Next US president should back Arab youth empowerment: survey

Next US president should back Arab youth empowerment: survey
A large proportion of the Arab public wants to see a just solution to the Palestine conflict and an improved future for Palestinian youth. (AFP)
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Updated 27 October 2020

Next US president should back Arab youth empowerment: survey

Next US president should back Arab youth empowerment: survey
  • Arab News/YouGov pan-Arab survey provides a regional wish list of the next US president’s priorities
  • Analysts urge US to encourage economic growth rather than view the Middle East through security lens

DUBAI: Youth empowerment has long been viewed as a key driver of global development. The new Arab News/YouGov pan-Arab survey shows that the issue is a priority for Arabs. Close to half (44 percent) of the respondents said they would like to see the next US president focus on “empowering young people.”

Baria Alamuddin, an award-winning journalist and political commentator, said a long-term challenge for modern Arab states is developing economies capable of absorbing their growing youth populations.

This is especially true, in her view, of those countries that have failed over the past decade to increase the number of “wealth-creating” jobs in the private sector.

“This challenge is as immediate as ever and is a primary motivator behind Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and equivalent initiatives in many other Arab states,” she said.

Alamuddin believes officials in the next US administration may need convincing of the value of investing in the region’s young people.

“The challenge will be to encourage these officials to prioritize the region from a perspective of economic growth and youth empowerment, rather than just from a narrow security and terrorism approach,” she said.

That youth empowerment is so widely cited as a key Arab priority does not surprise Hussein Shobokshi, a Saudi columnist and businessman, who said it reflected the Arab world’s young demographic.

“Right now the loudest voice in the Arab world on all fronts is the youth. They are controlling the rhetoric, they are establishing the priorities on the economic front, new jobs and the direction of these new jobs, and the topics that are engaging in the media and on social media platforms,” he said.

This “rhetoric or lingua franca” is to a large extent influenced by the US through technology and entertainment, he said, but also through higher education. “We were used to the engagement of the US in the field of investment, the economy, in education,” said Shobokshi, referring to the American universities in Beirut, Cairo, Dubai and Sharjah.

However, he thought that unless the US and its Western allies engage with the Arab world’s youth in more substantial ways, the resulting vacuum could soon be filled by Russia or China — causing a potential headache for US policymakers.

The survey also found that 44 percent of Arabs would like to see the next US president play a greater role in solving the Arab-Israeli problem, while 24 percent said containing Iran and Hezbollah ought to be a priority.

In this context, Alamuddin said a large proportion of the Arab public wants to see a just solution to the Palestinian issue alongside an improved relationship with Israel. “These are two sides of the same coin,” she said. “We are all fed up with a frozen conflict which has gone on for 70 years too long — exacerbated by a fragmented and weak Palestinian leadership, which has long since lost the initiative.”

The world must act together to reach and enforce a solution which does justice to both sides, she said.

READ: The methodology behind the Arab News/YouGov Pan-Arab Survey

“There is no solution without the US, but we are likely to see a more balanced process when Arab states, the Europeans, and even Russia and China play a role in ensuring that all sides come to the table and make the necessary concessions.”

As for Iran, Alamuddin believed the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” strategy has certainly reined in Iranian ambitions. “Iran has already taken huge bites out of the Arab region, with its proxies in de facto control of much of Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon,” she said.

Although Democratic challenger Joe Biden appears to recognize that he cannot simply return to the more concessional Obama-era strategy on Iran, it is unclear whether a Biden administration would have the political will to quash Iranian influence in these troubled Arab states.

“The challenge for Gulf states will be to force the threat from Iran to the top of the international agenda,” Alamuddin said.

Shobokshi also acknowledged the important steps taken by the Trump administration against Iran, but said the strategy lacked the required “universality” of including the Europeans, the Russians and the Chinese.

Comparing the differing approaches of the Republican and Democratic parties with regards to the Iranian regime, he said: “One looks at Iran as a serious national threat and the other looks at it in a much tamer fashion.”



What does Ebrahim Raisi’s election victory mean for Iran and the world?

What does Ebrahim Raisi’s election victory mean for Iran and the world?
Updated 7 min 21 sec ago

What does Ebrahim Raisi’s election victory mean for Iran and the world?

What does Ebrahim Raisi’s election victory mean for Iran and the world?
  • US-sanctioned judge becomes new president after election viewed as rigged in his favor
  • Whether Raisi can improve life for ordinary Iranians will be the determinant of its legacy

MISSOURI, US / IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: A popular Persian music video from several years back features a long line of sullen-looking people waiting to be served at a cafeteria. When their turn comes to choose, we see the grim-faced chef offer them the option of maggot-filled mystery meat or slime filled with flies.

Many Iranian artists engage in such oblique attacks on the clerical ruling class since direct criticism of the basic parameters of the political system remains forbidden. The victory of ultraconservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi in Friday’s presidential election highlighted Iranians’ lack of choice in such matters more than ever.

While it is not uncommon for voters in many countries to complain of lack of meaningful choice in elections, the Iranian case takes this phenomenon to new heights. The Guardian Council, an unelected body of clerics and jurists (three of whom were appointed by Raisi), vets would-be political candidates.

Voter turnout for Iran’s presidential poll was the lowest in decades. (AFP)

By many estimates, the council rejects more than 90 percent of applicants who go through the trouble of applying to run for political office. This year it rejected the candidacy of not only popular reformist candidates allied with outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, but also of populist hardliners as well.

The list of candidates forbidden to run in the election thus included current vice-president Eshaq Jahingiri, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani (both allied with Rouhani), and the rightwing populist former president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. These are former political leaders of Iran, among the few allowed to run in previous elections and whose support for the basic tenets of the Islamic Republic seems beyond doubt.

Yet the Guardian Council still deemed them too much of a threat and disqualified their candidacy (along with that of any women, who are all barred from running in such elections). Unsurprisingly in such a climate, voter turnout appeared to have been the lowest in decades. 

How to judge the legitimacy of the Iranian presidential election then?

An electoral campaign poster covers the facade of a building on Valiasr Square in Iran's capital Tehran on June 19, 2021, a day after the presidential election. (AFP / Atta Kenare)

“That depends on how you define ‘legitimate’,” Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told Arab News. “The Guardian Council has always vetted out any candidates seen as insufficiently loyal to the system, although never before had the definition of ‘loyal’ contracted as much as it seemed to have for this election.”

Much less charitable than Slavin is Arash Azizi, author of “The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran’s Global Ambitions.” “Raisi won pretty much the same number of votes in 2021 as he had in 2017 as the losing candidate. But he won this time because the majority of people boycotted the elections,” Azizi told Arab News.

“Even if we believe the official figure, this is the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic, and the first time a majority have not voted in a presidential election. Not to mention the nearly four million voters who spoiled their ballots.”

Aside from the lack of choice in political candidates, the most important decision-making posts in the country are not elected in any case. The supreme leader — currently Ayatollah Khamenei, who took over from Ayatollah Khomeini in 1988 — is selected by the Guardian Council. The heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are likewise not elected but make many of the most important policy decisions in the country.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (AFP)

“Iranians were frustrated at the lack of choice and pessimistic about the prospects for a better life under this regime,” Slavin told Arab News. “For 25 years, they have turned out in large numbers in presidential elections in hopes of achieving peaceful evolutionary change.

“But while Iranian society has progressed, the system has become more repressive and less representative. Also, not voting is a form of protest in a system that regards voting as a patriotic duty.”


40 percent - Iran’s inflation rate in 2019.

5 percent - Jump in poverty rate over past two years.

3.7 million - People added to poverty roll in this period.

83 million - Population of Iran in 2019.

In the past, Khamenei and IRGC commanders preferred to allow limited choice in presidential elections and refrained from intervening too directly or obviously in the political process.

They would use the very restricted electoral system to gauge the popular mood, try and gain some legitimacy by claiming a democratic mandate, and sit back to see what political cards various elites in Iranian society would try to brandish.

Only when he perceived Iran to be veering too far off course would Khamenei step in publicly to make a correction.

Behind the scenes, of course, such unelected leaders played an active role in nearly everything, from economic policy and directives regarding executions of political prisoners to the strategy of Iran’s nuclear negotiations and other matters such as covert operations abroad and funding of various Iranian proxy forces in the region.

Rising poverty, growing unrest and an economy in crisis have rattled the Tehran regime. (AFP)

An economy in crisis and a growing number of popular protests in recent years seem to have rattled the regime, however. Under such conditions, the real leadership fears allowing Iranians even a semblance of choice in this year’s election.

Raisi’s appointment to the presidency therefore probably represents a message to the Iranian people most of all. A protege of Khamenei, Raisi was responsible for mass executions of tens of thousands of Iranian dissidents during the past three decades. He headed “death committees” in 1988 that buried slain political prisoners in mass graves.

According to the Center for Human Rights in Iran, at that time Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who was then the heir apparent to Ayatollah Khomeini, even condemned the death committees, saying: “I believe this is the greatest crime committed in the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution and history will condemn us for it … . History will write you down as criminals.”

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani faced harsh criticism from conservatives today over a poorly implemented scheme to distribute food to low-income families in the sanctions-hit Islamic republic.(AFP file photo)

Even today, Iran stands second only to China — a much larger country — in the number of executions it carries out every year. These are carried out after closed-door kangaroo trials in which defendants are not allowed to even see the evidence against them or confront their accusers, with a disproportionate number of accused coming from ethnic and religious minorities in Iran. Iranian Kurds make up roughly half of those executed, although they constitute less than half of Iran’s population.

Raisi takes up the post of president after serving as chief of the judiciary that oversaw this system and its mass executions of dissidents. Before becoming chief justice in 2019, he served as attorney general (2014–2016), deputy chief justice (2004–2014), and prosecutor and deputy prosecutor of Tehran in the 1980s and 1990s.

He is the first Iranian official to enter the presidency while already under US and European sanctions for his past involvement in human rights abuses.

The message to the Iranian people would therefore seem quite clear: You must behave and stay in line or else.

“Khamenei and the clerical establishment have long made a conscious decision to drive out all political competition. The reformists were drowned in blood once the 2009 Iranian Green movement was crushed, with many of its leaders sent to jail for years and its main political parties banned,” Azizi told Arab News.

“The centrist wing of the regime, represented by Rouhani, was also subsequently pushed out of major positions of power. The pro-Khamenei conservatives now control the iudiciary, the parliament and the presidency. The latter two became possible only after all major electoral rivals were thrown out by the Guardian Council.” 

Hassan Rouhani's moderate leadership was reportedly sidelined in conducting foreign policy by the warmongering Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). (AFP file photo)

Comparing the present situation to the abolition in 1975 of the multi-party system by the shah of Iran, Azizi said: “This is  very much the Islamic Republic’s 1975 one-party state moment as some historians have pointed out. The regime might come to regret the day it turned itself into an ever more monolithic entity.”

Looking to the future, the Atlantic Council’s Slavin says a more pertinent question now than the presidential election’s legitimacy is whether the Raisi administration can improve life for ordinary Iranians as “that will be the determinant of its legacy.”

“Iranians may hope to see a slightly better economy if Tehran comes back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal and sanctions are lifted again,” she said.

“But much depends on the competence or lack thereof of Raisi’s team and the appetite or lack thereof of foreign companies to invest in Iran. I would expect repression of dissent to continue and even accelerate.”

Azizi believes Raisi’s election will not lead to quick changes in people’s lives or a sharp turn in policies. “He will tread carefully as his main goal is to prepare for the day when Khamenei’s death brings a succession crisis and he can be in line to become the supreme leader,” he told Arab News.

“Interestingly enough, Rouhani’s chief of staff Mahmod Vaezi recently speculated that people’s lives might improve under Raisi since there will be dealings with the West, possibly even a deal before Raisi takes office, which should take some pressure off the economy.”

That being said, what might Raisi’s elevation to the presidency mean for Iran’s relations with other countries?

Compared with the more affable and moderate Rouhani, Raisi seems less likely, able or willing to lead an Iranian charm offensive abroad. The style of Iranian diplomacy may therefore change a bit, but the substance or Iranian policy will likely differ little from that of the previous administration.

Rouhani was not the one making the most important Iranian foreign policy choices in any case. He was, along with his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, just the messenger.

“Iran’s policy in the Arab world was neither made nor implemented by the Rouhani administration, so a change in presidency won’t bring an immediate change on this count,” Azizi told Arab News. “But the IRGC will find more unrestricted access to state structures it doesn’t already control and will have a freer hand in regional adventures.”

With an ultraconservative sitting as president, the IRGC will have a freer hand in regional troublemaking adventures, critics warn. (Iranian Army Office photo via AFP) 

Slavin takes a more nuanced view of Iranian ambitions under Raisi’s watch. “I see him as risk averse in foreign affairs in part because he hopes to succeed Khamenei,” she told Arab News.

“I think he will focus on stabilizing the economy and try to reduce tensions with the neighbors. However, he is not in charge of relations with the various militia groups. That will remain within the purview of the Quds Force.”

Tellingly, Raisi has made statements in the past indicating his ready willingness to accept international sanctions on Iran. He views such sanctions as an opportunity for Iran to further develop its own independent, “resistance” economy.

For ultraconservatives like him, too deep an integration with the world economy risks cultural and political perversion of Iran, so anything short of an American military invasion may be perfectly fine for Raisi and his mentor, Khamenei.

The Biden administration, which remains very much interested in resuming the nuclear accord, may thus find it difficult to negotiate with someone who does not seem to mind sanctions and a certain amount of isolation.

However, Azizi thinks the regime will try to seal a deal to get Washington to rejoin the nuclear accord before Raisi takes office in August. “Raisi will thus inherit this deal and maintain it,” he said, although some IRGC elements will be pushing him to permit “more adventurous stuff in the region” and reject Gulf states’ reconciliation and talks offers.

“How amenable he is to such pressure is an open question,” Azizi told Arab News.

EU representative blames Lebanese officials for country’s ills

EU representative blames Lebanese officials for country’s ills
Josep Borrell, the high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy, with Lebanese president. (Supplied)
Updated 20 June 2021

EU representative blames Lebanese officials for country’s ills

EU representative blames Lebanese officials for country’s ills
  • ‘Economic crisis in the country is due to mismanagement and not linked to refugees’

BEIRUT: Josep Borrell, the high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy, has criticized Lebanese officials and conveyed a “severe” message for “not forming the government after nine months of the resignation of Hassan Diab’s government and nomination of Saad Hariri as prime minister-designate.”

Borrell, who is also vice president of the European Commission, said that “the Lebanese crisis is not related to surrounding conditions, nor to war in Syria, but to the political class, which bears responsibility.”
The European official’s statement came after his meeting with Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Saturday at the Presidential Palace. It was the first of a set of meetings that will include the speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, and caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab.
Before Borrell’s arrival to Beirut, news spread that the EU intends to impose sanctions on Lebanese officials responsible for obstructing the formation of the government.
The news was based on a proposal by France, which launched an initiative last September to quickly form a rescue government to stop financial collapse in the country. However, the initiative faced significant obstacles.
Borrell stressed that the “crisis in Lebanon is locally made, and its impact is huge on the Lebanese people, for unemployment rose to 40 percent, and more than 50 percent of the Lebanese live below the poverty line. These are dramatic figures, and the Lebanese presidents and leaders should bear responsibility and form the government without delay, in addition to implementing the necessary reforms.”
The European official said that “only an immediate agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will save Lebanon from a financial collapse, and there is no time to waste.”


• Before the arrival of the EU representative to Beirut, news spread that the union intends to impose sanctions on Lebanese officials responsible for obstructing the formation of the government.

• The news was based on a proposal by France, which launched an initiative last September to quickly form a rescue government to stop financial collapse in the country. However, the initiative faced significant obstacles.

He addressed politicians, saying: “You are on the verge of a full financial collapse.”
Borrell said that “the caretaker government cannot sign an agreement with the IMF, but it can lay the ground for the reforms much required by the international community. Financial and economic aid is usually given to the governments. However, we are willing to give aid directly to civil society.”
Borrell said: “The European Union had provided €330 million ($392.7 million) in aid for Lebanon during 2020. This is equivalent to €1 million per day. And we have set a framework of cooperation with the United Nations to provide aid directly to the Lebanese people.”
“We have various ways and tools to provide aid to the Lebanese government, and we are ready to mobilize them right upon sensing a tangible progress in the necessary reform process,” he said.
Borrell commented on “the proposal of some states to take measures against the ones obstructing the formation of the government,” and declared that the “Council of the European Union is considering many options including sanctions.”
“We prefer not to revert to these measures and we hope that we would not be obliged to do so, but this depends on the Lebanese leadership,” he said.
“The sanctions would mobilize politicians to move forward, and the issue is being considered. I really hope that there would be no need for implementing sanctions. The sanctions path is long and requires good information to determine who is obstructing and who is not.”
During the meeting with Borrell, Aoun called for “the returning of the Syrian refugees back to their country, as the situation has stabilized in most Syrian territories, and Lebanon is no longer capable of bearing  the impact of this displacement.”
Borrell responded in front of the journalists by saying: “We are ready to provide more support to Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and other countries that host refugees. And we are confident that the Lebanese authorities would not revert to the forced return of refugees to their country.”
“The economic crisis in Lebanon is due to mismanagement and is not directly linked to the refugees’ issue,” he said.
He insisted that the upcoming parliamentary elections should be held on time and should not be postponed: “We are ready to send a monitoring team ... to ensure that the elections will be fair.”
Borrell said that he will meet civil society activists to hear their opinion on the current situation, and discuss ways to support their efforts.
The European official asked the “Lebanese authorities to investigate the explosion of the Port of Beirut, hoping that it would lead to the awaited results after nearly one year of the incident.” According to the presidential media office, Aoun had asked Borrell for “European assistance to recover the financial assets which were smuggled out of Lebanon to European banks.”

Biden to host Israeli President Rivlin on June 28 — White House

Biden to host Israeli President Rivlin on June 28 — White House
Updated 19 June 2021

Biden to host Israeli President Rivlin on June 28 — White House

Biden to host Israeli President Rivlin on June 28 — White House
  • Rivlin will visit shortly before he is due to end his seven-year term in July

WASHINGTON: US President Joe Biden plans to host Israel’s new president, Reuven Rivlin, at the White House on June 28, the White House said on Saturday.
“President Rivlin’s visit will highlight the enduring partnership between the United States and Israel and the deep ties between our governments and our people,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement.
Rivlin will visit shortly before he is due to end his seven-year term in July.
Isaac Herzog was elected the country’s new president this month in elections that marked the end of the era of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu era in Israel.
The role of president is largely ceremonial but also meant to promote unity among ethnic and religious groups.
The government changed after last month’s fighting between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza also touched off rare mob violence among the Jewish majority and Arab minority within Israeli cities.
“President Rivlin approaches the end of his term, this visit will honor the dedication he has shown to strengthening the friendship between the two countries over the course of many years,” Psaki said.

Israel says Iran’s Raisi extreme, committed to nuclear program

Israel says Iran’s Raisi extreme, committed to nuclear program
Updated 20 June 2021

Israel says Iran’s Raisi extreme, committed to nuclear program

Israel says Iran’s Raisi extreme, committed to nuclear program
  • Foreign minister Yair Lapid calls Iran's new president the 'butcher of Tehran'
  • Says Ebrahim Raisi is committed to the regime’s nuclear ambitions and to its campaign of global terror

JERUSALEM: Israel on Saturday condemned Iran’s newly-elected president Ebrahim Raisi, saying he was its most extreme president yet and committed to quickly advancing Tehran’s nuclear program.
“Iran’s new president, known as the Butcher of Tehran, is an extremist responsible for the deaths of thousands of Iranians. He is committed to the regime’s nuclear ambitions and to its campaign of global terror,” Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said on Twitter.
A separate statement from the Israeli Foreign Ministry said Raisi’s election should “prompt grave concern among the international community.”
Israel’s new government, sworn in on Sunday, has said it would object to the revival of a 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and its arch-foe, Iran.
Israel sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. Tehran denies seeking nuclear weapons.
Toeing the policy line set by the administration of Israel’s former prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, the foreign ministry said: “More than ever, Iran’s nuclear program must be halted immediately, rolled back entirely and stopped indefinitely.”
“Iran’s ballistic missile program must be dismantled and its global terror campaign vigorously countered by a broad international coalition.”
Raisi, a hard-line judge who is under US sanctions for human rights abuses, secured victory as expected on Saturday in Iran’s presidential election after a contest marked by voter apathy over economic hardships and political restrictions.

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Parties to Iran nuclear deal to hold formal meeting on Sunday: EU

Parties to Iran nuclear deal to hold formal meeting on Sunday: EU
Updated 19 June 2021

Parties to Iran nuclear deal to hold formal meeting on Sunday: EU

Parties to Iran nuclear deal to hold formal meeting on Sunday: EU
  • The meeting comes amid the sixth round of indirect talks between Washington and Tehran
  • These formal meetings are usually an indication that the latest round will be adjourned

PARIS: Parties negotiating a revival of the Iran nuclear deal will hold a formal meeting in Vienna on Sunday, the European Union said on Saturday.
Iran and six world powers have been negotiating in Vienna since April to work out steps for Washington and Tehran to take. The United States withdrew in 2018 from the pact, under which Iran accepted curbs on its nuclear programme in exchange for a lifting of many foreign sanctions against it.
Sunday's formal meeting comes more than a week after this round of talks resumed and is an indication that the talks are likely to be adjourned.
Officials over the week have indicated that differences remain on key issues.
"The Joint Commission of #JCPOA will meet on Sunday, June 20," Mikhail Ulyanov Russia's envoy to the talks said on Twitter.
"It will decide on the way ahead at the #ViennaTalks. An agreement on restoration of the nuclear deal is within reach but is not finalised yet."
The remaining parties to the deal - Iran, Russia, China, France, Britain, Germany and the European Union - meet in the basement of a luxury hotel.
The US delegation to the talks is based in a hotel across the street as Iran refuses face-to-face meetings, leaving the other delegations and EU to work as go-betweens.
Since former US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran, Tehran has embarked on counter measures, including rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, a potential pathway to nuclear bombs.