ways to decrease Turkey’s military footprint in Libya.
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin recently said Ankara favors a political solution rather than a military one.
But Sezer said: “Turkey insists on keeping its military advisors in Libya until brokering a final peace, which is unacceptable to Russia for the moment.”
Samuel Ramani, a researcher at Oxford University, said the postponement of the visit was Libya-related, although Russian airstrikes in Syria have rankled Turkey.
“I think Russia and Turkey want to meet on Libya when a deal of sorts can be signed. They want progress on intra-Libyan peace negotiations, and Moscow certainly would want Turkey to commit to a military de-escalation,” he told Arab News.
Ramani said another failed meeting, following the walkout in January by eastern Libya strongman Khalifa Haftar, would be seen in Russia as a blow to its status as a diplomatic arbiter.
A source in Ankara said the Russian postponement may be related to a strategic move by Turkey to let Libya’s Government of National Accord take some zones around the city of Sirte, the so-called oil crescent, rather than agree to a quick cease-fire.
“In the meantime, Iran feels uncomfortable with the Astana process (on Syria) turning into a Turkish-Russian project by sidelining Tehran and attacking Iranian militia in the region,” said the source.
“Therefore, the ongoing dynamics in Syria may have indirect repercussions over bilateral negotiations on Libya.”

Tensions between Turkey, France pose threat to NATO alliance, warn experts

Updated 07 July 2020

Tensions between Turkey, France pose threat to NATO alliance, warn experts

  • Turkey ‘challenging’ international norms by breaking arms embargo on Libya, invading northern Syria, claims analyst

JEDDAH: Increasing tensions between France and Turkey were posing a threat to the cohesion of the NATO alliance, experts have warned.

Paris’ recent decision to suspend its involvement in the NATO Sea Guardian maritime security operation in the eastern Mediterranean following an incident between a French frigate and Turkish vessels, has highlighted the organization’s difficulties in maintaining order and harmony among its members.

Months of escalating dispute between France and Turkey came to a head on June 10, when Paris claimed that its La Fayette-class Frigate Courbet was targeted three times by Turkish Navy fire control radars while it was trying to approach a Tanzanian-flagged civilian cargo ship suspected of trafficking arms to Libya.

The cargo ship was under the escort of three Turkish vessels, but Ankara denied harassing the Courbet and demanded an apology from France for disclosing “improper information,” saying the ship in question had been carrying humanitarian aid.

The incident resulted in France pulling out of the NATO operation, partly aimed at enforcing a UN embargo on arms supplies to Libya, and accusing Turkey of importing extremists to Syria.

French President Emmanuel Macron said: “I think that it’s a historic and criminal responsibility for a country that claims to be a member of NATO. We have the right to expect more from Turkey than from Russia, given that it is a member of NATO.”

The classified report on the Courbet incident is expected to be discussed soon by member states of the alliance.

Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system has also angered some NATO members over concerns it could undermine Western defense systems and led to Turkey’s expulsion from the alliance’s F-35 stealth fighter jet program.

Seth J. Frantzman, executive director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis, told Arab News: “NATO faces increasing challenges from its member state Turkey which behaves contrary to NATO’s mission and values.

“Turkey’s government has begun to violate international norms by breaking an arms embargo on the Libyan conflict and invading northern Syria, backing extremist groups, and bombing northern Iraq.

“Ankara has tried to strong-arm NATO into supporting it through threats to hold up a Baltic defense plan and also through threatening and insulting other NATO members.

“Turkey insinuated to the US that Turkey would brush US forces aside in Syria in 2019 if the US didn’t leave, it has escalated conflicts rather than reducing them, and threatened to send refugees to Greece while staking counter claims to the Mediterranean against Greek claims,” he added.

Frantzman pointed out that the controversy with France was a byproduct of this.

“NATO increasingly looks like it is being called upon to appease Ankara’s monthly crises that involve new military operations in several countries. Once a key and helpful ally of NATO, Turkey looks increasingly like it seeks to exploit its NATO membership, using it as a cover for military operations that undermine human rights, democracy, and international norms,” he said.

Turkey is seen as an important and strategic member of the military alliance. On its website, NATO says that all the organization’s decisions are made by consensus, following discussions and consultations among members. “When a ‘NATO decision’ is announced, it is therefore the expression of the collective will of all the sovereign states that are members of the alliance.”

However, recent disagreements within NATO led Macron to say that the alliance was “suffering brain death” over Turkey’s cross-border military offensive into northern Syria last year.

On Turkey’s unilateral behavior, Frantzman said: “This is part of a global rising authoritarian agenda but appears to be counter to the NATO mission that once ostensibly was about defending Western democracies from the Soviet totalitarian threat.

“This calls into question the overall NATO mission and whether NATO is now enabling Ankara’s authoritarian trend. NATO countries are generally afraid to challenge Turkey, thinking that without Turkey and with a US disinterested in global commitments, NATO would become a European club with an unclear future. For Russia that is good news as it supplies S-400 systems to Turkey, further eroding NATO,” he added.

Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, felt NATO would be able to manage the spat between France and Turkey.

“Libya isn’t really a NATO issue. It is out of the area for the alliance. I see this more as a bilateral dispute between two rival powers in the Mediterranean.

“What I worry more about is how NATO members, including both Turkey and France, are letting these bilateral squabbles seep into the North Atlantic Council. They should keep their fights to themselves.”